National Evaluation of Welfare-to-Work Strategies

How Effective Are Different Welfare-to-Work Approaches?
Five-Year Adult and Child Impacts for Eleven Programs

U.S. Department of Health and Human Services
Administration for Children and Families
Office of the Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation

U.S. Department of Education
Office of the Deputy Secretary
Planning and Evaluation Service
Office of Vocational and Adult Education

December 2001

Prepared by:
Gayle Hamilton, Stephen Freedman, Lisa Gennetian, Charles Michalopoulos, Johanna Walter, Diana Adams-Ciardullo, and Anna Gassman-Pines
Manpower Demonstration Research Corporation

Sharon McGroder, Martha Zaslow, Jennifer Brooks, and Surjeet Ahluwalia
Child Trends

with
Electra Small and Bryan Ricchetti
Manpower Demonstration Research Corporation

This report is available on the Internet at:
http://aspe.hhs.gov/hsp/NEWWS/5yr-11prog01

Obtaining a Printed Copy

Contents

Executive Summary

Acknowledgements & Dedication
Funding

Chapters:

  1. Introduction
    1. A Framework for Understanding Program Results
    2. Research Questions and Design
    3. Program Environments
    4. Program Features
      1. Self-Sufficiency Approaches
      2. Degree of Participation Mandate Enforcement
      3. Other Program Features
    5. Program Changes in the Last Two Years of the Five-Year Follow-Up Period
    6. Control Group Treatment Over Time
    7. A Brief Review of Two-Year Impact Results
    8. Contents of This Report
  2. Research Design, Sample Characteristics, Data Sources, and Analysis Issues
    1. Research Design
      1. Random Assignment Designs
      2. Random Assignment Periods and Procedures
    2. Analysis Samples and Sample Characteristics
      1. Analysis Samples
      2. Sample Characteristics
    3. Data Sources
    4. Analysis Issues
      1. Calculating Impacts
      2. Control Group Treatment Over Time
  3. Impacts on Employment-Related Services and Degree Receipt
    1. Key Findings
    2. Analysis Issues
    3. Review of Two-Year Findings
    4. Five-Year Control Group Participation Patterns
    5. Five-Year Impacts on Participation
      1. Impacts for the Full Sample
      2. Impacts by Education Subgroup
    6. Impacts on Participation in Year 5
    7. Trends Over Time in Participation Impacts
    8. Five-Year Impacts on Degree Receipt
      1. High School Nongraduates
      2. High School Graduates
    9. Conclusions
  4. Impacts on Employment and Earnings
    1. Key Findings
    2. Expected Effects
    3. Impacts on Employment and Earnings
      1. Employment and Earnings Over Five Years
      2. Employment by Year
      3. Earnings by Year
      4. Employment Stability and Earnings Growth
      5. High School Graduates and Nongraduates
    4. Comparing Results for the LFA and HCD Programs
    5. Effects on Employment and Earnings Impacts by the End of the Control Group Embargo
  5. Impacts on Public Assistance
    1. Key Findings
    2. Expected Effects
    3. Welfare Receipt and Payments
      1. Welfare Receipt and Payments Over Five Years
      2. Welfare Receipt by Year
      3. Comparing High School Graduates and Nongraduates
    4. Food Stamp Payments and Receipt
    5. Comparing the Effects of the LFA and HCD Programs
  6. Impacts on Income and Self-Sufficiency
    1. Key Findings
    2. Analysis Issues
      1. Defining Self-Sufficiency
      2. Direct and Indirect Effects on Self-Sufficiency and Income
      3. Measurement Issues
    3. Impacts on Income
      1. Combined Income Over Five Years
      2. Combined Income by Year
      3. Impacts on Combined Income for Educational Attainment Subgroups
    4. Impacts on Employment and Welfare Status Over Five Years
    5. Comparing the Effects of the LFA and HCD Programs on Income
    6. Impacts on Respondent and Household Income at the End of Year 5
      1. Additional Sources of Income for Respondents
      2. Household Income
  7. What Works Best for Whom: Economic Effects by Subgroup
    1. Key Findings
    2. Analysis Issues
    3. Impacts by Subgroup
      1. Welfare History
      2. Recent Work Experience
      3. Composite Level of Disadvantage
      4. Race and Ethnicity
    4. Comparing the LFA and HCD Programs
    5. What Has Been Learned?
  8. Impacts on Health Care Coverage
