|
Overview
Program DescriptionIn brief, The Current Employment Statistics
(CES) Survey is a monthly survey of business establishments which provides
estimates of employment, hours, and earnings data by industry for the
nation as a whole, all States, and most major metropolitan areas since
1939. This section focuses on the State and Area data. The CES survey is a
Federal-State cooperative endeavor in which State employment security
agencies prepare the data using concepts, definitions, and technical
procedures prescribed by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Top
Technical Note on CES Employment
Definitions. Employment data refer to persons on
establishment payrolls who receive pay for any part of the pay period
which includes the 12th of the month. Persons are counted at their place of work
rather than at their place of residence; those appearing on more than one
payroll are counted on each payroll. Establishments are classified in an
industry on the basis of their principal product or activity in accordance
with the most recent North American Industry Classification System Manual.
Method of estimation. The employment data are
estimated using a "link relative" technique in which a ratio (link
relative) of current-month employment to that of the previous month is
computed from a sample of establishments reporting for both months. The
estimates of employment for the current month are obtained by multiplying
the estimates for the previous month by these ratios.
Annual revisions. Employment estimates are adjusted
annually to a complete count of jobs, called benchmarks, derived
principally from tax reports which are submitted by employers who are
covered under state unemployment insurance (UI) laws. The benchmark
information is used to adjust the monthly estimates between the new
benchmark and the preceding one and also to establish the level of
employment for the new benchmark month. Thus, the benchmarking process
establishes the level of employment, and the sample is used to measure the
month-to-month changes in the level for the subsequent months.
Seasonal adjustment. Seasonally adjusted payroll
employment totals for states are computed by aggregating independently
adjusted series for supersectors. Revisions of historical data
for the most recent 5 years are made once a year, coincident with annual
benchmark adjustments.
Caution on aggregating state data. State estimation
procedures are designed to produce accurate data for each individual
state. BLS independently develops a national employment series; state
estimates are not forced to sum to national totals nor vice versa. Because
each state series is subject to larger sampling and nonsampling errors
than the national series, summing them cumulates individual state level
errors and can cause significant distortions at an aggregate level. Due to
these statistical limitations, BLS does not compile a "sum-of-states"
employment series, and cautions users that such a series is subject to a
relatively large and volatile error structure.
Reliability of the estimates
All estimates from a sample survey are subject to sampling and other
types of errors. Sampling error is a measure of sampling variability--that
is, variation that occurs by chance because a sample rather than the
entire population is surveyed. Survey data are also subject to nonsampling
errors, such as those which can be introduced into the data collection and
processing operations. Estimates not directly derived from sample surveys
are subject to additional errors resulting from the special estimation
processes used. The sums of individual items may not always equal the
totals shown in the same tables because of rounding.
Employment estimates. Standard errors associated with
1-, 3-, and 12-month changes in employment for Statewide supersectors and
for total nonfarm at the MSA level can be found at http://www.bls.gov/sae/790stderr.htm. Information on recent benchmark revisions for states is
available upon request.
Additional Information More complete information on
the technical procedures used to develop these estimates and additional
data appear in the BLS
Handbook of Methods, Chapter 2. and Employment and Earnings,
which is available by subscription for $53.00 a year from the
Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington,
DC 20402 (telephone 202-783-3238). Estimates of labor force, employment,
and unemployment estimates for all states, metropolitan areas, labor
market areas, counties, cities with a population of 25,000 or more, and
other areas used in the administration of various Federal economic
assistance programs are provided in the report, Unemployment in States
and Local Areas, which is available monthly in microfiche form by
subscription from the U.S. Government Printing Office for $23.00 a year.
The order number for a subscription is 029-001-81003-2. Information in
this release will be made available to sensory impaired individuals upon
request. Voice phone: 202-691-5200; The Federal Relay Service:
1-800-877-8339.
Top
Data Uses
CES estimates are among the earliest economic information available to
analyze current economic conditions. Because of this, CES estimates are
heavily used in both the private and public sector. Below is a short list
of some of the uses for CES estimates:
Private Sector
- To guide decisions on plant location, sales, and purchases;
- To compare your business and the industry or economy as a whole;
- To negotiate labor contracts based upon industry or area hourly
earnings and weekly hours series;
- To determine the employment base of States and areas for bond
ratings;
- To detect and plan for swings in the business cycle using the
average weekly hours series;
Public Sector
- To evaluate the economic health of State and areas;
- To guide monetary policy decisions;
- To assess the growth of industries;
- To forecast tax revenue for States and areas;
- To measure employment, hours, and earnings as a means of determining
growth in the economy;
Top
Related Research
Shipp, Kenneth W. and David M. Talan, Geographic Estimates from the
Current Employment Statistics Survey, 41st Regional Science Association
International Meetings, Niagara Falls, Canada, November 1994.
Scott, Stuart, George Stamas, Thomas J. Sullivan, and Paul Chester,
Seasonal Adjustment of Hybrid
Economic Time Series, American Statistical Association, Toronto,
Canada, August 1994.
Top
Metropolitan Area Concepts and Standards
The accompanying lists present the titles and components of official
metropolitan areas (MAs). The U.S. Office of Management and Budget
defines MAs according to published standards that are applied to Census Bureau data. Three lists concern
areas designated by the OMB as metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs),
consolidated metropolitan statistical areas (CMSAs), and primary
metropolitan statistical areas (PMSAs). A fourth list presents
information for New England county metropolitan areas (NECMAs).
