HPC Verification Statistics

www.nws.noaa.gov

Site Map

News

Organization

Search field for local site information. Press Enter or select the go button to submit request. Search HPC
Analyses and Forecasts HPC Discussions Surface Analysis Days 1 - 2 Days 3 - 7 QPF Flood Outlook Winter Weather Heat Index Excessive Rainfall Tropical Products Selected Cities Daily Weather Map
Current Watches/ Warnings
Satellite and Radar Imagery Satellite Images National Radar
Verification HPC Verification NPVU Model Diagnostics
International Desks International Desks
Development and Training Development Experimental Products
HPC Overview Welcome Mission and Vision About the HPC Office and Staff HPC History About Our Products Accomplishments Other Sites FAQs
Contact Us About Our Site About Our Products

HPC Verification

Jump To
QPF's: 24-Hourly 6-Hourly Days 4-5 5-Day Total
Medium Range: Min Temps Max Temps Prob of Pcpn (PoP) Sea-level Pressure

Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts

How Threat Scores and Bias are Computed

24-Hourly QPF's

Monthly Record Threat Scores

Annual HPC Day-1 / Update / Day-2 Threat Scores and Observed Areal Coverage; Annual HPC Day-1 / Day-2 Bias

.50 inch (1972-2003)	1.00 inch (1965-2003)	2.00 inches (1970-2003)
Threat Bias	Threat Bias	Threat Bias

Annual HPC -vs- NWP Guidance Threat Scores 1993-2003

	1.00 inch
Day 1	Threat	Percent Improvement Over NWP

Monthly HPC -vs- NWP Guidance Threat Scores and Bias September 2003 to September 2004

	.50 inch	1.00 inch	2.00 inches
Day 1	Threat Bias	Threat Bias	Threat Bias
Day 2	Threat Bias	Threat Bias	Threat Bias
Day 3	Threat Bias	Threat Bias	Threat Bias

Monthly HPC Threat Score and Bias Comparisons (.50", 1.00", 2.00") September 2003 to September 2004

Day 1	Day 2	Day 3
Threat Bias	Threat Bias	Threat Bias

Monthly HPC Threat Score and Bias Comparisons (Day 1 / Day 2 / Day 3) September 2003 to September 2004

.50 inch	1.00 inch	2.00 inches
Threat Bias	Threat Bias	Threat Bias

Eta and GFS QPF Verification by Region

6-Hourly QPF's

Monthly Record Threat Scores

Monthly HPC -vs- NWP Guidance Threat Scores Update September 2003 to September 2004

00-06 Hours

.25 inch

.50 inch

Monthly HPC -vs- NWP Guidance Threat Scores Day 1 September 2003 to September 2004

06-12 Hours	.25 inch	.50 inch
12-18 Hours	.25 inch	.50 inch
18-24 Hours	.25 inch	.50 inch
24-30 Hours	.25 inch	.50 inch

Monthly HPC -vs- NWP Guidance Threat Scores Day 2 September 2003 to September 2004

30-36 Hours	.25 inch	.50 inch
36-42 Hours	.25 inch	.50 inch
42-48 Hours	.25 inch	.50 inch
48-54 Hours	.25 inch	.50 inch

Monthly HPC -vs- NWP Guidance Threat Scores Day 3 September 2003 to September 2004

54-60 Hours	.25 inch	.50 inch
60-66 Hours	.25 inch	.50 inch
66-72 Hours	.25 inch	.50 inch
72-78 Hours	.25 inch	.50 inch

HPC Percentage Improvement over NWP Guidance - Threat Scores September 2003 to August 2004

All 6-Hour Periods

.50 inch

Mean Absolute Error (MAE) Charts Day 1 6-hour Forecasts

HPC -vs- Guidance MAE for June 2004

HPC -vs- Guidance MAE for Jan-Dec 2003

Days 4-5 QPF's

Monthly HPC -vs- NWP Guidance Threat Scores and Bias September 2003 to September 2004

.50 inch	1.00 inch	2.00 inches
Threat Bias	Threat Bias	Threat Bias

Monthly HPC Threat Score and Bias Comparisons .50", 1.00", 2.00" September 2003 to September 2004

Threat

Bias

5-Day Total QPF's

Monthly HPC -vs- NWP Guidance Threat Scores and Bias September 2003 to September 2004

.50 inch	1.00 inch	2.00 inches	3.00 inches	4.00 inches
Threat Bias	Threat Bias	Threat Bias	Threat Bias	Threat Bias

Monthly HPC Threat Score and Bias Comparisons .50", 1.00", 2.00", 3.00", 4.00" September 2003 to September 2004

Threat

Bias

Medium-Range Forecasts

Overview of data plotted on annual charts

Minimum Temperatures

Annual Mean Absolute Error (MAE) Charts (1972 - 2003)

HPC MAE for days 3-7 min temp fcsts

HPC -vs- Guidance MAE for day 3 min temp fcsts

HPC -vs- Guidance MAE for day 4 min temp fcsts

HPC -vs- Guidance MAE for day 5 min temp fcsts

Monthly Performance Charts (September 2003 - September 2004)

HPC RMS errors for Days 3-7 min temp fcsts

HPC percent improvement over MOS MAE (adjusted stations only) for Days 3-7 min temp fcsts

HPC winning percent vs MOS for Days 3-7 min temp fcsts

Year-to-Date Performance Chart (January-September 2004)

HPC improvement over MOS MAE, including percentage of stations adjusted, for Days 3-7 min temp fcsts

Maximum Temperatures

Annual Mean Absolute Error (MAE) Charts (1972 - 2003)

HPC MAE for days 3-7 max temp fcsts

HPC -vs- Guidance MAE for day 3 max temp fcsts

HPC -vs- Guidance MAE for day 4 max temp fcsts

HPC -vs- Guidance MAE for day 5 max temp fcsts

Monthly Performance Charts (September 2003 - September 2004)

HPC RMS errors for Days 3-7 max temp fcsts

HPC percent improvement over MOS MAE (adjusted stations only) for Days 3-7 max temp fcsts

HPC winning percent vs MOS for Days 3-7 max temp fcsts

Year-to-Date Performance Chart (January-September 2004)

HPC improvement over MOS MAE, including percentage of stations adjusted, for Days 3-7 max temp fcsts

Probability of Precipitation (PoP)

Monthly Performance Charts (September 2003 - September 2004)

HPC Brier scores for days 3-7 PoP fcsts

HPC percent improvement over MOS Brier score (adjusted stations only) for days 3-7 PoP fcsts

HPC winning percent vs MOS for Days 3-7 PoP fcsts

Year-to-Date Performance Chart (January-September 2004)

HPC improvement over MOS MAE, including percentage of stations adjusted, for Days 3-7 PoP fcsts

Mean Sea Level Pressure (PMSL)

HPC Anomaly Correlations (1976-2003)
HPC -vs- Guidance Anomaly Correlations


NOAA/ National Weather Service National Centers for Environmental Prediction Hydrometeorological Prediction Center 5200 Auth Rd Camp Springs, Maryland 20746 Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Web Team	Disclaimer	Privacy Policy
Page last modified: Friday, 15-Oct-2004 01:48:20 UTC