|
Cover/Title Page
Organizational Chart
Office of the Director
Office of Administration and Research
Information and Technology Services
Forecast Research Division
Demonstration Division
Systems Development Division
Aviation Division
Modernization Division
International Division
Publications
Acronyms and Terms
Figures Listing
Contact the Editor
Nita Fullerton
Web Design:
Will von Dauster
John Osborn
Best Viewed With Internet Explorer
|
|
Dr. Michael J. Kraus, Chief
(Supervisory Meteorologist)
(303-497-5200)
Web Homepage: http://www-ad.fsl.noaa.gov/
Cherie L. Adams, Secretary Office Automation, 303-497-6122
Young S. Chun, Research Associate, 303-497-6426
Chris Fischer, Research Associate, 303-497-7451
Jim Frimel, Research Associate, 303-497-7429
Lisa Gifford, Programmer, 303-497-4274
Mark W. Govett, Computer Specialist, 303-497-6278
Joan E. Hart, Research Associate, 303-497-6882
Judy K. Henderson, Computer Scientist, 303-497-6940
Thomas Henderson, Computer Scientist, 303-497-6060
Mike Kay, Associate Scientist II, 303-497-4323
Ward Lemke, Systems Administrator, 303-497-7762
Andrew Loughe, Research Associate, 303-497-6211
Jennifer L. Mahoney, Meteorologist - Chief, Forecast Verification Branch, 303-497-6514
Chris Masters, Consultant, 479-243-9203
Jacques Middlecoff, Research Associate, 303-497-6034
Douglas Ohlhorst, Systems Administrator, 303-497-6922
Gregory Pratt, Computer Specialist - Chief, Aviation Systems: Development and Deployment Branch, 303-497-7237
Dennis M. Rodgers, Meteorologist, 303-497-6933
Dan Schaffer, Computer Scientist, 303-497-7252
Dr. Lynn A. Sherretz, Meteorologist - Chief, Aviation Requirements and Applications Branch, 303-497-5580
Beth Sigren, Research Associate, 303-497-7044
Dr. Christopher E. Steffen, Research Associate, 303-497-6247
Sher M. Wagoner, Senior Systems Analyst, 303-497-7254
(The above roster, current when document is published, includes government,
cooperative agreement, and commercial affiliate staff.)
Address: NOAA Forecast Systems Laboratory Mail Code: FS5
David Skaggs Research Center
325 Broadway
Boulder, Colorado 80305-3328
Objectives
The Aviation Division collaborates with the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), the National Weather Service (NWS) and the Departments of
Defense and Transportation. The product of these collaborations is an improved weather forecasting and visualization capability for use by military
and civilian forecasters, air traffic controllers, air traffic managers, airline dispatchers, and general aviation pilots. More opportunities to develop better
weather products now exist because of new observing systems, recent advances in understanding the atmosphere, and higher performance computing
capabilities.
The division comprises four branches:
Aviation Requirements and Applications Branch Defines requirements for generating and disseminating aviation weather
products; develops the capability to assess the quality of products generated automatically and by aviation weather forecasters, and the "guidance" forecasters
use to generate those products.
Aviation Systems: Development and Deployment Branch Manages enhancement, testing, fielding, and supporting of
advanced meteorological workstations for the NWS Aviation Weather Center (AWC); develops Aviation Digital Data Service (ADDS) Web products
(Figure 57) for use by the aviation community.
Figure 57. An ADDS screen showing the new experimental Forecast Icing Potential (FIP) Webpage,
http://adds.aviationweather.noaa.gov/.
Advanced Computing Branch Assures the continuing improvement of high-resolution numerical weather analysis and
prediction systems through research and development in high-performance computing.
Forecast Verification Branch Develops verification techniques, mainly focusing on aviation weather forecasts, and tools that allow
forecasters, researchers, developers, and program leaders to generate and display statistical information in near real time using the Real-Time
Verification System (RTVS).
