National Evaluation of Welfare-to-Work Strategies

How Effective Are Different Welfare-to-Work Approaches?
Five-Year Adult and Child Impacts for Eleven Programs:

Appendix C:
Supplementary Tables to Chapter 4

[ Main Page of Report | Contents of Report ]

Appendix Table C.1
Impacts on Employment in Years 1 to 5
Site and Program Program Group (%) Control Group (%) Difference (Impact) Percentage Change (%)
Atlanta Labor Force Attachment
Year 1 49.1 44.4 4.7 *** 10.6
Year 2 55.3 49.8 5.5 *** 11.0
Year 3 58.4 54.1 4.4 ** 8.1
Year 4 61.5 58.5 3.0 * 5.2
Year 5 65.1 63.0 2.1 3.3
Sample size 1441.0 1497.0    
Atlanta Human Capital Development
Year 1 45.5 44.4 1.1 2.5
Year 2 54.3 49.8 4.5 *** 9.0
Year 3 58.2 54.1 4.2 ** 7.7
Year 4 60.3 58.5 1.8 3.1
Year 5 63.6 63.0 0.6 1.0
Sample size 1495.0 1497.0    
Grand Rapids Labor Force Attachment
Year 1 63.6 52.9 10.7 *** 20.2
Year 2 67.2 60.6 6.6 *** 10.8
Year 3 69.8 65.0 4.7 *** 7.3
Year 4 71.3 70.0 1.3 1.9
Year 5 70.0 73.0 -2.9 * -4.0
Sample size 1557.0 1455.0    
Grand Rapids Human Capital Development
Year 1 58.1 52.9 5.3 *** 9.9
Year 2 65.5 60.6 4.9 *** 8.0
Year 3 67.2 65.0 2.2 3.4
Year 4 70.0 70.0 0.0 0.0
Year 5 70.3 73.0 -2.7 * -3.7
Sample size 1542.0 1455.0    
Riverside Labor Force Attachment
Year 1 50.6 34.1 16.5 *** 48.5
Year 2 45.4 37.0 8.4 *** 22.6
Year 3 44.5 39.8 4.7 *** 11.9
Year 4 45.8 41.9 3.9 *** 9.2
Year 5 48.7 44.5 4.2 *** 9.5
Sample size 3384.0 3342.0    
Riverside Labor Force Attachment Lacked high school diploma or basic skills
Year 1 45.8 29.1 16.7 *** 57.4
Year 2 40.9 31.9 9.0 *** 28.3
Year 3 40.8 34.8 6.1 *** 17.5
Year 4 41.5 37.1 4.4 *** 11.9
Year 5 45.8 39.9 5.9 *** 14.8
Sample size 1586.0 1539.0    
Riverside Human Capital Development
Year 1 35.7 29.1 6.6 *** 22.9
Year 2 37.7 31.9 5.8 *** 18.2
Year 3 39.3 34.8 4.6 *** 13.2
Year 4 40.9 37.1 3.9 ** 10.4
Year 5 44.9 39.9 5.0 *** 12.5
Sample size 1596.0 1539.0    
Columbus Integrated
Year 1 60.0 60.1 -0.1 -0.2
Year 2 65.2 62.9 2.3 * 3.7
Year 3 68.9 65.3 3.6 *** 5.5
Year 4 69.9 67.7 2.2 * 3.2
Year 5 69.1 68.8 0.3 0.5
Sample size 2513.0 2159.0    
Columbus Traditional
Year 1 59.9 60.1 -0.1 -0.2
Year 2 64.5 62.9 1.6 2.6
Year 3 67.9 65.3 2.6 ** 3.9
Year 4 68.9 67.7 1.2 1.8
Year 5 69.3 68.8 0.5 0.7
Sample size 2570.0 2159.0    
Detroit
Year 1 41.2 40.6 0.6 1.6
Year 2 54.2 51.5 2.6 * 5.1
Year 3 62.3 59.0 3.3 ** 5.5
Year 4 66.4 67.5 -1.1 -1.7
Year 5 68.8 68.8 -0.0 -0.1
Sample size 2226.0 2233.0    
Oklahoma City
Year 1 50.9 51.6 -0.7 -1.4
Year 2 51.0 51.6 -0.6 -1.2
Year 3 51.4 52.1 -0.7 -1.4
Year 4 52.9 52.7 0.3 0.5
Year 5 53.2 54.2 -1.0 -1.8
Sample size 4309.0 4368.0    
Portland
Year 1 58.5 49.8 8.6 *** 17.3
Year 2 62.3 51.4 10.9 *** 21.2
Year 3 64.1 52.0 12.1 *** 23.2
Year 4 64.2 55.8 8.5 *** 15.2
Year 5 62.4 58.6 3.8 * 6.4
Sample size 3529.0 499.0    
SOURCE:  MDRC calculations from state and county administrative records.
NOTES: See Appendix A.1.

