U.S. Department of Justice Office of Justice Programs Bureau of Justice Statistics National Crime Victimization Survey Criminal Victimization 2000 Changes 1999-2000 with Trends 1993-2000 June 2001, NCJ 187007 -------------------------------------------------------- This file is text only without graphics and many of the tables. A Zip archive of the tables in this report in spreadsheet format (.wk1) and the full report including tables and graphics in .pdf format are available from: http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/abstract/cv00.htm This report is one in a series. More recent editions may be available. To view a list of all in the series go to http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/pubalp2.htm#cv --------------------------------------------------------- By Callie Marie Rennison, Ph.D. BJS Statistician --------------------------------------------------------- Highlights Violent crime rates fell 15% between 1999 and 2000, resulting in the greatest annual percentage decline and the lowest rates of violent crime recorded since the inception of the NCVS in 1973. * According to National Crime Victimization Survey, the violent crime rate fell 15% and the property crime rate fell 10%, 1999-2000. * Violent victimization and property crime rates in 2000 are the lowest recorded since the NCVS' inception in 1973.***Footnote 1: Based on adjustments to pre-1992 estimates to account for the 1992 redesign of the NCVS.*** * The overall violent crime rate decline resulted from a decrease in simple assault and rape/sexual assault coupled with a slight fall in aggravated assault during 2000. * Overall property crime rates fell between 1999 and 2000 due to a decrease in theft and a slight decline in motor vehicle theft. * From 1999 to 2000 violent crime rates fell for almost every demographic group considered: males, females, whites, blacks, non-Hispanics, and 12-to- 24 year-olds. Violent crime against Hispanics also fell somewhat during the period. * 48% of violent victimizations and 36% of property crimes were reported to the police in 2000. * From 1999 to 2000 the number of crimes of violence, completed or threatened, dropped about 1 million from 7.4 million to 6.3 million. * The majority of violent crime victims (67%) do not face an armed offender. Rape/sexual assault victims (6%) were the least likely, while robbery victims (55%) were the most likely, to face an armed offender. ------------------------------------------------------ Approximately 25.9 million violent and property victimizations occurred during the year 2000, according to data from the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS). Property crimes against U.S. households burglary, motor vehicle theft, and theft accounted for three- fourths of all victimizations. Violent crimes -- rape, sexual assault, robbery, and aggravated and simple assault -- against persons age 12 or older accounted for about a fourth. Personal theft -- pocket picking and purse snatching -- comprised 1% of victimizations. In 2000 the estimated 25.9 million victimizations represented a decline from 28.8 million property and violent crimes experienced in 1999. The 2000 level of violent crime continued a downward trend that began in 1994 and the 2000 level of property crime is the lowest since 1974. The number of criminal victimizations estimated for 2000 is the lowest ever recorded since 1973 when the NCVS began and measured 44 million victimizations. A rate of 28 violent victimizations per 1,000 persons age 12 or older in the year 2000 represents a 15% decrease from the 1999 rate (33 per 1,000). The 2000 violence rate was 44% less than the 50 per 1,000 in 1993, which was the first year a full sample was interviewed using the NCVS redesign. --------------------------------- Victimization trends, 1973-2000 The National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) was initiated in 1973. Refined by improvements like the 1992 redesign, the NCVS now can trace 27-year trends in U.S. criminal victimization. ***Footnote 2: For more information about the redesign, see The Effects of the Redes- ign on Victimization Estimates (NCJ 164381), National Crime Victimization Survey (NCJ 151169), National Crime Victimization Survey Redesign: Fact Sheet (NCJ 151170), Technical Background (NCJ 151172), and the Questions & Answers (NCJ 151171).*** Record lows The 15% drop in violent crime rates, 1999- 2000, is the largest single-year percent decrease ever measured by the NCVS. Among crimes the NCVS accounts for, the year 2000 rates per 1,000 persons or households for overall violent crime (28), simple assault (18), and household theft (138) were the lowest ever recorded. Other crime rates registered at their lowest point but were still not significantly different from the 1999 rates. These rates included -- * 3 robberies and 6 aggravated assaults per 1,000 persons * 32 burglaries and 9 motor vehicle thefts per 1,000 households. Violent crime Violent crime victimization rates fluctuated between 1973 and 1994. Beginning in 1994, the violent crime rate steadily declined. Ten percent reductions in the violent crime rate occurred between 1994 and 1995 and between 1995 and 1996, followed by 7% decreases between 1996 and 1997 and between 1997 and 1998. Robbery