What distinguishes the CES geographic data from
other economic data? Are there potential problems with using the data?
Advantages of CES Geographic Data
CES data
are a coincident economic indicator and are often cited in
national and local newspapers, magazines, and reports. This press
generates enthusiasm, curiosity and a wealth of outside material for
supplementary reading. The College of Business Administration at the
University of South Carolina uses seasonally adjusted employment as an
indicator of current employment trends in South Carolina. The regional
Federal Reserve Banks use CES data in easy-to-understand economic
applications. For example, the edition of the Southwest Economy
from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas used employment and unemployment
data in two different articles: one explaining the Phillips curve and
another describing the changing job market. Students and faculty can write
the regional FRBs to be placed on their mailing lists. The Philadelphia,
Dallas, Boston, Cleveland, and San Francisco FRBs provide excellent
articles for undergraduate students.
CES data are tangible and versatile. Employment,
hours, and earnings data can be used to study abstract economic concepts
which students can more easily comprehend with the use of data. Students
often need help in seeing how formal models can be used to explain the
real world economy. Business cycles, the effects of shocks in the economy,
and the impact of policy changes are examples of concepts that are more
readily understood when using CES data. Also, combined with data from
other sources, such as output data from the national accounts, they can be
used to compute productivity and other measures. Primarily, the concept of
employment is easy to comprehend, which permits a wide range of study and
understanding by graduate and undergraduate students, policy makers, and
business people. Data can be used for projects in labor economics, time
series analysis, business cycle theory, statistics, geography, urban
planning, and public policies.
CES data invite comparisons and analysis. CES data
provides complete coverage and consistently derived methodology at the state and area levels for employment in
major industries allowing for interstate and inter-area comparisons using
CES data alone or in conjunction with other economic data. They allow one
to compare growth patterns across states and regions. One can relate
cyclical changes to geographic employment changes. For example the 1990-91
recession did not affect states and regions equally or at the same time.
Employment declines started in the Northeast and spread along the Atlantic
and Pacific coasts. The Midwest was largely unaffected. These diverse
movements among states show how the mixture of industry, migration, and
public policies affect employment. For this type of study, CES data can be
combined with and compared to census migration data, immigration data, and
public policy data that affect economic activity.
CES data are affordable. They are collected,
tabulated, and distributed as part of the BLS and States' mission to
provide economic data to policy makers, business, labor, and the public.
Subscriptions are inexpensive and data on Internet are free. Since CES
data are time series data, forecasters are able to depend on a consistent
series to use in their modeling applications without incurring excessive
costs.
Caveats
Users should be aware of the intricate
revision process which the CES estimates undergo. Preliminary monthly,
final monthly, post benchmark projection, and final benchmark data are
constructed for each monthly estimate. Analysis using estimates before
they are final benchmarked estimates is affected by subsequent revisions.
Users of time series CES data should also review the entire time-series
file to note any NAICS or MSA administrative breaks where reconstruction of
series was not possible. Breaks will only be noted on the month where the
time series break occurs. For example, a comparison of total nonfarm
employment for the Washington D.C. metropolitan area between 1980 and 2003
actually involves multiple definitions of the official metropolitan area.
As mentioned earlier, the CES national estimates are independently
produced and are not an aggregation of statewide data. Therefore users
cannot disaggregate or compare CES national economic movements to state,
regional, or metropolitan area CES estimates.
CES data are not to be confused with data from the Current Population
Survey (CPS) which is a household survey. The CES survey counts jobs; the
CPS counts people. A worker with two jobs is counted twice in the CES but
only once in the CPS.
Geographic hours and earnings data from the CES are limited in industry
coverage and scope. The only extensive industry coverage is in
manufacturing. CES hours and earnings data are also limited to money wages
of production workers in manufacturing. Researchers looking at total labor
costs and total compensation should be aware of these limitations.
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I have a question, but it is not on this
list...
If you have a question related to the Current
Employment Statistics Survey dealing with State and area data, feel free
to send your question to sminfo@bls.gov.
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I want to learn more about your interesting survey;
can you provide me with some references so I can explore on my
own?
Barth, Molly E., "Revisions to the Current Employment Statistics
State and Area Estimates Effective January 2003," Employment and
Earnings, March 2003.
Barth, Molly E., "Recent changes in the
State and Metropolitan Area CES survey," Monthly Labor Review,
June 2003.
BLS Handbook of Methods, April 1997.
Current Employment Statistics State Operating Manual, October
1989 (with annual updates).
Dahlin, Brian, "Revisions in State
Establishment-Based Employment Estimates Effective January 2003," Employment
and Earnings, May 2003.
Dagum, Estela Bee. The X-11 ARIMA Seasonal Adjustment Method.
Ottawa, Statistics Canada, January 1983, Statistics Canada Catalogue No.
12-564E.
Employment and Earnings, monthly.
Employment, Hours, and Earnings, United States, 1909-90,
volumes I and II, Bulletin 3270, March 1991, annual supplement, August
1992.
Employment, Hours, and Earnings, States and Areas , 1987-94,
September 1994.
Green, Gloria P., "Comparing Employment Estimates from Household and
Payroll Surveys," Monthly Labor Review, December 1969.
Kropf, Jurgen, Strifas, Sharon and Traetow, Monica, Accounting for
Business Births and Deaths in CES: Bias vs. Net Birth/Death Modeling,
2002.
Manual on Series Available and Estimating Methods, BLS Current
Employment Statistics Program, March 1994.
Morisi, Teresa L. "Recent changes in the National CES
survey," Monthly Labor Review, June 2003.
National Commission on Employment and Unemployment Statistics.
Counting the Labor Force, 1979.
Last Modified Date: September 29, 2003