When does a drought begin?
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USGS Frequently Asked Questions

Question: When does a drought begin?

Answer:

The beginning of a drought is difficult to determine. Several weeks, months, or even years may pass before people know that a drought is occurring. The end of a drought can occur as gradually as it began. Dry periods can last for 10 years or more. During the 1930's, most of the United States was much drier than normal. In California, the drought extended from 1928 to 1937. In Missouri, the drought lasted from 1930 to 1941. That extended dry period produced the "Dust Bowl" of the 1930's when dust storms destroyed crops and farms.

The first evidence of drought usually is seen in records of rainfall. Within a short period of time, the amount of moisture in soils can begin to decrease. The effects of a drought on flow in streams and reservoirs may not be noticed for several weeks or months. Water levels in wells may not reflect a shortage of rainfall for a year or more after a drought begins.

Reference: Moreland, 1993, Drought: U.S. Geological Survey Water Fact Sheet, Open-File Report 93-642, 2

Source of this FAQ:
http://md.water.usgs.gov/faq/drought.html#WX02

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