Appendix Table C.2
Impacts on Earnings in Years 1 to 5
Site and Program Program Group (%) Control Group (%) Difference (Impact) Percentage Change (%)
Atlanta Labor Force Attachment
Year 1 2,043 1,647 396*** 24.0
Year 2 3,228 2,578 650*** 25.2
Year 3 3,930 3,313 618*** 18.7
Year 4 4,815 4,255 560** 13.2
Year 5 5,821 5,586 235 4.2
Sample size 1,441 1,497    
Atlanta Human Capital Development
Year 1 1,846 1,647 199* 12.1
Year 2 3,059 2,578 480*** 18.6
Year 3 3,912 3,313 599*** 18.1
Year 4 4,910 4,255 655*** 15.4
Year 5 5,671 5,586 84 1.5
Sample size 1,495 1,497    
Grand Rapids Labor Force Attachment
Year 1 2,289 1,759 530*** 30.2
Year 2 3,385 2,874 511*** 17.8
Year 3 4,658 4,211 447** 10.6
Year 4 5,615 5,480 135 2.5
Year 5 6,376 6,447 -71 -1.1
Sample size 1,557 1,455    
Grand Rapids Human Capital Development
Year 1 1,869 1,759 110 6.3
Year 2 3,354 2,874 479*** 16.7
Year 3 4,514 4,211 303 7.2
Year 4 5,535 5,480 56 1.0
Year 5 6,345 6,447 -102 -1.6
Sample size 1,542 1,455    
Riverside Labor Force Attachment
Year 1 2,460 1,741 719*** 41.3
Year 2 3,039 2,482 557*** 22.4
Year 3 3,389 2,957 432*** 14.6
Year 4 3,867 3,554 313* 8.8
Year 5 4,683 4,155 528*** 12.7
Sample size 3,384 3,342    
Riverside Labor Force Attachment
Lacked high school diploma or basic skills
Year 1 1,866 1,250 616*** 49.3
Year 2 2,270 1,886 384** 20.4
Year 3 2,541 2,150 391** 18.2
Year 4 2,882 2,601 281 10.8
Year 5 3,634 3,025 608*** 20.1
Sample size 1,586 1,539    
Riverside Human Capital Development
Year 1 1,446 1,250 196* 15.7
Year 2 2,025 1,886 139 7.4
Year 3 2,561 2,150 411** 19.1
Year 4 2,857 2,601 255 9.8
Year 5 3,384 3,025 359 11.9
Sample size 1,596 1,539    
Columbus Integrated
Year 1 2,994 2,914 80 2.8
Year 2 4,578 3,982 595*** 15.0
Year 3 5,644 5,134 510*** 9.9
Year 4 6,722 6,260 463** 7.4
Year 5 7,682 7,276 406 5.6
Sample size 2,513 2,159    
Columbus Traditional
Year 1 3,099 2,914 185 6.4
Year 2 4,472 3,982 490*** 12.3
Year 3 5,459 5,134 325* 6.3
Year 4 6,557 6,260 298 4.8
Year 5 7,389 7,276 113 1.6
Sample size 2,570 2,159    
Detroit
Year 1 1,398 1,341 57 4.2
Year 2 2,976 2,663 313** 11.8
Year 3 4,593 4,112 481** 11.7
Year 4 5,920 5,570 351 6.3
Year 5 7,081 6,823 258 3.8
Sample size 2,226 2,233    
Oklahoma City
Year 1 1,404 1,387 16 1.2
Year 2 2,121 2,127 -5 -0.3
Year 3 2,632 2,672 -40 -1.5
Year 4 3,114 3,068 45 1.5
Year 5 3,597 3,498 100 2.8
Sample size 4,309 4,368    
Portland
Year 1 2,828 2,484 343* 13.8
Year 2 4,421 3,150 1,271*** 40.4
Year 3 5,491 4,050 1,441*** 35.6
Year 4 6,319 5,112 1,207*** 23.6
Year 5 6,982 6,095 887** 14.6
Sample size 3,529 499    
SOURCE:  MDRC calculations from state and county administrative records.
NOTES: See Appendix A.1.

