HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
|
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
231 PM CDT SAT OCT 30 2004
NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-311100-
ANDREWS-BIG BEND AREA-BORDEN-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-CRANE-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-DAWSON-ECTOR-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-GAINES-
GLASSCOCK-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-
HOWARD-LOVING-MARFA PLATEAU-MARTIN-MIDLAND-MITCHELL-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-REAGAN-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-SCURRY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-
TERRELL-UPTON-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-WARD-WINKLER-
231 PM CDT (131 PM MDT) SAT OCT 30 2004
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO.
.DAY ONE...TONIGHT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF
THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS/BIG BEND REGION...STOCKTON PLATEAU...LOWER TRANS
PECOS...PERMIAN BASIN...AND WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED...A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION...SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
$$
|
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1156 AM CDT SAT OCT 30 2004
OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-311300-
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.
NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION...
A WARM MOIST AIRMASS WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS TEXAS INTO OKLAHOMA
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. DUE TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY...SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CST SUNDAY OCT 31.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...80 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...5 PERCENT.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS
THE AREA. LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE CHANCE OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOW.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
SPREADING WEST AND NORTH INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL COULD REACH 2
TO 4 INCHES PRIMARILY OVER SOUTHEAST PARTS OF OKLAHOMA. ALONG
WITH HEAVY RAIN...WIDESPREAD FOG IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
A LIGHT FREEZE APPEARS TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT NOON
TODAY.
$$
SIX
|
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
254 PM CDT SAT OCT 30 2004
TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-140-
154-155-168>170-312130-
BROWN TX-CALLAHAN TX-COKE TX-COLEMAN TX-CONCHO TX-CROCKETT TX-
FISHER TX-HASKELL TX-IRION TX-JONES TX-KIMBLE TX-MASON TX-
MCCULLOCH TX-MENARD TX-NOLAN TX-RUNNELS TX-SAN SABA TX-SCHLEICHER TX-
SHACKELFORD TX-STERLING TX-SUTTON TX-TAYLOR TX-THROCKMORTON TX-
TOM GREEN TX-
254 PM CDT SAT OCT 30 2004
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.
.DAY ONE...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...INTERACTING WITH A
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE...WILL CAUSE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS. IN ADDITION...THE STRONGEST
STORM COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
$$
|
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
400 PM CDT SAT OCT 30 2004
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-311200-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
400 PM CDT SAT OCT 30 2004
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.
.DAY ONE...
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...BEST
CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD
BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIRD...HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT FLOOD ISSUES ARE
NOT ANTICIPATED.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS MAINLY
THE NORTHWEST TWO THIRDS OF NORTH TEXAS...WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING IN THE SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED FLOODING ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN COINCIDES WITH
SATURATED SOILS.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY...WITH
CHANCES LINGERING ALONG THE RED RIVER MONDAY NIGHT. A FRONTAL
PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT WILL SPELL AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION.
SUBSEQUENT COLD FRONTS WILL USHER IN INCREASINGLY COOLER AND DRIER
AIR...BUT WILL OTHERWISE BE RAINFREE.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.
$$
25
|
SHORT TERM FORECAST
|
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
321 PM CDT SAT OCT 30 2004
TXZ183-302220-
VAL VERDE-
321 PM CDT SAT OCT 30 2004
.NOW...
A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE OVER MEXICO
WILL CONTINUE EAST AT 20 MPH AND MOVE ACROSS VAL VERDE COUNTY BETWEEN
4 AND 6 PM. EXPECT HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO ONE
INCH. IN ADDITION...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
$$
|
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
311 PM CDT SAT OCT 30 2004
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-302200-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
311 PM CDT SAT OCT 30 2004
.NOW...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT LOCATIONS
NORTHWEST OF A SHERMAN...DENTON...WEATHERFORD TO COMANCHE LINE
THROUGH 5 PM. BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY THE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
BETWEEN GRAHAM...BOWIE...AND GAINESVILLE. MOST OTHER LOCATIONS
WILL ONLY SEE BRIEF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN THROUGH 5 PM. ALL
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.
THOSE ENGAGED IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF THE
WEATHER. MOVE INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE IF LIGHTNING IS SEEN OR
THUNDER IS HEARD.
THE REMAINDER OF NORTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH EARLY EVENING...
HOWEVER...A STALLED COLD FRONT NEAR A TYLER...WACO...TO SAN SABA
LINE WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE
EVENING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR AND
NORTH OF THIS FRONT OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH
OF THE RED RIVER BEFORE SUNRISE SUNDAY.
$$
|
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
345 PM CDT SAT OCT 30 2004
OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-302230-
345 PM CDT SAT OCT 30 2004
.NOW...
...REGIONAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...
AT 345 PM...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WERE
LOCATED OVER FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA NEAR ARDMORE...MARIETTA AND
THACKERVILLE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED TO THE
SOUTHWEST NEAR IOWA PARK...HOLLIDAY AND WESTOVER...TEXAS. THE
PRECIPITATION WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AROUND 30 MPH. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN OVER SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWEST
TEXAS AND THIS PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
$$
SIX
|
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
505 PM CDT SAT OCT 30 2004
TXZ049-098-099-113-114-302214-
FISHER-HASKELL-JONES-SHACKELFORD-THROCKMORTON-
505 PM CDT SAT OCT 30 2004
.NOW...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT 30
MPH. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA
MAINLY NORTH OF I20 THROUGH 5 PM. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
AVERAGE AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH ALONG WITH PEA SIZE HAIL...AND
DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
$$
26
|
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
505 PM CDT SAT OCT 30 2004
TXZ054-064>066-071>073-127-128-139-140-302214-
BROWN-CALLAHAN-COKE-COLEMAN-CONCHO-IRION-NOLAN-RUNNELS-STERLING-
TAYLOR-TOM GREEN-
505 PM CDT SAT OCT 30 2004
.NOW...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY...BIG COUNTRY AND
HEARTLAND THROUGH 5 PM. WATCH OUT FOR DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...AND PEA SIZE HAIL IN THE STRONGER STORMS ACROSS THE
CONCHO VALLEY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT A THIRD OF AN INCH
PER HOUR IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. ELSEWHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHTER.
$$
|
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
|
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
415 PM CDT SAT OCT 30 2004
TXZ021>044-311100-
BAILEY-BRISCOE-CASTRO-CHILDRESS-COCHRAN-COTTLE-CROSBY-DICKENS-FLOYD-
GARZA-HALE-HALL-HOCKLEY-KENT-KING-LAMB-LUBBOCK-LYNN-MOTLEY-PARMER-
STONEWALL-SWISHER-TERRY-YOAKUM-
400 PM CDT SAT OCT 30 2004
...WET WEATHER ON TAP TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEN COLDER MONDAY WITH
A FREEZE POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTH PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT...
A MOIST UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY BRINGING A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY TO EASTERN
COUNTIES OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE THE DISTURBANCE
EXITS THE AREA.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THEN MOVE ACROSS WEST TEXAS ON
MONDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE MONDAY MORNING...WITH
COLD AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH
FALLING TEMPERATURES.
THE STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA MONDAY
AND MONDAY EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. CLEARING IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY
ALONG WITH DIMINISHING NORTH AND NORTHWEST WINDS. WITH MUCH DRIER
AIR IN PLACE BEHIND THE FRONT AND CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S BY TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE AND NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS. TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR FREEZING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA ON
THE CAPROCK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY MORNING.
STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB
SITE OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET FOR UPDATED INFORMATION REGARDING
THIS WEATHER EVENT.
$$
|