The general concept of an MA is that of a core area containing a large
population nucleus, together with adjacent communities having a high
degree of economic and social integration with that core. Currently
defined MAs are based on application of 1990 standards (which appeared in
the Federal Register on March 30, 1990) to 1990 decennial census data.
These MA definitions were announced by OMB effective June 30, 1993.
Standard definitions of metropolitan areas were first issued in 1949 by
the then Bureau of the Budget (predecessor of OMB), under the designation
"standard metropolitan area" (SMA). The term was changed to "standard
metropolitan statistical area" (SMSA) in 1959, and to "metropolitan
statistical area" (MSA) in 1983. The current collective term "metropolitan
area" (MA) became effective in 1990. OMB has been responsible for the
official metropolitan areas since they were first defined, except for the
period 1977 to 1981, when they were the responsibility of the Office of
Federal Statistical Policy and Standards, Department of Commerce.
The standards for defining metropolitan areas were modified in 1958,
1971, 1975, 1980, and 1990.
Defining MSAs, CMSAs, and PMSAs. The current standards provide that
each MSA must include at least:
- One city with 50,000 or more inhabitants, or
- A Census Bureau-defined urbanized area (of at least 50,000
inhabitants) and a total metropolitan population of at least 100,000
(75,000 in New England).
Under the standards the county (or
counties) that contains the largest city becomes the central county
(counties), along with any adjacent counties that have at least 50 percent
of their population in the urbanized area surrounding the largest city.
Additional "outlying counties" are included in the MSA if they meet
specified requirements of commuting to the central counties and other
selected requirements of metropolitan character (such as population
density and percent urban). In New England, the MSAs are defined in terms
of cities and towns rather than counties.
An area that meets these requirements for recognition as an MSA and
also has a population of one million or more may be recognized as a CMSA
if: 1) separate component areas can be identified within the entire area
by meeting statistical criteria specified in the standards, and 2) local
opinion indicates there is support for the component areas. If recognized,
the component areas are designated PMSAs, and the entire area becomes a
CMSA. (PMSAs, like the CMSAs that contain them, are composed of
individual or groups of counties outside New England, and cities and towns
within New England.) If no PMSAs are recognized, the entire area is
designated as an MSA. As of the June 1993 OMB announcement, there were 250
MSAs, and 18 CMSAs comprising 73 PMSAs in the U.S. (In addition, there were 3
MSAs,
1 CMSA, and 3 PMSAs in Puerto Rico; MAs in Puerto Rico do not appear in
these tables.)
The largest city in each MSA/CMSA is designated a "central city," and
additional cities qualify if specified requirements are met concerning
population size and commuting patterns. The title of each MSA consists of
the names of up to three of its central cities and the name of each State
into which the MSA extends. However, a central city with less than
one-third the population of the area's largest city is not included in an
MSA title unless local opinion desires its inclusion. Titles of PMSAs
also typically are based on central city names but in certain cases
consist of county names. Generally, titles of CMSAs are based on the
names of their component PMSAs.
A 1990 census list, CPH-L-145, showing 1990 and 1980 populations for
current MAs and their component counties or New England subcounty areas
is available through the Statistical Information Office, Population
Division, (301) 763-5002. A 1990 census Supplementary Report, 1990
CPH-S-1-1, Metropolitan Areas as Defined by the Office of Management and
Budget, June 30, 1993, contains extensive population and housing
statistics for the current MAs and is available from the U.S. Government
Printing Office (GPO) (stock number 003-024-08738-3). Also available from
the GPO is the Census Bureau's wall map for the 1993 MAs (stock number
003-024-08740-5).
Defining NECMAs. The OMB defines NECMAs as a county-based alternative
for the city- and town-based New England MSAs and CMSAs. The NECMA for
an MSA or CMSA includes: 1) the county containing the first-named city in
that MSA/CMSA title (this county may include the first-named cities of
other MSAs/CMSAs as well), and 2) each additional county having at least
half its population in the MSAs/CMSAs whose first-named cities are in
the previously identified county. NECMAs are not identified for
individual PMSAs. There are twelve NECMAs, including one for the
Boston-Worcester-Lawrence CMSA and one for the portion of the New
York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island CMSA in Connecticut.
Central cities of a NECMA are those cities in the NECMA that qualify as
central cities of an MSA or a CMSA. NECMA titles derive from names of
central cities of MSAs/CMSAs.
Changes in MA definitions over time. Changes in the definitions of MAs
since the 1950 census have consisted chiefly of (1) the recognition of new
areas as they reached the minimum required city or area population; and
(2) the addition of counties or New England cities and towns to existing
areas as new census data showed them to qualify. Also, former separate MAs have been merged with other areas, and occasionally territory has
been transferred from one MA to another or from an MA to nonmetropolitan
territory. The large majority of changes have taken place on the basis of
decennial census data, although the MA standards specify the bases for
intercensal updates.
Because of these changes in definition, users must be cautious in
comparing MA data from different dates. For some purposes, comparisons of
data for MAs as defined at given dates may be appropriate.
- Metropolitan Areas and
Standards
- This list contains information on areas designated by the OMB as
metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs), consolidated metropolitan
statistical areas (CMSAs), and primary metropolitan statistical areas (PMSAs).
- New England
Metropolitan Areas and Standards
- This list contains information on areas designated by the OMB for
New England county metropolitan areas (NECMAs).
Top
Last Modified Date: September 29, 2003
|