Appendix Table C.3
Impacts on Employment and Earnings in Years 1 to 3
Site and Program Sample Size Program Group Control Group Difference (Impact) Percentage Change (%)
Ever employed (%)
Atlanta Labor Force Attachment 2,938 72.0 68.2 3.8** 5.6
Atlanta Human Capital Development 2,992 71.3 68.2 3.0* 4.4
Grand Rapids Labor Force Attachment 3,012 84.0 77.6 6.4*** 8.2
Grand Rapids Human Capital Development 2,997 82.0 77.6 4.4*** 5.6
Riverside Labor Force Attachment 6,726 66.1 53.8 12.3*** 22.8
Lacked high school diploma or basic skills 3,125 61.5 47.1 14.3*** 30.4
Riverside Human Capital Development 3,135 55.9 47.1 8.8*** 18.7
Columbus Integrated 4,672 81.1 78.5 2.6** 3.3
Columbus Traditional 4,729 80.7 78.5 2.2** 2.8
Detroit 4,459 74.0 70.4 3.6 5.1
Oklahoma City 8,677 71.5 71.8 -0.4 -0.5
Portland 4,028 80.3 71.5 8.8*** 12.2
Average number of quarters employed (%)
Atlanta Labor Force Attachment 2,938 4.6 4.0 0.6*** 14.0
Atlanta Human Capital Development 2,992 4.4 4.0 0.4*** 9.7
Grand Rapids Labor Force Attachment 3,012 5.4 4.7 0.7*** 15.7
Grand Rapids Human Capital Development 2,997 5.1 4.7 0.4*** 8.5
Riverside Labor Force Attachment 6,726 3.9 3.0 0.9*** 28.9
Lacked high school diploma or basic skills 3,125 3.4 2.5 0.9*** 36.2
Riverside Human Capital Development 3,135 2.9 2.5 0.5*** 18.2
Columbus Integrated 4,672 5.8 5.5 0.3*** 5.3
Columbus Traditional 4,729 5.7 5.5 0.2** 4.1
Detroit 4,459 4.1 3.9 0.2** 6.1
Oklahoma City 8,677 3.7 3.8 -0.1 -2.9
Portland 4,028 5.4 4.2 1.1*** 26.3
Average total earnings ($)
Atlanta Labor Force Attachment 2,938 9,202 7,538 1,664*** 22.1
Atlanta Human Capital Development 2,992 8,816 7,538 1,278*** 17.0
Grand Rapids Labor Force Attachment 3,012 10,332 8,844 1,488*** 16.8
Grand Rapids Human Capital Development 2,997 9,736 8,844 892*** 10.1
Riverside Labor Force Attachment 6,726 8,888 7,180 1,708*** 23.8
Lacked high school diploma or basic skills 3,125 6,678 5,286 1,392 26.3
Riverside Human Capital Development 3,135 6,032 5,286 746** 14.1
Columbus Integrated 4,672 13,216 12,030 1,186** 9.9
Columbus Traditional 4,729 13,030 12,030 1,000*** 8.3
Detroit 4,459 8,967 8,115 851** 10.5
Oklahoma City 8,677 6,157 6,186 -29 -0.5
Portland 4,028 12,740 9,684 3,055*** 31.5
SOURCE:  MDRC calculations from state and county administrative records.
NOTES: See Appendix A.1.

