|
|
| Home |
|
What's With This Weather? |
A pool of cool water in the Pacific Ocean determined much of the country’s weather in the last two years. La Nina changed normal weather patterns when it formed, and it’s still dominating the weather as it wanes. La Nina usually brings dry weather to the southern states and that is a big part of why Florida and the Southwest have had such a severe fire season. La Nina has spread dry weather to the West this spring and summer, and even though it is waning, the weather pattern is already set for the rest of the summer and fall. Hotter and drier than normal weather is on tap through September. Fire indices for drought, greenness, plant moisture and other indicators are at or above all-time highs, and confirm what everyone already knows: It’s hot and dry out West. The Southwestern monsoon, which usually ends the fire season in Arizona and New Mexico in early July, has been sporadic this year. It’s into August, and the Southwest is still having an active fire season. So, here’s the summary: hot temperatures, low relative humidities, little or no precipitation, plenty of wind, and the consequence is easy to predict: the potential for a nasty fire season. All that’s left is a source of ignition, and Nature stepped right into that breach by sending a series of mostly dry thunderstorms rumbling across the West. Although the number of thunderstorms is about the same or a little above what would occur in a typical year, because of the dry weather, a higher percentage of lightning strikes is igniting new fires. None of this was unexpected by the federal firefighting agencies. They expected a tough season and planned accordingly. The length of the season and its breadth (literally, fires are burning from the Rocky Mountains to the Pacific Ocean) has taxed their capabilities to the limit. The fire season started early. By March, fires of 40,000+ acres had burned in the Southwest. Burning conditions generally ran 4 to 6 weeks ahead of schedule. In other words, by July 1st, the burning conditions more closely resembled those of mid-August. The season promises to stretch well into the fall. Long-range weather forecasts all pretty much read the same for the West. Higher than normal temperature and lower than normal precipitation. To summarize: the 2000 fire season has the potential to be one of the worst ever. As of August 6th, more than 63,000 fires burned more than 4 million acres. It has already been a long, challenging season. Whether it ranks among the very worst largely will be determined over the next six weeks. |