In addition to its own activities, the Aviation Division provides funds for other FSL divisions to assist in achieving these goals.
Aviation Requirements and Applications Branch Lynn A. Sherretz, Chief
Objectives
The Aviation Requirements and Applications Branch develops requirements for advanced products and software tools for the aviation community.
The software tools include flight planning tools for pilots, air traffic controllers and managers, and airline dispatchers, and product generation and
grid interaction tools for aviation weather forecasters.
The branch serves as the focal point for coordinating activities with the FAA Aviation Weather Research Program (AWRP) and the U.S. Air Force
Weather Agency (AFWA), organizations which fund the development efforts. Two other functions involve leading the AWRP Product Development
Team for Aviation Forecasts and Quality Assessment (AF&QA;), and facilitating projects that provide the Air Force with globally relocatable,
high-resolution atmospheric analyses (using the Air Force’s global datasets).
Flight Planning Tools
In collaboration with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the NWS Aviation Weather Center (AWC), we continue to develop the Aviation
Digital Data Service (ADDS). Aviation decision-makers can use this Internet-based system to access text, graphics, grids and images of up-to-the-minute
observations, and forecasts of high-resolution aviation impact variables (AIVs) tailored to specific flight routes. The ADDS Website (Figure 58) is
available at http://adds.aviationweather.gov.
Figure 58. Screen showing a Java tool available at the ADDS Website,
http://adds.aviationweather.noaa.gov/.
Product Generation Tools
The branch is serving as the focal point for developing and evaluating the utility of advanced weather display products for FAA Traffic Management Units
(TMUs), which are tasked with managing air traffic in enroute and terminal environments. This effort includes developing and evaluating the utility of
software that enables NWS Center Weather Service Unit (CWSU) forecasters to collaborate in real-time to generate products for TMUs.
Program Development and Technology Transfer Project
The goal of the Program Development and Technology Transfer project is to expand FSL’s opportunities to develop new collaborative activities with domestic
and foreign research and operational groups within government, educational institutions, and the private sector. The project leaders will build on FSL’s expertise
in numerical weather prediction, data assimilation, high-performance computing, and observing systems. Advances in weather warning support, dissemination,
and graphical forecast editing are among the technologies planned for infusion into operational weather services during the coming years.
Accomplishments
Flight Planning Tools
During 2001, along with NCAR, the branch continued working on enhancements to ADDS. Examples of tasks undertaken include the implementation of an
electronic forum that enables ADDS developers to post news and ADDS users to pose questions, receive and respond to replies, and interact with other ADDS
users. A capability was developed for the generation of satellite images at AWC (instead of Boulder), a key step in making ADDS fully operational.
Assistance was also provided to the FAA William J. Hughes Technical Center in preparing for an evaluation of the utility of ADDS as an interactive visual
component of weather briefings for General Aviation (GA) pilots provided via telephone by FAA Flight Service Stations.
Product Generation Tools
The branch participated in a joint FAA/NWS working group to define requirements for weather information for FAA TMUs. Assistance was provided the
FAA in preparing a detailed research plan for rapid prototyping of weather products for TMUs and methods for collaboratively generating those products.
In coordination with the NWS Southern Region, a Test and Evaluation facility was set up at the Fort Worth, Texas, Air Route Traffic Control Center (ARTCC).
In preparation for prototyping advanced products for TMUs at the Fort Worth ARTCC, FX-Connect workstations were implemented and tested at the Fort
Worth CWSU and NWS Weather Forecast Office (WFO). Staff also set up these workstations to display map backgrounds relevant to aviation operations,
a graphical version of Convective SIGMETs, and the automated National Convective Weather Forecast (NCWF) product, which was recently developed by
the FAA Product Development Team for Convection and declared operational by the FAA and NWS.
