23. Development of Quantitative Methods for Assessment of the Natural Hazard Vulnerability of the U.S. Coastal Zone

Coastal areas of the United States are threatened by multiple natural hazards that can lead directly to loss of life and property. Natural hazards affecting the U.S. coastline include: coastal erosion, marine inundation from storms, high waves, tsunamis, sea-level rise, inundation from coastal stream flooding, coastal landslides, and volcanic and seismic activity. Coastal hazards have been identified for many areas of the U.S. (for example see The Atlas of Natural Hazards in the Hawaiian Coastal Zone: http://pubs.usgs.gov/imap/i2761/) but quantitative models and assessment of both individual and multiple coastal hazard impacts are presently not available. In an effort to improve our understanding of the impact that hazards have on our coasts, we are seeking a postdoctoral researcher interested in developing methods and tools for a quantitative analysis of coastal hazards. The time-history of most natural hazard magnitude and occurrence is sufficiently well known that probablistic (or other) models can be developed to better quantify risks to specific coastal areas. The USGS has developed a probablistic approach to forecasting earthquakes which could serve as a possible model for our proposed work on coastal hazards.

In addition to modeling individual coastal hazards, we would also like the postdoctoral researcher to develop methods for assessing the vulnerability of a coast to multiple geologic hazards. An example of a possible study would be to develop quantitative assessments for different hazards and hazard ranking scheme for understanding their relative importance for a region. An obvious potential pilot area is the central Califonia coast, an area impacted by multiple hazards and with a good time-history of hazard impacts. The likelihood of each hazard impacting the region could be modeled and specific impacts forecast based on integration of a large number of factors that might include event time series, coastal geology, local geormorphlogy, atmostpheric and wave climate, sea-level histories, etc. The relative importance and potential impact for each hazard could then be determined and compared at a local to regional scale to national scale.

Specific approaches and data utilized would be up to the research fellow to develop with the support of a strong network of colleagues focused on understanding coastal hazards and development of coastal hazard assessment and mitigation tools. It is envisioned that results of the postdoctoral work will be used by other researchers studying coastal change and by coastal engineers, planners, and managers who are responsible for making coastal zone decisions.

A postdoctoral researcher is sought to work independently within a dynamic research group dedicated to improving our understanding of coastal processes, hazards, and long-term coastal evolution. There are abundant opportunities for collaboration and consultation with a large and diverse concentration of earth and marine scientists in the Monterey and San Francisco Bay areas. The successful postdoctoral fellow will be at the forefront of coastal hazard research in the United States.

Proposed Duty Station: Santa Cruz, CA

Areas of Ph.D.: Geology, Coastal Geology/Geomorphology, Geophysics, Oceanography

Qualifications: Applicants must meet one of the following qualifications: Research Geologist, Research Geophysicist, Research Oceanographer

(This type of research is performed by those who have backgrounds for the occupations stated above. However, other titles may be applicable depending on the applicant's background, education, and research proposal. The final classification of the position will be made by the Personnel specialist.)

Research Advisor(s): Tom Parsons, (650) 329-5074, tparsons@usgs.gov; Bruce Richmond, (831) 427-4731, brichmond@usgs.gov; Dan Hanes (831) 427-4718, dhanes@usgs.gov

Personnel Office contact: Marie Guillory, (650) 329-4112, guillory@usgs.gov

Summary of Opportunities