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Displaying Violent Crime Trends Using Estimates from the National Crime Victimization Survey

Intended for an audience that is not trained in statistics, this report graphically presents violent crime trends from the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS). Because the NCVS is based on the victimization experience of a sample of U.S. households, the rates and numbers from it are estimates which, by definition, are not exact. This report discusses the precision of these estimates to aid readers in interpreting the data over time. Included are graphics depicting violent crime rates from 1973-96 and 1995-96 changes for the crimes of rape, robbery, aggravated and simple assault, and murder. In the context of the NCVS, the report discusses sampling, statistical significance, and statistical inference. Also included are two appendices concerning additional information on basic statistical principles and the data used in the graphics. 6/98. NCJ 167881

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