The FX-Connect systems will access AWIPS data from the prototype AWIPS server at the NWS Aviation Weather Center in Kansas City. FX-Connect enables
forecasters at various locations and on various computer platforms to view concurrently and in real time basic AWIPS weather displays; invoke basic workstation
functions such as animating, zooming, and overlaying; and collaboratively generate (in real time) free-hand and icon-based graphical products. This system
can be readily adapted to ingest local data and display output generated by advanced algorithms and forecast models. It is also ideal for rapid prototyping
because it resides outside of the AWIPS firewall, thus providing the flexibility to make rapid enhancements.
Program Development and Technology Transfer Project
In keeping with FSL’s mission to transfer new technology and research findings to other NOAA offices and other users of environmental information, many
new program development activities are underway. A cooperative agreement between FSL and the Colorado State University’s Cooperative Institute for
Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA) was approved in 2001. The agreement was developed to provide a defined cooperative relationship with scientists at
both institutions working on solving operational weather problems. Government collaborators from all agencies now have a unique opportunity for applied
research experts to transfer the best of new scientific advances and technologies to their weather observing and forecasting systems.
FSL collaborated with the Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) and the Global Weather Center (GWC) to provide software systems, meteorological science,
and systems integration support for the development of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) community model.
FSL’s technology has been an important part of the Air Force’s re-engineering program. The Range Standardization and Automation (RSA) system will
serve the needs of launch weather support, daily operations, range safety, and other activities. The RSA project involves other FSL technology transfer tasks
that have been funded by Lockheed-Martin. FSL has developed a version of the AWIPS workstation to be deployed at the launch support sites at Cape
Kennedy, Florida; Patrick Air Force Base, Florida; and the Western Launch Range weather support unit at Vandenberg AFB, California.
Additional program development activities were begun with private partners, such as Lockheed Martin, involving the WorldWide Weather Workstation
(W4) and FX-Net systems.
Regarding the GPS-IPW program development, a collaboration was established with the GPS Positioning group at Schriever AFB, Colorado, the DOT
Federal Highways Administration (FHWA) and their Intelligent Transportation Systems.
Projections
Flight Planning Tools
The primary focus during 2002 will be to continue collaboration with NCAR and the Aviation Weather Center (AWC) in the implementation of ADDS
operationally at AWC, with complete implementation expected in 2003.
A key task will be to enable ADDS to conform to criteria for reliability, accessibility, security and archiving set forth by the FAA in order to qualify as an
approved provider of weather information over the Internet. The criterion for archiving requires reproducing the specific data requested by individual
users for at least 15 days following the request. To meet this recommendation, all products will be archived and each product request and ADDS response
will be recorded. It will not be feasible for ADDS (also the case for other Internet-based aviation weather systems) to ascertain if users receive or look at the
products.
Operational and software documentation will be prepared to assist AWC staff in fully supporting ADDS by familiarizing AWC with ADDS software and
hardware. Plans are to implement the same development environment at AWC that NCAR and FSL use, thereby ensuring that any "fixes" that AWC
makes have a path to future versions.
Product Generation Tools
Plans are underway to rapidly prototype convective products for FAA TMUs. Initially the prototype convective products will focus on combining the
attributes of Convective SIGMETS and the NCWF, which automatically generates a forecast every five minutes, valid for 60 minutes. A later development
will enable CWSU forecasters to generate a new prototype product on FX-Connect that complements the Collaborative Convective Forecast Product (CCFP)
by identifying convection that is not covered by the CCFP but may impact key jet routes or arrival and departure gates at DFW airport. The CCFP (valid
at 2, 4, and 6 hours) is generated every 4 hours by AWC with input from the CWSUs and the airlines.
Prototype products for the Fort Worth TMU will be generated by a Web server at FSL that ingests automated and/or value-added forecasts from the
FX-Connect system at the Fort Worth ARTCC, and generates images of prototype forecasts for display on the existing Web browser at the TMU.
The images will include the prototype forecasts and "official" Convective SIGMETs or CCFPs, as appropriate.