rates have moved in concert with overall violent crime rates. Initially, through 1978, robbery rates fell and then reversed course and increased until 1981. The increase continued at a slower pace through 1985. The robbery rate then rose slowly until 1994 when it began to decrease. Aggravated assault rates declined with some interruptions from 1974 to the mid-1980's. Following several years of minimal increases and decreases, the aggravated assault rate increased from 1990 to 1993. In 1994 and afterward, the aggravated assault rate fell steadily, reaching the current level at half the 1994 rate (12 per 1,000). Simple assault, the most common form of violent crime measured by the NCVS, increased from 1974 to 1977 and remained stable until 1979. The rate then declined until 1989, when it increased through 1994. After 1994 the rate fell to the lowest level to date -- 18 per 1,000 persons. Property crime Aside from a 1973-74 increase, property crime rates have fallen throughout NCVS history. The burglary rate, after a period of slow decline interrupted by an increase from 1980 to 1981, fell each year. The 2000 burglary rate was about a third of the 1973 adjusted rate. Motor vehicle theft rates, despite some periods of increase, primarily declined from 1973 through 2000. The 2000 rate of 9 per 1,000 households was half that of 1973 (19 motor vehicle thefts per 1,000 households). Thefts increased between 1973 and 1974, then remained stable until 1977. After 1978 theft rates declined steadily, reaching the lowest recorded rate in 2000. -------------------------------- The apparent increase in personal theft rates from 0.9 per 1,000 persons in 1999 to 1.2 per 1,000 persons in 2000 was not statistically significant. The rates of property victimization fell 10% from 1999 to 2000, from 198 to 178 property crimes per 1,000 households. The 2000 estimate of property crime continued a steady downward trend that began in 1974. Criminal victimization, 1999 to 2000 Violent crime The NCVS collects data on nonfatal violent crimes against persons age 12 or older in the United States. These crimes may or may not have been reported to the police. The Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Program of the FBI collects data on homicide. Violent crimes measured by the NCVS Overall violent victimization refers to rape, sexual assault, robbery, aggravated assault, and simple assault. Overall violent victimization rates declined 15% from 33 to 28 victimizations per 1,000 persons between 1999 and 2000. A significant decline in the rate of attempted or threatened violent crime coupled with a slight decline in the rate of completed violent crime contributed to this decrease in overall violence. The rates of simple assault and rape/sexual assault decreased significantly between 1999 and 2000. Aggravated assault rates fell slightly, while the apparent decrease in the robbery rate was not significant. The decline in violent victimization rates was experienced by almost every demographic group considered between 1999 and 2000. The rate at which males, females, whites, blacks, and non- Hispanic persons were violently victimized decreased significantly between 1999 and 2000. Number of property crimes per 1,000 households Percent 1999 2000 change Male 37 32.9 -11.1%* Female 28.8 23.2 -19.4%* White 31.9 27.1 -15.0%* Black 41.6 35.3 -15.1* Other 24.5 20.7 -15.5 Hispanic 33.8 28.4 -16.0%** Non-Hispanic 32.4 27.7 -14.5 * 1999-2000 difference is significant at the - *95%-confidence level **90%-confidence level. Hispanics were victimized at slightly lower rates in 2000 than 1999. There was no significant difference between the years in the rates at which persons of "other" races (Asians, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, Alaska Natives, and American Indians considered together) were victimized. Violent victimization rates fell significantly for persons ages 12-24 and ages 35-49. The decline in victimization of persons between 12 and 24 is noteworthy because they have historically experienced the highest rates of violent victimization. Number of violent crimes per 1,000 persons age 12 or older Percent 1999 2000 change 12-15 years 74.4 60.1 -19.2%* 16-19 years 77.4 64.3 -16.9* 20-24 years 68.5 49.4 -27.9* 25-34 years 36.3 34.8 -4.1 35-49 years 25.2 21.8 -13.5* 50-64 years 14.4 13.7 -4.9 65+year 3.8 3.7 -2.6 *1999-2000 difference is significant at the 95%-confidence level. No clear association existed between the categories of annual household income and changes from 1999 to 2000 in violent victimization rates. Compared to 1999, persons who had never married or who were divorced or separated had significantly lower violent victimization rates in 2000. ------------------------------------------ Change in violent victimization, by category 1999-2000 The figure shows the estimated annual percentage change in victimization rates from 1999 to 2000 for the categories that comprise violent crime: homicide, rape and sexual assault, aggravated assault, simple assault, and robbery. The crime categories are displayed vertically according to their 2000 rates per 1,000 population age 12 or older. Total violent (the sum of all types) is first with the highest rate, and murder is last with the lowest rate. Because the National Crime