Concept 

The NOWCAST (NOW) or Short Term Forecast (STF) is intended to be the primary NWS tool to communicate the short term weather (0-6 hrs) and appropriate hydrological conditions to the public and other users. This product is designed to provide a continuous flow of detailed and concise FORECAST information to the public and other users and is used to enhance the Zone Forecasts. The NOW is broadcast several times an hour on the Weather Channel (TWC) and on NOAA Weather Radio.

NWS Marquette issues an updated NOW for all zones in the County Warning Area (CWA) at least every 6 hours. During fair weather regimes, a new NOW is issued approximately at the same time as the new Zone Forecasts. However, since the NOW is an event-driven product, more frequent updates will occur during rapidly changing/significant weather events.

Content 

The NOW concisely communicates the forecast weather information for the next 6 hours. Headlines are used sparingly and only during significant weather events. The NOW text will contain any information about the 0-6 hour forecast that is important. Emphasis is on what is going to happen and then where and when. Past events will only be mentioned in a NOW to clarify the forecast.

The NOW addresses the most important weather elements. For instance, if rain is expected and only light and variable winds, the cloudy skies and winds in the NOW will not be emphasized or sometimes not even mention in the NOW. The most important weather forecast element will be the first thing mentioned with a strong lead-in sentence and then any other pertinent elements in order of decreasing importance. If there is a headline, the lead-in sentence of the text reinforces the headline.

Area Forecast Discussion (AFDMQT)

Purpose

The Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) is intended to provide a well-reasoned discussion of the meteorological thinking behind the anticipated weather conditions for the U.P., Lake Superior, and adjoining areas.

The AFD is an enhance discussion with the main purpose of coordination between NWS MQT and adjacent NWS offices (Duluth, Green Bay, Gaylord, etc). The AFD is also a public product and is the primary means available to clearly convey the reasoning behind our forecasts to external users, including private meteorologists. The goal of the MQT forecaster is to write a concise, informative statement of forecast reasoning in order to inspire confidence in our forecasts among these primary users.

Content and Philosophy

The format of the Area Forecast Discussion is essentially that of free-form text. The text is written in plain language and/or with the use of proper contractions. The text is written as concise as possible, yet it covers the most significant characteristics of the forecast. There is no specific discussion length that is "right" for every weather situation.

The AFD is a narrative description of the scientific basis for forecast decisions. An AFD will include:

• A brief review of the synoptic situation and general reasoning to support the forecast package.
• Discussion of the "problem of the day" noting what the most important challenges of the upcoming forecast are.
• Reasons for varying significantly from guidance (model guidance or national center guidance). Also an explanation of why a particular output was accepted or disregarded is included.
• Reasons for any significant change from the previous forecast package.
• Expected timing of events.
• Discussion of the level of uncertainty.

As a general rule, AFD's issued by 4:30 am and 4:00 pm should center on important aspects of the first two days of the forecast package. For the AFD's issued by 11:00 am and 10:30 pm, discussion beyond the first period should be reserved for significant weather events and when significant changes to the later periods is deemed necessary.