An FX-Connect workstation will be implemented at the Houston, Texas, CWSU, which will enable FSL to evaluate the utility of real-time collaboration
between the Fort Worth and Houston CWSUs.
Finally, the software required to display prototype inflight icing products will be prepared during fall 2002. The initial product will focus on the Current
Icing Potential (CIP) and the automated Integrated Icing Forecast Algorithm (IIFA) in context with conventional AIRMETs and SIGMETs for icing.
Program Development and Technology Transfer Project
FSL will actively seek collaborative and/or funded partnerships with:
- DOD, NOAA’s Space Environment Center, and the National Geodetic Survey to develop an integrated, high accuracy, real-time positioning
and navigation model.
- DOT, Federal Highways Adiminstration, and the Intelligent Transportation Systems program to integrate their National Differential GPS
(NDGPS) network into FSL’s existing GPS-IPW network for the purpose of increasing the density of the IPW observing system.
- NOAA/NWS to provide GPS-IPW education and additional data to forecasters and Science Operation Officers (SOOs) to increase the use
and understanding of the dataset.
- DOD to utilize the FSL-developed FX-Net compression techniques for gridded data transmission for DOD operational weather systems, the
Integrated Meteorological System (IMETS) and the Global Theater Weather Analysis and Prediction System (GTWAPS).
- DOD to utilize the Graphical Forecast Editor (GFE) applications in the DOD forecast workstations.
FSL will increase efforts to create new collaborations with other domestic and international research and operational groups in the private sector, government,
and educational institutions that can utilize mature technologies developed at FSL. Other outreach plans in support of program development include finding
additional venues for systems demonstrations and technical presentations and developing a Website that highlights collaborative project opportunities at FSL.
Return to Top of Aviation Division Section
Aviation Systems: Development and Deployment Branch Greg Pratt, Chief
Objectives
The Aviation Systems: Development and Deployment Branch is responsible for adding enhancements, testing, fielding, and operationally supporting
prototype aviation weather systems for Aviation Division projects. Current branch activities involve the Aviation Digital Data Service (ADDS) project,
the Enhanced Traffic Management System (ETMS) project, and the Traffic Management Unit (TMU) project.
Aviation Digital Data Service Project
The ADDS is a Web-based real-time aviation weather dissemination system
(http://adds.aviationweather.noaa.gov) with a primary objective to facilitate
a safer and more efficient National Airspace System (NAS). To accomplish this goal, the ADDS provides aviation decision-makers (pilots and dispatchers)
with easy, inexpensive, real-time access to the latest operational aviation weather observations and forecasts, along with experimental products based on
research funded by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Aviation Weather Research Program (AWRP). Users can view and retrieve aviation weather
in a variety of formats that they can tailor to fit their individual needs. The user can view and print text products and pregenerated graphics products, or
interactively query the ADDS site by running Java applets.
A secondary goal of the ADDS is to rapidly release new and improved aviation weather products to the aviation community. The ADDS meets this goal
by involving the user at an early stage in the development cycle. User feedback from the ADDS Advanced User Group, the ADDS Forum, and e-mail
determines design decisions and product usability. This means that end-users are involved in the requirements phase and determine whether a product
is useful by accessing it during the experimental portion of the development cycle. The end-user determines the needs and when they have been met.
The branch continues to work jointly with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the Aviation Weather Center to add functionality
and support the ADDS Website. The ADDS is funded through the Aviation Forecast and Quality Assessment (AF&QA;) Product Development Team by
the FAA Aviation Weather Research Program.
Enhanced Traffic Management System Project
The ETMS is a real-time aircraft tracking system being used operationally by all FAA air traffic control personnel to direct aircraft flow in the United
States NAS. Goals of the ETMS are to maintain save airways, help minimize delays, and conserve energy. Weather plays a key role in all three of
these areas. The branch has developed and operationally deployed the Aviation Weather Network, designed to add real-time weather information
to the ETMS for display on the Traffic Situation Display and provide automation support for strategic planning of the National Airspace System.
