Introduction and Mission 

Fire weather is the operational program that provides forecast, warning, and consultation services for the prevention, suppression, and management of wildfires.  The objectives of our Fire Weather Program are as follows: 

1.  Furnish fire weather forecasts to: 
  
    a.  Michigan Interagency Wildfire Protection Association 
    b.  United States Forest Service 
    c.  National Park Service 
    d.  United States Fish and Wildlife Service 
    e.  Other Federal land management agencies 

2.  Provide assistance and consultation in any forest planning and management programs where weather or climate is a factor. 

3.  Be aware of the needs and problems of all forestry interests. 

4.  Amend the Fire Weather Plan as needed to assure its continued usefulness as a guide to both the Fire Weather Meteorologist and the users of this service.  

Area of Responsibility 

NWS Marquette has Fire Weather responsibility for all of Upper Michigan.  However, the main focus will be in serving the following fire control/land management agencies: 

    a.  Hiawatha National Forest 
    b.  Ottawa National Forest 
    c.  Pictured Rocks National Lakeshore 
    d.  Isle Royale National Park 
    e.  US Fish and Wildlife Service, Seney Wildlife Refuge 
    f.  Michigan Interagency Wildland Fire Protection Association  

Fire Season 

In most cases, the fire season across Upper Michigan will extend from April 1 to November 15 each year.  Routine forecasts are issued by NWS Marquette on a regular basis during the fire season.  In cases of unusually mild, dry and snow free weather outside fire season, NWS Marquette through coordination with user agencies may elect to start the routine forecasts before April 1 or extend the season beyond November 15. 

Forecast Products 

Routine forecasts include the Fire Weather Forecast issued each morning at 7:00 am and Point Forecasts issued each afternoon at 4:00 pm.

Fire Weather Forecast: 

The morning fire weather forecast contains:

1.  A synopsis to include wildfire potential trend.
2.  Haines Index using the most recent sounding from Green Bay and a forecast Haines Index for Marquette valid at 18z.
3.  Forecast winds for Marquette (MQT) and Sault Ste. Marie (SSM) valid from 18z to 05z converted in to EST or EDT for 3000 and 6000 feet.
4.  The fire weather forecast for TODAY, TONIGHT, and TOMORROW, as well as an extended outlook through 7 days.

Point Forecast:

When point observations are available, point forecasts are prepared for a selected number of points based on agreement with user agencies.

Non-routine forecasts include Spot Forecasts, the Wildfire Potential Statement, and Fire Weather Watches and Red Flag Warnings. 

Spot Forecasts:  

The spot forecast is a non-routine forecast.  At the request of the USFS or other Federal user agency, a special forecast is prepared, or may be dictated to the requester via telephone. These forecasts are prepared for a very limited geographical area. 

In a more limited capacity, NWS Marquette also provides spot forecasts upon request to nonfederal agencies in wildfire situations, especially when life and property is endangered.  The spot forecast is a high priority item, especially during periods of on going wildfires. 

Wildfire Potential Statement: 

A Wildfire Potential Statement is also an non-routine product.  This statement is prepared at least once a day during periods of high fire danger.  The issuance time when this product is in need will be around 1000 am.  It is a brief statement dealing with the fire danger and meteorological conditions contributing to it.  

Fire Weather Watches and Red Flag Warnings: 

A fire weather watch or red flag warning occurs whenever certain critical conditions exist that when combined with critical weather parameters, create a condition that contribute to extensive wildfires, which may endanger life and property. 

A Fire Weather Watch is issued whenever a geographical area has been under a dry spell for a week or two, or shorter period, especially between snowmelt and green-up, and the National Fire Danger Rating System is high or extreme, a Fire Weather Watch should be considered if the following weather criteria is met within the next 24 to 48 hours: 
  
1.  Sustained winds averaging >or= 15 mph. 
2.  Relative Humidity < or = 25 percent.  
3.  Temperature at or above 75 degrees. 
  
A Red Flag Warning is issued when a high degree of confidence that the weather will meet or exceed fire weather watch criteria and will occur within 24 hours.  

FCST,SSCCNN,YYMMDD,VT,W,TT,RH,L1,L2,DD,VV,M,TM,TN,HM,HN,P1,P2,WF 
   where SSCCNN - 6 digit station number 
         YYMMDD - Valid time of forecast YEAR/MONTH/DAY 
             VT - Valid time, always 1300 EST/EDT 
              W - State of weather at 1300 EST/EDT 

     0 = less than 1/10 clouds      4 = fog      8 = showers 
     1 = 1/10 to 5/10 opaque clouds 5 = drizzle  9 = thunderstorms 
     2 = 6/10 to 9/10 opaque clouds 6 = rain 
     3 = cloudy                     7 = snow/sleet  
          TT = temp for 1300 EST/EDT tomorrow 
          RH = relative humidity for 1300 EST/EDT tomorrow 
          L1 = lightning activity level (13 EST/EDT today until 
               midnight.  L1 is always set to 1. 
          L2 = lightning activity level (midnight tonight until 
               midnight tomorrow).  L2 is always set to 1. 
          DD = wind direction at 13 EST/EDT tomorrow (8 point 
               compass N-NE-E-SE-S-SW-W-NW) 
          VV = 20 ft wind speed in mph at 1300 EST/EDT tomorrow 
           M = 10 hr fuel moisture.  This is done by the user. 
          TM = max temp for period 18z today until 18z tomorrow  
          TN = min temperature for tonight  
          HM = max humidity in percent for tonight 
          HN = min humidity in percent for tomorrow 
          P1 = hours of precipition from 1300 EST/EDT today til  
               4 am EST/EDT tomorrow 
          P2 = hours of precipitation from 4 am EST/EDT tomorrow  
               until 13 EST/EDT tomorrow. 
          WF = Wet flag. A Y or N. A N is normally used.  WF is used to indicate if fuels will be wet at 13 EST/EDT.  If Y is used, then all indices will be forced to zero.