Appendix Table C.4
Impacts on Employment and Earnings in the Last Quarter of Year 5
Site and Program Sample Size Program Group Control Group Difference (Impact) Percentage Change (%)
Ever employed (%)      
Atlanta Labor Force Attachment 2,938 50.9 51.5 -0.5 -1.1
Atlanta Human Capital Development 2,992 51.3 51.5 -0.2 -0.4
Grand Rapids Labor Force Attachment 3,012 54.9 59.0 -4.1** -6.9
Grand Rapids Human Capital Development 2,997 56.7 59.0 -2.3 -4.0
Riverside Labor Force Attachment 6,726 38.4 35.5 2.9** 8.1
Lacked high school diploma or basic skills 3,125 35.3 31.1 4.2** 13.5
Riverside Human Capital Development 3,135 33.8 31.1 2.7* 8.8
Columbus Integrated 4,672 54.4 55.0 -0.6 -1.2
Columbus Traditional 4,729 54.2 55.0 -0.8 -1.5
Detroit 4,459 55.0 55.2 -0.2 -0.4
Oklahoma City 8,677 37.3 38.2 -0.9 -2.4
Portland 4,028 50.1 44.7 5.4** 12.2
Total earnings ($)  
Atlanta Labor Force Attachment 2,938 1,544 1,496 48 3.2
Atlanta Human Capital Development 2,992 1,469 1,496 -26 -1.7
Grand Rapids Labor Force Attachment 3,012 1,659 1,746 -87 -5.0
Grand Rapids Human Capital Development 2,997 1,675 1,746 -71 -4.1
Riverside Labor Force Attachment 6,726 1,236 1,113 123** 11.0
Lacked high school diploma or basic skills 3,125 986 829 156** 18.9
Riverside Human Capital Development 3,135 885 829 56 6.8
Columbus Integrated 4,672 2,008 1,914 94 4.9
Columbus Traditional 4,729 1,913 1,914 -1 -0.0
Detroit 4,459 1,847 1,849 -2 -0.1
Oklahoma City 8,677 934 939 -5 -0.5
Portland 4,028 1,793 1,555 238** 15.3
SOURCE:  MDRC calculations from state and county administrative records.
NOTES: See Appendix A.1.