Work continues with the Volpe National Transportation Systems Center (the Volpe Center, funds ETMS) in integrating new aviation-tailored weather
products on the Aircraft Situation Display and upgrading the Aviation Weather Network to handle the latest improvements to the Rapid Update Cycle
(RUC) gridded datasets. The RUC grids are used to create displays for the Traffic Situation Display and provide automation support for strategic
planning of the National Airspace System. The RUC model, developed at FSL, is tailored for the aviation community.
Traffic Management Unit Project
The Traffic Management Unit project is a rapid prototyping effort designed to test and demonstrate the effective employment of developing science,
technology, and computer communication interfaces in developing new weather products for decision-makers at the Dallas-Fort Worth Air Route
Traffic Control Center (ARTCC). The Traffic Management Unit project will initially develop a wide range of high-resolution forecast products
specifically tailored to the ARTCC air traffic environment. These products will be developed in four phases: phase I will focus on convective
forecasts, phase II icing, phase III turbulence, and pase IV ceiling and visibility.
The Traffic Management Unit project supports two goals: 1) establish procedures for generating automated guidance products, and 2) share common
datasets among operational aviation forecasters at different locales, and demonstrate how the employment of collaborative forecasting methodologies
can lead to significant improvements in the accuracy and consistency of NWS-generated aviation forecast products. Accomplishing these objectives
will in the end produce a more efficient use of the National Airspace System, greater safety to the airline customer, and cost savings to the aviation community.
The branch continues to work with the Modernization Division and forecasters from the Dallas-Fort Worth Center Weather Service Unit at defining,
developing, and deploying automated forecast products to be used by traffic managers at the Dallas-Fort Worth ARTCC. The Traffic Management
Unit project is funded through the AF&QA; Product Development Team by the FAA Aviation Weather Research Program.
Accomplishments
Aviation Digital Data Service Project
This year work involved moving the operational support and maintenance of the ADDS to Aviation Weather Center developers and technicians.
A common code base was established among NCAR and FSL developers, and all Java applets are now a part of this code base. The AWIPS/Linux
system was modified to handle satellite data ingest/image creation, and this system was added to the ADDS product/process monitor. A new
version of the PIREPs (pilot reports) applet was implemented which takes advantage of the common code base and extends the code base by
adding functionality to the time slider bar to allow for composite PIREPs data views of up to six hours of data. The ADDS team is working with
Aviation Weather Center to move operational support to that center. Pilots and Flight Service Station personnel participated in a demonstration
to determine if ADDS could play a part in a preflight pilot weather briefing. At this time, ADDS will not be used by Flight Service Station personnel
to give pilot briefings. Work on hand-held device access to ADDS has been redirected to work with the private sector on hand-held access to ADDS.
The team is developing a TAF (Terminal Aerodrome Forecast) decoder that will store TAF messages in a relational database (MySql).
Enhanced Traffic Management System Project
The focus of ETMS work centered around obtaining funding to upgrade the Aviation Weather Network to support the 40-km RUC and 1-degree
AVN data grids. WSI International supplies the Volpe Center with the operational weather data that feed the Aviation Weather Network system.
Currently all of the weather data comes from the Family of Services datasets. In the WSI data stream, the 40-km RUC data have been put into an
80-km Eta model grid, and the AVN model data uses a 1-degree sparse grid. The branch worked with the Volpe Center and WSI to get the 40-km
RUC and 1-degree AVN data directly from NCEP. The branch upgraded the Northern Hemisphere Winds Aloft and Jet Stream products to take
full advantage of these higher resolution grids. Figure 59 shows the Jet Stream product overlayed on aircraft data in real time.
Figure 59. A screen from the Jet Stream product overlayed on aircraft data in real time.