    1. Key Findings
    2. Expected Effects
    3. Health Care Coverage at the End of Year 5
      1. Employment and Employer-Provided Coverage
      2. Public Versus Private Coverage for Respondents
      3. Coverage for Children
    4. Transitional Medicaid Use During the Five-Year Follow-Up
    5. Loss of Coverage by the End of Year 5
    6. Conclusions
  9. Impacts on Household and Personal Circumstances
    1. Key Findings
    2. Measurement Issues
      1. Marital Status and Household Composition
      2. Moving and Housing Status
      3. Employment-Related and Domestic Abuse
    3. Effects of Welfare-to-Work Approaches on Marital Status
    4. Effects of Welfare-to-Work Approaches on Fertility and Household Composition
      1. Fertility
      2. Household Composition
    5. Effects of Welfare-to-Work Approaches on Housing Status
    6. Effects of Welfare-to-Work Approaches on Employment-Related and Domestic Abuse
    7. Links Between Effects on Household and Personal Circumstances and Particular Program Practices or Program Effects on Employment
  10. Impacts on Child Care and Child Activities
    1. Key Findings
    2. Analysis Issues
      1. Mothers' Employment and Child Care Use
      2. Children's Experiences in Child Care and Activities
    3. Child Care Use as a Support for Employment
      1. Control Group Levels of Child Care
      2. Impacts on Child Care Use as a Support for Employment
    4. Child Care as a Context for Development
      1. Control Group Levels of Child Care
      2. Impacts on Child Care Use
    5. Conclusions
  11. Impacts on the Well-Being of All Children
    1. Key Findings
    2. Measurement Issues
    3. The Effect of Welfare-to-Work Approaches on Child Outcomes
      1. Any Child in the Family
      2. Toddlers
      3. Preschool-Age Children
      4. Young School-Age Children
      5. Adolescents
    4. Links Between Effects on Child Outcomes and Program Practices or Particular Effects
      1. Comparing LFA and HCD Approaches
      2. Toddlers
      3. Adolescents
    5. Conclusions
  12. Impacts on Young Children
    1. Key Findings
    2. Analysis Issues
      1. Child Outcomes Examined
      2. Multiple Reporters
    3. Impacts on Children
      1. Social Skills and Behavior
      2. Academic Functioning
      3. Health and Safety
      4. Other Outcome
    4. "Mapping" Child and Adult Impacts Found in the Child Outcomes Study Sample
      1. Educational Attainment
      2. Employment and Earnings
      3. Cumulative Income and Poverty Status
      4. Child Care
    5. Discussion and Conclusions
  13. Costs and Benefits
    1. Key Findings
    2. Issues in the Cost Analysis
    3. Major Components of the Cost Analysis
    4. Expenditures for In-Program Employment-Related Services
      1. Welfare Department Expenditures
      2. Non-Welfare Agency Expenditures
    5. Expenditures for Out-of-Program Employment-Related Services
      1. Welfare Department Expenditures
      2. Non-Welfare Agency Expenditures
    6. Gross Costs
      1. Gross Costs for Program Group Members
      2. Gross Costs for Control Group Members
    7. Net Costs
      1. Results by Educational Attainment Subgroups
      2. LFA-HCD Program Differences
    8. Analytical Approach for the Benefit-Cost Analysis
      1. Accounting Methods
      2. Analytical Perspectives
      3. Limitations of the Analysis
    9. Effects for Sample Members
      1. Earnings and Fringe Benefits
      2. Personal Taxes
      3. Transfer Payments and Benefits
    10. Net Gains and Losses by Accounting Perspective
      1. Welfare Sample Members
      2. Government Budgets
    11. Sensitivity of the Results
    12. Conclusions

Appendices

References

List of Table and Figures

Dedication

Obtaining Printed Copies of Reports

To obtain a printed copy of this report, send or fax the title and your name and mailing address to:

Human Services Policy, Room 404E
Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation
200 Independence Ave, SW
Washington, DC 20201
Fax:  (202) 690-6562

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National Evaluation of Welfare-to-Work Strategies (NEWWS)
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U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS)

Updated:  02/21/02