Appendix Table C.5
Impacts on Employment
Site and Program Sample Size Program Group (%) Control Group (%) Difference (Impact) Percentage Change (%)
Ever employed in years 1 to 5
Atlanta Labor Force Attachment 1,071 83.3 82.9 0.4 0.4
Atlanta Human Capital Development 1,146 81.2 82.9 -1.7 -2.0
Grand Rapids Labor Force Attachment 1,097 94.7 91.9 2.98* 3.1
Grand Rapids Human Capital Development 1,109 93.6 91.9 1.7 1.9
Riverside Labor Force Attachment 1,219 85.7 80.8 4.9** 6.0
Lacked high school diploma or basic skills 657 81.8 74.2 7.6** 10.2
Riverside Human Capital Development 778 82.8 74.2 8.6*** 11.6
Portland 504 93.5 93.3 0.2 0.2
Employed at interview
Atlanta Labor Force Attachment 1,071 57.2 54.3 2.9 5.4
Atlanta Human Capital Development 1,146 52.9 54.3 -1.4 -2.5
Grand Rapids Labor Force Attachment 1,097 65.1 67.7 -2.6 -3.8
Grand Rapids Human Capital Development 1,109 66.2 67.7 -1.5 -2.2
Riverside Labor Force Attachment 1,219 55.0 48.9 6.1** 12.4
Lacked high school diploma or basic skills 657 48.9 43.0 5.9 13.6
Riverside Human Capital Development 778 51.1 43.0 8.0** 18.7
Portland 504 61.7 58.3 3.4 5.9
Employed full time at interview
Atlanta Labor Force Attachment 1,071 47.2 45.5 1.7 3.8
Atlanta Human Capital Development 1,146 44.1 45.5 -1.4 -3.2
Grand Rapids Labor Force Attachment 1,097 53.5 54.3 -0.8 -1.5
Grand Rapids Human Capital Development 1,109 52.9 54.3 -1.3 -2.5
Riverside Labor Force Attachment 1,219 44.1 35.9 8.2*** 22.7
Lacked high school diploma or basic skills 657 40.2 31.8 8.4** 26.4
Riverside Human Capital Development 778 36.8 31.8 4.9 15.4
Portland 504 50.3 46.9 3.4 7.2
Employed with employer-provided medical insurance at interview
Atlanta Labor Force Attachment 1,071 22.2 19.0 3.2 16.6
Atlanta Human Capital Development 1,146 21.2 19.0 2.2 11.5
Grand Rapids Labor Force Attachment 1,097 30.5 30.0 0.5 1.7
Grand Rapids Human Capital Development 1,109 30.4 30.0 0.4 1.5
Riverside Labor Force Attachment 1,219 17.5 15.0 2.5 16.6
Lacked high school diploma or basic skills 657 12.0 10.9 1.1 9.8
Riverside Human Capital Development 778 14.8 10.9 3.9 35.5
Portland 504 31.6 27.3 4.4 16.0
SOURCE:  MDRC calculations from state and county administrative records.
NOTES: See Appendix A.1.

Appendix Table C.6
Impacts on Longer-Term Employment Stability and Earnings Growth
Site and Program Sample Size Program Group (%) Control Group (%) Difference (Impact) Percentage Change (%)
Employed in 75 percent or more of quarters in years 3 to 5
Atlanta Labor Force Attachment 2,938 37.0 32.5 4.5*** 14.0
Atlanta Human Capital Development 2,992 35.6 32.5 3.1* 9.5
Grand Rapids Labor Force Attachment 3,012 40.8 38.0 2.9* 7.6
Grand Rapids Human Capital Development 2,997 39.8 38.0 1.8 4.8
Riverside Labor Force Attachment 6,726 23.7 20.6 3.2*** 15.5
Lacked high school diploma or basic skills 3,125 20.0 16.2 3.8*** 23.4
Riverside Human Capital Development 3,135 20.1 16.2 3.9*** 24.0
Columbus Integrated 4,672 43.7 42.4 1.3 3.1
Columbus Traditional 4,729 43.4 42.4 1.0 2.2
Detroit 4,459 35.9 34.3 1.7 4.9
Oklahoma City 8,677 22.1 22.8 -0.6 -2.7
Portland 4,028 38.6 31.2 7.5*** 23.9
Increased average earnings from first to last measured quarters in years 1 to 5
Atlanta Labor Force Attachment 2,938 40.4 38.6 1.8 4.7
Atlanta Human Capital Development 2,992 40.8 38.6 2.3 5.9
Grand Rapids Labor Force Attachment 3,012 46.8 46.0 0.8 1.6
Grand Rapids Human Capital Development 2,997 46.3 46.0 0.3 0.7
Riverside Labor Force Attachment 6,726 31.9 27.4 4.4*** 16.2
Lacked high school diploma or basic skills 3,125 28.2 21.8 6.4*** 29.4
Riverside Human Capital Development 3,135 26.9 21.8 5.1*** 23.2
Columbus Integrated 4,672 48.9 46.6 2.3 4.9
Columbus Traditional 4,729 48.2 46.6 1.6 3.5
Detroit 4,459 42.0 42.3 -0.3 -0.8
Oklahoma City 8,677 30.4 30.0 0.4 1.2
Portland 4,028 45.2 38.3 6.9*** 17.9
SOURCE:  MDRC calculations from state and county administrative records.
NOTES: See Appendix A.1.

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