Traffic Management Unit Project
Work on Phase I of the Traffic Management Unit project calls for enhancing the Linux-based AWIPS build 5.2.2 and FX-Collaborate systems to handle
aviation map backgrounds and convective forecast products. The following products have been added:
- Convective SIGMETs
- Convective Outlooks
- National Convective Weather Forecast
- National Convective Detection Product
- National Convective Detection Motion Vectors and Cloud heights
- Collaborative Convective Forecast Product
- VOR (VHF Omnidirectional Range) maps
- Jet Route maps
- ZFW TRACON scale and map background
- ZFW ARTCC scale
- ZHU TRACON scale and map background
- ZHU ARTCC scale.
The Linux-based AWIPS 5.2.2 automated image software has been updated to handle sizing of jpeg images, color changes to map backgrounds through
the use of the AWIPS configuration files, and zooming. A Website was created for disseminating the real-time data products created for the ARTCC traffic
managers at the Dallas-Fort Worth ARTCC, http://tmu.fsl.noaa.gov/.
Projections
Aviation Digital Data Service Project
An operational version of the ADDS will be implemented at the Aviation Weather Center, where it will be tested to ensure that the implementation and
support of the ADDS system passes FAA's Qualified Internet Communications Provider policy. An ADDS development and support environment will
be configured and installed at the Aviation Weather Center, and developers there will be trained on all aspects of the ADDS code. The Flight Path Tool
will be enhanced to display jet routes, VOR routes, overlay METAR icons, set vertical limits, and display grids over Alaska.
The Flight Path Tool will be converted into an application for faster user response. New satellite images will be created to cover most of the world. Also,
plans are to add radar images, the Collaborative Convective Forecast Product along with convective outlook products, and a new ceiling and visibility page.
Enhanced Traffic Management System Project
The team will work with the Volpe center to move all development efforts to that location.
Traffic Management Unit Project
Plans are to finish adding convective datasets to the Linux AWIPS and FX-Collaborate systems for Dallas-Fort Worth CWSU forecaster use. All of the
automated convective traffic manager products will be available for use on the Traffic Management Unit project Website. Automated convective traffic
manager products will be enhanced per feedback provided by Dallas-Fort Worth traffic managers and Center Weather Service Unit forecasters. Convective
datasets and displays on the Linux AWIPS and FX-Collaborate systems will be enhanced per feedback gathered from the Central Weather Service Unit
forecasters. The Icing phase (phase II) of the Traffic Management Unit project will be underway with the ingest and display of aviation icing products.
Return to Top of Aviation Division Section
Advanced Computing Branch Thomas B. Henderson, Chief
Objectives
The mission of the Advanced Computing Branch is to enable new advancements in atmospheric and oceanic sciences by making modern high-performance
computers easier to use. Modern parallel supercomputers, typically composed of commodity off-the-shelf components, offer a less costly alternative to traditional
vector supercomputers for the fast, efficient production of numerical forecasts. However, they are more difficult to use. The branch has developed software that
simplifies the porting of numerical geophysical models from FSL, other NOAA/OAR laboratories, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP),
and other organizations to modern parallel computing architectures. The culmination of this development is the Scalable Modeling System (SMS).
Using SMS, parallelism is added to a Fortran program by inserting directives in the form of Fortran comments. SMS then automatically translates this source
code into parallel source code, inserting calls to SMS subroutines that perform interprocess communication and other parallel operations as needed. Since the
directives are comments, a single source code can be maintained for both serial and parallel machines. Also, automatic source code translation allows complexity
to be hidden from users to a greater degree than more traditional subroutine-based approaches.
The SMS subroutines form a software layer between the prediction model’s source code and Message Passing Interface (MPI), the industry standard for
interprocessor communication. This layered approach provides SMS users with ease of use, minimal impact to their source code, portability, and high
performance. Source codes that include SMS directives are fully portable to most high-performance computers, Unix workstations, and symmetric
multiprocessors (SMPs). SMS subroutines provide high-performance scalable I/O supporting both native and portable file formats. Also, data ordering
in files is independent of the number of processors used. Further, since parallel operations are implemented as a layered set of routines, machine-dependent
optimizations have been made inside SMS without impacting the model source code. SMS also supports many user-specified optimizations. For example,
the execution of redundant computations to avoid time-consuming interprocessor communication will reduce run times in some cases. SMS also provides
tools to assist in testing and debugging of parallel programs.
