Table 10a.  U.S. Electricity Supply and Demand: Base Case

              (Billion Kilowatthours)

(Energy Information Administration\Short-Term Energy Outlook --October 2004)

 

 

2003

 

 

 

2004

 

 

 

2005

 

 

 

Year

 

 

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

2003

2004

2005

Net Electricity Generation

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  Electric Power Sector a

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

    Coal                                                    

485.6

446.7

526.3

489.4

492.9

462.3

516.8

492.1

506.5

467.8

530.9

499.5

1948.0

1964.1

2004.8

    Petroleum                                           

31.5

25.8

31.9

23.4

31.6

28.2

31.7

24.6

32.0

22.9

33.3

25.3

112.5

116.1

113.6

    Natural Gas                                        

116.9

124.6

190.5

118.7

121.9

150.2

187.6

132.1

129.1

150.6

202.8

135.8

550.6

591.9

618.2

    Nuclear                                               

190.1

183.2

202.3

188.2

198.2

191.3

206.1

191.3

196.8

192.9

207.5

192.6

763.7

786.9

789.7

    Hydroelectric                                      

60.0

80.0

61.9

58.7

63.9

67.3

60.8

63.1

70.0

84.1

67.5

65.4

260.6

255.1

287.1

    Other b                                                

13.0

13.8

13.9

14.5

14.6

15.7

15.6

15.4

14.9

15.3

16.1

16.1

55.1

61.4

62.4

      Subtotal                                            

897.1

874.0

1026.7

892.9

923.1

915.1

1018.6

918.7

949.3

933.7

1058.2

934.7

3690.7

3775.5

3875.9

  Other Sectors c                                     

40.2

37.3

38.8

41.0

39.3

40.1

42.0

40.9

40.3

40.4

42.6

41.1

157.3

162.4

164.3

  Total Generation                                   

937.3

911.3

1065.5

933.8

962.5

955.2

1060.6

959.5

989.6

974.1

1100.7

975.8

3848.0

3937.8

4040.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  Net Imports                                             

2.6

1.6

4.6

-2.4

-0.9

0.8

3.8

1.3

1.1

0.3

3.0

0.4

6.4

4.9

4.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  Total Supply                                         

940.0

912.9

1070.1

931.4

961.6

956.1

1064.4

960.8

990.7

974.4

1103.8

976.2

3854.4

3942.8

4045.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Losses and Unaccounted for d             

30.5

57.4

44.9

48.0

46.9

67.2

43.8

49.4

48.3

66.0

45.9

50.2

180.8

207.3

210.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Demand

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  Retail Sales e

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

    Residential                                          

337.5

273.4

377.6

291.4

339.2

283.2

361.4

304.4

346.8

290.6

379.4

308.0

1279.9

1288.2

1324.8

    Commercial f                                       

289.2

292.4

343.8

298.0

288.8

301.0

341.6

300.3

298.6

308.5

355.5

309.0

1223.4

1231.7

1271.6

    Industrial                                             

237.2

247.4

259.4

247.4

242.2

259.4

269.7

260.3

251.6

263.6

274.4

262.2

991.4

1031.6

1051.8

   Transportation g                                  

1.2

1.2

1.5

1.3

1.0

1.1

1.5

1.3

1.1

1.2

1.5

1.3

5.3

5.0

5.1

      Subtotal                                            

865.1

814.3

982.4

838.2

871.3

844.7

974.1

866.3

898.0

863.9

1010.9

880.6

3500.0

3556.4

3653.3

    Other Use/Sales h                              

44.4

41.2

42.8

45.2

43.4

44.2

46.4

45.1

44.5

44.6

47.0

45.4

173.7

179.1

181.4

      Total Demand                                   

909.5

855.5

1025.2

883.4

914.7

888.9

1020.5

911.4

942.4

908.5

1057.8

926.0

3673.6

3735.5

3834.7

aElectric utilities and independent power producers.

b “Other” includes generation from other gaseous fuels, geothermal, wind, wood, waste, and solar sources.

cElectricity generation from combined heat and power (CHP) facilities and electricity-only plants in the industrial and commercial sectors. 

dBalancing item, mainly transmission and distribution losses.

eTotal of retail electricity sales by electric utilities and power marketers.

           fCommercial sector, including public street and highway lighting, interdepartmental sales and other sales to public authorities. These items, along with transportation sector; electricity were formerly included in an “other” category, which is no longer provided. (See EIA ‘s Monthly Energy Review, Table 7.5, for a comparison of “Old Basis” and “New Basis” electricity retail sales.) Through 2003, data are estimated as the sum of “Old Basis Commercial” and approximately 95 percent of “Old Basis Other”; beginning in 2004, data are actual survey data.

           gTransportation sector, including sales to railroads and railways. Through 2003, data are estimated as approximately 5 percent of “Old Basis Other”; beginning in 2004, data are actual survey data.

            hDefined as the sum of facility use of onsite net electricity generation plus direct sales of power by industrial- or commercial-sector generators to third parties, reported annually in Table 7.5 of  the Monthly Energy Review (MER). Data for 2003 are estimates.

      Notes:  Minor discrepancies with other EIA published historical data are due to rounding.  Historical data are printed in bold; estimates and forecasts are in italics.  The forecasts were generated by simulation of the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System.

     Sources:  Historical data:  EIA: latest data available from EIA databases supporting the following reports: Electric Power Annual, DOE/EIA-0226 and Electric Power Monthly, DOE/EIA-0226.  Projections:  EIA, Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System database, and Office of Coal, Nuclear, Electric and Alternate Fuels (hydroelectric and nuclear).