CONTENTS

I. OVERVIEW

A. INTRODUCTION

B. HIGHLIGHTS

C. TRUST FUND FINANCIAL OPERATIONS

1. Income

2. Expenditures

3. Trust Fund Assets

D. INTRODUCTION TO ACTUARIAL ESTIMATES

E. ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC ASSUMPTIONS

1. Economic Assumptions

2. Demographic Assumptions

F. SHORT-RANGE ACTUARIAL ESTIMATES

1. OASI Trust Fund

2. DI Trust Fund

3. OASI and DI Trust Funds, Combined

G. LONG-RANGE ACTUARIAL ESTIMATES

1. Annual Income Rates, Cost Rates, and Balances

2. Summarized Income Rates, Cost Rates, and Balances

3. Trust Fund Ratios

4. Test of Long-Range Close Actuarial Balance

H. CONCLUSION

1. Short-Term Status

2. Long-Term Status

3. Recommendations

II. ACTUARIAL ANALYSIS

A. SOCIAL SECURITY AMENDMENTS SINCE
THE 1998 REPORT

B. DESCRIPTION OF THE TRUST FUNDS

C. SUMMARY OF THE OPERATIONS OF THE OLD-AGE AND
SURVIVORS INSURANCE AND DISABILITY INSURANCE
TRUST FUNDS, FISCAL YEAR 1998

1. Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund

2. Disability Insurance Trust Fund

3. Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Disability
Insurance Trust Funds, Combined

D. PRINCIPAL ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC ASSUMPTIONS

1. Economic Assumptions

a. GDP, Labor Productivity, and Labor Force Growth

b. Unemployment Rate

c. Inflation

d. Growth in Wages

e. Trust Fund Interest Rate

2. Demographic Assumptions

a. Fertility Rate

b. Death Rate and Life Expectancy

c. Immigration

E. AUTOMATIC ADJUSTMENTS

F. ACTUARIAL ESTIMATES

1. Operations and Status of the Trust Funds During
the Period October 1, 1998, to December 31, 2008

a. OASI Trust Fund Operations

b. DI Trust Fund Operations

c. Combined OASI and DI Trust Fund Operations

2. Long-Range Actuarial Status of the Trust Funds

a. Annual Income Rates, Cost Rates, and Balances

b. Summarized Income Rates, Cost Rates, and Balances

c. Test of Long-Range Close Actuarial Balance

d. Income and Cost Rates by Component

e. Comparison of Workers to Beneficiaries

f. Trust Fund Ratios

g. Reasons for Change in Actuarial Balance
From Last Report

G. LONG-RANGE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

1. Total Fertility Rate

2. Death Rates

3. Net Immigration

4. Real-Wage Differential

5. Consumer Price Index

6. Real Interest Rate

7. Disability Incidence Rates

8. Disability Termination Rates

H. ASSUMPTIONS AND METHODS UNDERLYING THE
ACTUARIAL ESTIMATES

1. Total Population

2. Covered Population

3. Average Earnings, Inflation, and Real Interest Rate

4. Taxable Payroll and Taxes

5. Insured Population

6. Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Beneficiaries

7. Disability Insurance Beneficiaries

8. Average Benefits

9. Benefit Payments

10. Administrative Expenses

11. Railroad Retirement Financial Interchange

12. Benefits to Uninsured Persons

13. Military-Service Transfers

14. Income From Taxation of Benefits

III. APPENDICES

A. ACTUARIAL ESTIMATES FOR THE OASDI AND HI
PROGRAMS, COMBINED

B. LONG-RANGE ESTIMATES OF SOCIAL SECURITY
TRUST FUND OPERATIONS IN DOLLARS

C. LONG-RANGE ESTIMATES OF SOCIAL SECURITY
TRUST FUND OPERATIONS AS A PERCENTAGE
OF GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT

D. TEN YEAR HISTORY OF ACTUARIAL BALANCE ESTIMATES

E. ACTUARIAL ANALYSIS OF BENEFIT DISBURSEMENTS
FROM THE FEDERAL OLD-AGE AND SURVIVORS
INSURANCE TRUST FUND WITH RESPECT TO
DISABLED BENEFICIARIES

F. FEDERAL REGISTER NOTICE

G. GLOSSARY

H. STATEMENT OF ACTUARIAL OPINION