Several atmospheric and oceanic analysis and prediction models have been parallelized using SMS, including Quasi-nonhydrostatic (FSL), Rapid Update
Cycle (FSL), Local Analysis and Prediction System (FSL), Regional Ocean Modeling System (Rutgers University/UCLA, Pacific Marine Environment
Laboratory), Global Forecast System (Central Weather Bureau, Taiwan), Typhoon Forecast System (Central Weather Bureau, Taiwan), NALROM
(Aeronomy Laboratory), Princeton Ocean Model (Environmental Technology Laboratory), Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (Los Alamos National
Laboratory/University of Miami), and Eta (NCEP). Computer architectures supported by the SMS include the IBM SP2, Cray T3E, SGI Origin 3000,
Sun E10000, HP Exemplar, Linux clusters (both Intel and Compaq Alpha), and other Unix workstations and SMPs.
Accomplishments
During 2001, SMS was improved in many ways and has attracted new users. The branch continues its collaborative efforts to support the development
of the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model, and has become involved in related efforts such as the Joint Modeling Testbed.
SMS was used to parallelize 1) an atmospheric chemistry code (NALROM) for the Aeronomy Laboratory, 2) a version of the Princeton Ocean Model for
the Environmental Technology Laboratory, and 3) the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model for Los Alamos National Laboratory.
The SMS parallel Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) was enhanced to support scientists at the Pacific Marine Environment Laboratory (PMEL).
The branch supported users of SMS ROMS at Rutgers University, PMEL, Arctic Region Supercomputing Center, and New Zealand’s National Institute for
Water and Atmospheric Research.
The branch continued development and enhancement of the functionality and portability of the SMS, and updated documentation with each new release.
The most significant newly developed features are additional runtime debugging tools, support for more flexible decompositions, and extended support for
Fortran90 syntax. The performance of the SMS interprocess communications was improved; tests using MPI and SMS versions of NCEP’s Eta model showed
the SMS version performance now exceeding NCEP’s hand-coded MPI version. Training on SMS was provided for scientists from NOAA and other organizations.
The branch continued development of the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. In close collaboration with NCAR and others, they worked on the
design and implementation of enhancements to the WRF I/O API, and on preliminary designs for a nesting API.
Support continued to be provided, as needed, for the parallel RUC and Quasi-Nonhydrostatic (QNH) models, for users of the High-Performance Computing
System at FSL, and for the HPCS management team regarding hardware and software upgrades. Research results were published in conference proceedings
of the Ninth European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts Workshop on the use of High-Performance Computing in Meteorology.
Collaborations began with NCEP to establish a Joint Modeling Testbed at FSL.
Parallelization of the fully nested version of the Typhoon Forecast System (TFS) for the Taiwan Central Weather Bureau was completed.
Projections
Plans for 2002 include:
- Use SMS to parallelize a coupled POM-ice model for NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center.
- Use SMS to parallelize other atmospheric and oceanic models as needed.
- Continue to develop and enhance SMS and to port it to new computer architectures.
- Continue to support users of SMS and of FSL’s High-Performance Computing System.
- Provide SMS user training.
- Continue to participate in the design and implementation of the WRF model.
- Continue collaboration with NCEP to establish a Joint Modeling Testbed at FSL.
- Publish results in conference proceedings and journals.
- Support acceptance testing and integration of the HPCS final upgrade.
- Support procurement activities for acquisition of FSL’s next HPCS.
