14. The Economic Effects Of Volcanic-Ash Hazards On Aviation
Over the past 25 years, the threat to aviation from airborne volcanic ash has been widely recognized and documented. Volcanic eruptions threaten aviation safety when finely pulverized, glassy, abrasive rock debris ("ash") is explosively erupted to disperse as airborne clouds over long distances at cruise altitudes. The consensus of the aviation community is that if an ash cloud can be discerned, visually by a pilot or on satellite images, it should be avoided. Ash-cloud avoidance requires effective communication among diverse specialists -- volcanologists, meteorologists, atmospheric modelers, pilots, dispatchers, and air-traffic controllers -- and across global airspace boundaries.
The ash hazard to aviation is not a rare possibility on a worldwide scale, given that many major air routes overlie the world's volcanically active regions. It has been estimated that volcanic ash can be expected to be in air routes at altitudes greater than 9 km (30,000 ft) for roughly 20 days per year worldwide. From 1973 through 2003, a minimum of 100 encounters of aircraft with airborne volcanic ash have occurred, including eight cases involving temporary in-flight engine failure (two of which barely averted crashing). Because of the global scope of the ash hazard to aviation, an international approach has been developed to mitigate the threat under the aegis of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO). As part of this mitigation program, in the United States the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) collaborate to share data and continually refine communication protocols so that eruption and ash-hazard information quickly reaches commercial and military pilots, dispatchers, and air-traffic controllers.
The costs of the ash hazard to aviation are incompletely known. Some piece-meal data has been made public, but no systematic economic analysis has been published.
Research under this opportunity would focus on developing a model that explains the economic forces acting to impede or foster effective mitigation of the risks to aviation from volcanic activity. Specific activities would include: characterizing the different types of costs incurred by the aviation sector related to both avoiding and encountering ash, collecting data to quantify those costs, quantifying benefits (including prevented losses) of in-place global mitigation measures, and identifying cost-effective elements of mitigation.
A successful candidate can draw upon existing USGS compilations of ash/aircraft encounters and instances of airport disruptions, a collection of anecdotal economic data, and a broad range of contacts within the FAA, NOAA, ICAO, and the aviation sector cultivated by USGS scientists.
A successful candidate for this position must have a PhD in economics with a good understanding of the socioeconomic aspects of natural hazards and related risk mitigation.
Proposed Duty Station: Reston, VA
Areas of Ph.D.: Economics
Qualifications: Applicants must meet one of the following qualifications: Research Economist
(This type of research is performed by those who have backgrounds for the
occupations stated above. However, other titles may be applicable depending
on the applicant's background, education, and research proposal. The final
classification of the position will be made by the Personnel specialist.)
Research Advisor: Marianne Guffanti, (703) 648-6708, guffanti@usgs.gov
Personnel Office contact: Rosetta Alexander, (703) 648-7468, ralexand@usgs.gov
U.S. Department of the Interior, U.S. Geological Survey
URL: http://geology.usgs.gov/postdoc/2006/opps/opp14.html
Direct inquiries to Rama K. Kotra at rkotra@usgs.gov
Maintained by Mendenhall Postdoctoral Fellowship Program Web Team
Last modified: 12:06:24 Tue 24 Aug 2004
Privacy statement | General disclaimer | Accessibility
