11. Real-Time Prediction of Hurricane-Induced Coastal Change Hazards

During an average summer, six hurricanes threaten the Atlantic and Gulf coasts of the United States and 1.6 make landfall. Recent evidence, however, suggests that hurricane occurrence is increasing. The period from 1995 to 2000 had the highest incidence of hurricanes on record—a doubling of occurrences in the Atlantic basin and a 2.5-times increase in major (Category 3 and above) events. Since the hypothesized controlling processes (i.e. increases in Atlantic-Basin water temperature and decreases in upper atmosphere wind shear) are multi-decadal phenomena, this enhanced activity will likely persist for decades to come.

The threatened Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico coasts include some of the fastest growing and largest metropolitan areas in the United States. During severe coastal storms, people and developments are impacted by coastal change processes; for example, as much as 100 m of shoreline retreat during a single event; the inundation of barrier islands by waves superimposed on storm surge; the incision of new inlets undermining structures and severing escape routes; and the destruction of protective sand dunes. The insular coasts of the Caribbean are also exposed to the increased threat of hurricane hazards including the failure of steep slopes due to saturation by excessive rainfall and/or undermining by wave action.

With accurate predictions of coastal-change hazards, coastal resource managers at the Federal, state and local levels can make better decisions about where to safely locate future coastal developments. With real-time predictions, emergency managers can determine when and where evacuation routes will become impassable, where and when specific areas will become hazardous.

The postdoctoral fellow will develop and test innovative means for predicting the impacts of hurricanes using state-of-the-art process-response models and assimilations of disparate data types such as lidar-derived high-resolution topography, spatial variations of coastal geomorphology, historical storm impacts, and real-time wave and storm surge measurements. The research results will be integrated into a real-time decision-support system for storm hazards that will forecast a hurricane’s probable regional-scale (hundreds of kilometers) impacts prior to landfall. This web-based system will be the first to conduct real-time forecasts of coastal-change hazards.

The Fellow will have ample opportunities for interdisciplinary collaborations in geology, oceanography, physics, statistics, spatial data analyses, numerical modeling, remote sensing and engineering. She/he will be a member of a team that includes researchers from the USGS, academia (Oregon State University and University of South Florida) and other federal agencies (NASA and NOAA).

The Fellow will be at the forefront of coastal hazards research in the United States and will participate in significantly improving our understanding of some of the most important and societal-relevant issues faced by the USGS.

Proposed Duty Station: St. Petersburg, FL

Areas of Ph.D.: Oceanography, coastal geology

Qualifications: Applicants must meet one of the following qualifications: Research Geologist, Research Oceanographer

(This type of research is performed by those who have backgrounds for the occupations stated above. However, other titles may be applicable depending on the applicant's background, education, and research proposal. The final classification of the position will be made by the Personnel specialist.)

Research Advisor: Asbury Sallenger, (727) 803-8747 x. 3015, asallenger@usgs.gov

Personnel Office contact: Rosetta Alexander, (703) 648-7468, ralexand@usgs.gov

Summary of Opportunities