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Center for the Study of Intelligence
Central Intelligence Agency
2001

CIA's Analysis Of The Soviet Union, 1947-1991

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Cover: CIA's Analysis of the Soviet Union, 1947-1991

Table of Contents

Preface
Introduction
Editors and Contributors to this Volume

Origins of CIA's Analysis of the Soviet Union
Author's Comments: Donald Steury

  1. ORE 22-48, April 1948, Possibility of Direct Soviet Military Action During 1948
  2. ORE 58-48, July 1948, The Strategic Value to the USSR of the Conquest of Western Europe and the Near East (to Cairo) Prior to 1950
  3. ORE 22-48, September 1948, (Addendum) Possibility of Direct Soviet Military Action During 1948-49
  4. ORE 46-49, May 1949, Possibility of Direct Soviet Military Action During 1949
  5. SE-16, October 1951, The Strength and Capabilities of Soviet Bloc Forces to Conduct Military Operations Against NATO
  6. CIA Intelligence Report, March 1953, Intelligence on the Soviet Bloc

Analyzing Soviet Politics and Foreign Policy
Author's Comments: Douglas Garthoff

  1. NIE 11-4-54, September 1954, Soviet Capabilities and Probable Courses of Action Through Mid-1959
  2. CIA/SRS-1, June 1956, The 20th CPSU Congress in Retrospect: Its Principal Issues and Possible Effects on International Communism
  3. NFAC/ORPA Memorandum for Director, 21 December 1961, An Appraisal of Soviet Intentions
  4. NIE 11-69, February 1969, Basic Factors and Main Tendencies in Current Soviet Policy
  5. NIE 11-72, April 1972, Soviet Foreign Policies and the Outlook for US-Soviet Relations
  6. OPR Research Study, 1 October 1975, Changing Soviet Perceptions of World Politics and the USSR's International Role
  7. NFAC/ORPA Memorandum, 19 October 1978, The Impact of a Polish Pope on the USSR
  8. SNIE 11/2-81, May 1981, Soviet Support for International Terrorism and Revolutionary Violence
  9. SOVA Research Paper, December 1982, Soviet Society in the 1980s: Problems and Prospects
  10. Intelligence Assessment, February 1987, Gorbachev's Domestic Challenge: The Looming Problems

CIA's Analysis of Soviet Science and Technology
Author's Comments: Clarence Smith

  1. Intelligence Memorandum No. 237, October 1949, Capabilities of the USSR in Air-to-Air Guided Missiles and Related Proximity Fuses
  2. Scientific Intelligence Memorandum (SIM), December 1957, Future Soviet Earth Satellite Capabilities
  3. SIM, November 1958, Geophysical and Astrophysical Instrumentation of Soviet Sputniks I, II, and III
  4. NIE 11-5-59, September 1959, Soviet Capabilities in Guided Missiles and Space Vehicles
  5. Memorandum, June 1964, The Soviet Reconnaissance Satellite Program
  6. NIE 11-8-64, October 1964, Soviet Capabilities for Strategic Attack
  7. NIE 11-3-65, November 1965, Soviet Strategic Air and Missile Defenses
  8. NIE 11-67, June 1967, Soviet Military Research and Development
  9. Scientific and Technical Intelligence Report (STIR) 1391/64, March 1986, Soviet Laser Chemistry Research and Applications
  10. STIR, May 1986, Soviet Quest for Supercomputing Capabilities
  11. SWM 86-20036 Intelligence Memorandum, June 1986, The Krasnoyarsk Radar: Closing the Final Gap in Ballistic Missile Early Warning
  12. DI 86-10016, Intelligence Report, September 1986, The Soviets Weapon Industry: An Overview
  13. SWM 88-20026, Intelligence Memorandum, August 1988, US Stealth Programs and Technology: Soviet Exploitation of the Western Press
  14. SW 91-10069 Technical Intelligence Report, October 1991, The Flat Twin ABM Radar: Not as Capable as Previously Believed

Assessing Soviet Economic Performance
Author's Comments: James Noren

  1. CIA/RR 53, December 1954, Long-Run Soviet Economic Growth
  2. CIA/RR 87, January 1957, The New Lands Program in the USSR
  3. CIA/ER 61-15, April 1961, Soviet Military Expenditures by Major Missions, 1958-65
  4. ER IR 70-10, March 1970, Investment and Growth in the USSR
  5. ER IR 74-2, Intelligence Report, February 1974, Soviet Economic and Technological Benefits from Détente
  6. Memorandum, S-Project, 16 September 1975, The Soviet Grain Deficit
  7. ER 77-10147, Intelligence Memorandum, March 1977, The Impending Soviet Oil Crisis
  8. ER 77-10436U, July 1977, Soviet Economic Problems and Prospects
  9. ER 77-10769, December 1977, Organization and Management in the Soviet Economy: The Ceaseless Search for Panaceas
  10. SOV 82-10120, Intelligence Assessment, August 1982, Outlook for the Siberia-to-Western Europe Natural Gas Pipeline
  11. SOV 87-10036X Intelligence Assessment, July 1987, Gorbachev: Steering the USSR into the 1990s

Estimating Soviet Military Power
Author's Comments: Raymond Garthoff

  1. SNIE 11-14-61, November 1961, The Soviet Strategic Military Posture, 1961-1967
  2. NIE 11-14-62, December 1962, Capabilities of the Soviet Theater Forces
  3. Intelligence Memorandum, April 1972, Soviet Defense Policy, 1962-1972
  4. SR RP73-1, June 1973, Soviet Nuclear Doctrine: Concepts of Intercontinental and Theater War
  5. Paper, February 1976, The Track Record in Strategic Estimating: An Evaluation of the Strategic National Intelligence Estimates, 1966-1975
  6. NI IIM 80-10017JX, October 1980, The Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan: Implications for Warning
  7. SOV 89-10031, April 1989, Intelligence Forecasts of Soviet Intercontinental Attack Forces: An Evaluation of the Record
  8. SR 81-10035X, April 1981, Intelligence Assessment, The Development of Soviet Military Power: Trends Since 1965 and Prospects for the 1980s

[Erratum for page 305 – supplies missing page xxiii of Document 49]

 

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