BTS 27-04                                                                  
Contact: Dave Smallen, Tel.: 202-366-5568
Wednesday, October 6, 2004 

BTS Releases July Transportation Services Index (TSI)
Combined Index and Passenger Index at New Highs

            The Transportation Services Index (TSI) reached the highest level in the 14-year period covered by the index with a 0.4 percent rise in July, and the Passenger TSI rose 0.8 percent to reach an all-time high, exceeding the pre-September 2001 high by the largest margin so far, the Department of Transportation’s Bureau of Transportation Statistics reported today. 

            The TSI, which combines freight and passenger indexes, rose in July to 125.5 (1996=100) for the first rise after two consecutive monthly declines.  The July 2004 TSI  is 7.2 percent higher than July 2003. The June TSI is 125.0, revised from the 123.9 reported in BTS’ September release. The July TSI of 125.5 is the all-time high, topping the previous high of 125.4 for April 2004.

            TSI is a single seasonally adjusted index of the month-to-month changes in the output of services provided by the for-hire transportation industries, including railroad, air, truck, inland waterways, pipeline, and local transit. 

            The index includes historic data from 1990 to the present, allowing for examination of trends, peaks and low-points. Changes are measured against the base year of 1996. The TSI is still under development and is considered experimental. The next release is scheduled for Nov. 8.
 

The Transportation Services Index for Freight 

            The TSI for freight increased 0.3 percent to 126.9 in July from the June level of 126.6, following two consecutive monthly declines beginning in April. The April Freight TSI of 127.1 is the all-time high, revised from the 126.6 reported in BTS’ September release.  The June TSI for freight is 126.6, revised from the 125.7 reported in September.  The July 2004 level of 126.9 is 6.9 percent higher than the July 2003 level of 118.7.
 

Transportation Services Index for Passengers 

            The TSI for passengers was up 0.8 percent to 122.7 in July, surpassing the previous high of 121.8 in April and the pre-September 2001 high of 121.7 that was set in August 2001. The April Passenger TSI was revised to 121.8 from the 120.0 reported in September, resulting in the first monthly index level that topped the pre-9/11 high.  The July level of 122.7 is 7.8 percent higher than the July 2003 level of 113.9. The June TSI for passengers is 121.7, revised from the 120.0 reported in BTS’ September release.
 

More on TSI 

            During the six months ending in July, the TSI rose 3.9 percent.  The Freight TSI rose 3.9 percent and the Passenger TSI rose 4.0 percent during the six-month period.

            Note:  TSI numbers (Total, Freight, and Passenger) were revised because additional data became available for seasonality adjustments and because of revisions in the output data of the component transportation services. These changes have a larger impact on more recent numbers.  The July TSI was particularly affected by the incorporation of revised source data for Public Transit dating back to 1993 and for Air Freight dating back to December 2003.
 

Table 1: Percent changes in the Transportation Services Index by Month

Since January 2004 (Seasonally Adjusted):

	TSI		Freight		Passenger
	Index	Pct. Change	Index	Pct. Change	Index	Pct. Change
January	120.8	-0.3	122.1	-0.6	118.0	0.3
February	122.8	1.7	123.9	1.4	120.8	2.4
March	123.7	0.7	125.2	1.0	120.6	-0.2
April	125.4	1.4	127.1	1.5	121.8	1.0
May	125.1	-0.2	126.7	-0.3	121.6	-0.1
June	125.0	-0.1	126.6	-0.1	121.7	0.1
July	125.5	0.4	126.9	0.3	122.7	0.8

Table 2: Percent changes in the Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year

July TSI  (1996 = 100)

	TSI	Percent change from previous year
1996	100.8	2.6
1997	107.1	6.3
1998	112.6	5.1
1999	115.9	3.0
2000	114.7	-1.1
2001	114.6	-0.1
2002	115.7	1.0
2003	117.1	1.2
2004	125.5	7.2

Table 3: Percent Changes in the Transportation Services Index from Previous Years to 2004

July to July

Percent change to July 2004	Since July . . .	Duration
7.2	2003	One Year
8.5	2002	Two Years
9.5	2001	Three Years
9.5	2000	Four Years
8.3	1999	Five Years
11.5	1998	Six Years
17.2	1997	Seven Years
24.6	1996	Eight Years

 

Table 4: Percent changes in the Freight Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year

July Freight TSI  (1996 = 100)

	Freight TSI	Percent change from previous year
1996	101.0	1.1
1997	108.4	7.3
1998	115.7	6.7
1999	117.1	1.2
2000	113.2	-3.3
2001	112.5	-0.6
2002	117.8	4.7
2003	118.7	0.8
2004	126.9	6.9