Return to Top of Aviation Division Section
Forecast Verification Branch Jennifer Luppens Mahoney, Chief
Objectives
Verification is the key to providing information for improving weather forecasts. As part of FSL's involvement with the Federal Aviation Administration
(FAA) Aviation Weather Research Program (AWRP), the Forecast Verification Branch develops verification techniques, mainly focusing on aviation weather
forecasts, and tools that allow forecasters, researchers, developers and program leaders to generate and display statistical information in near real time using
the Real-Time Verification System (RTVS).
As part of the FSL strategic plan, the branch strives to maintain a strong verification program by working closely with other agencies, such as the National
Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Research Applications Program, National Weather Service (NWS), and the National Centers for Environmental
Prediction (NCEP). The technology developed through these close interactions can benefit all agencies by building and strengthening the verification programs.
Real-Time Verification System (RTVS)
Scientists at FSL are developing RTVS, in collaboration with scientists at NCAR and the NWS Aviation Weather Center (AWC), as a tool for assessing the
quality of weather forecasts. RTVS has been designed to provide a statistical baseline for weather forecasts and model-based guidance products, support
real-time forecast operations, model-based algorithm development, and case study assessments. To this end, RTVS was designed to ingest weather forecasts
and observations in near real time and store the relevant information in a relational database management system (RDBMS). A flexible easy-to-use Web-based
graphical user interface allows users quick and easy access to the data stored in the RDBMS. Users can compare various forecast lengths and issue times, over
a user-defined time period and geographical area, for a variety of forecast models and algorithms.
The RTVS has become an integral part of the Federal Aviation Administration Aviation Weather Research Program by providing a mechanism for monitoring
and tracking the improvements of AWRP-sponsored forecast products. RTVS runs operationally at the AWC providing feedback directly to forecasters and
managers in near real time.
Verification Methods
The branch is an active participant, in collaboration with NCAR, in developing and testing state-of-the-art verification methods, with an emphasis mainly on
aviation and precipitation forecast problems. New techniques have been developed for convection, icing, turbulence, ceiling and visibility, and precipitation.
Many of these techniques are applied to aviation forecasts that have been deemed "unverifiable." Nevertheless, the development and implementation of these
verification methods are leading to a better understanding and improvement in the aviation forecasts.
Accomplishments
During 2001, an end-to-end RTVS was delivered to the AWC. Three modules were implemented at AWC, including real-time processing of the AWC icing
and turbulence forecast/observation pairs using AWC decoded data, storage, and access of the data through the RDBMS and display through a newly
developed Web-based graphical user interface.
Extensive verification activities supporting the transition of the National Convective Weather Forecast (NCWF) and the Integrated Icing Diagnosis
Algorithm (IIDA) were completed. The results were used in the FAA/NWS decision process regarding whether to transfer the algorithm from an
experimental phase to a fully operational weather product that would be supported by NWS.
The RTVS was modified and statistics were generated for three real-time objective intercomparison exercises, including turbulence, convection, and icing.
The turbulence exercise was held from 8 February–31 March 2001, during which 14 algorithms over 5 domains at 2 different altitude bands were compared
to the operational turbulence forecast (that is, AIRMETs). More information is available at the main RTVS Webpage,
http://www-ad.fsl.noaa.gov/fvb/rtvs/index.html (Figure 60).
Figure 60. Screen from the main RTVS Webpage.
Projections
The Forecast Verification Branch will continue with real-time objective intercomparison exercises for turbulence, convection, and ceiling and visibility.
The RTVS will support the Convective Weather Demonstration and the International H20 (IHOP 2002) project. Extensive evaluation of the Integrated
Turbulence Forecast Algorithm (ITFA) will be completed and provided to the FAA/NWS Aviation Weather Technology Transfer Board for its consideration
to operational status within the NWS. The RTVS will be enhanced to include advanced diagnostic verification techniques that will allow users the ability
to partition the forecasting errors. New verification tools will be developed allowing forecasters the ability to investigate and interrogate the raw forecasts
and observations.
Return to Top of Aviation Division Section
|
|