Victimization Survey relies on a sample of households, the rates and numbers from it are estimates and are not exact. Each horizontal bar shows the range within which the true percent change in rates from year to year is likely to fall. If a bar is clear of the "No change" line, one may be reasonably certain a change occurred. If a bar crosses the "No change" line, there is a possibility that there was no change. The degree of certainty depends on where the bar crosses the line. A line shadows the bottom and a side of those bars representing crime categories in which a statistically significant year-to-year change occurred. Bar lengths vary from crime to crime, dependent upon a variety of factors such as sample size and rarity of the event. Because homicide rates are derived from nonsample data, the preliminary value for the 1999-2000 homicide rate change is given as a point estimate and not as a range of estimates. Murder rates have no variance associated with their point estimates, though some discrepancies exist between UCR rates and Vital Statistics of the National Center for Health Statistics. ---------------------------------- At 42 violent victimizations per 1,000 persons, divorced or separated persons experienced a fifth less violence than a year earlier. Apparent changes in the rates for widowed or married persons were not significant. Number of violent crimes per 1,000 persons age 12 or older Percent 1999 2000 change Less than $7,500 57.5 60.3 4.9% $7,500-$14,999 44.5 37.8 -15.1* $15,000-$24,999 35.3 31.8 -9.9 $25,000-$34,999 37.9 29.8 -21.4* $35,000-$49,999 30.3 28.5 -5.9 $50,000-$74,999 33.3 23.7 -28.8* $75,000 or more 22.9 22.3 -2.6 Never married 60.6 51.4 -15.2%* Married 14.4 12.8 -11.1 Widowed 6.0 8.1 35.0 Divorced/separated 53.6 42.2 -21.3* 1999-2000 difference is significant at the -- *95%-confidence level **90%-confidence level. For residents of the West -- historically associated with the highest victimization rates -- apparent victimization declines were not significant. Persons living in the Northeast, Midwest, and South were victims of violent crime at lower rates in 2000 than in 1999. Number of violent crimes per 1,000 persons age 12 or older Percent 1999 2000 change Northeast 29.6 23.5 -20.6%* Midwest 35.5 30.4 -14.4* South 30.2 24.9 -17.5* West 36.9 33.9 -8.1 Urban 39.8 35.1 -11.8%* Suburban 32.8 25.8 -21.3* Rural 24.9 23.6 -5.2 *1999-2000 difference is significant at the 95% confidence level. Urbanites and suburbanites experienced violent victimization at rates lower in 2000 than in 1999. Rural residents had no measurable change in the rate of violent crime. Murder and nonnegligent manslaughter measured by the UCR Preliminary UCR estimates for the year 2000 indicate a 1.1% decrease in the number of murders in 2000, compared to 1999. Estimates also show declines in the number of murders occurring in the (-1.5%), West (-4.5%), and Midwest (-4.4%). The number of homicides in the Northeast increased 5.5%, 1999-2000. Property crime The NCVS includes as property crimes burglary, motor vehicle theft, and theft. Between 1999 and 2000, overall property crime rates fell 10% from 198 to 178 crimes per 1,000 households. The decline in overall property crime rates is explained by significant decreases in theft, primarily completed theft. A slight decline in the rate of motor vehicle theft was evident. The rate at which households were burglarized in 2000 was similar to the 1999 rate. Property crime rates declined between 1999 and 2000 for several of the demographic groups. For every racial category, households experienced property crimes at rates lower in 2000 than in 1999. Fewer property victimizations occurred among non-Hispanic households in 2000 than in 1999. No measurable change occurred in the rate of property crime for Hispanics. Number of property crimes per 1,000 households Percent 1999 2000 change White 190.0 173.3 -8.8%* Black 249.9 212.2 -15.1* Other 206.3 171.3 -17.0* Hispanic 232.5 227.0 -2.4% Non-Hispanic 194.6 173.4 -10.9* *1999-2000 difference is significant at the 95-confidence level. Households in all income categories except two experienced property crime in 2000 at rates at least somewhat lower than those in 1999. Households with an annual income of less than $7,500 or with an income between $25,000 and $34,999 experienced property crimes at similar rates in2000 and 1999. Number of property crimes per 1,000 households Percent 1999 2000 change Less than $7,500 220.8 220.9 -- $7,500-$14,999 200.1 167.1 -16.5%* $15,000-$24,999 214.9 193.1 -10.1* $25,000-$34,999 199.1 192.2 -3.5 $35,000-$49,999 207.6 192.9 -7.1** $50,000-$74,999 213.6 181.9 -14.8* $75,000 or more 220.4 197.2 -10.5* 1999-2000 difference is significant at the -- *95%-confidence level. **90%-confidence level. ------------------------------------ Murder in the United States, 2000 In 1999 the FBI reported a total of 15,533 murders in the United States. To make an estimate for 2000, the number of murders reported from January to June 2000 was compared to the same period in 1999. The estimate yielded a 1.8% decrease in murder. Based on this decrease, the preliminary estimate for the entire year 2000 is 15,253 murders. The FBI's Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) program gathers statistics on murder from over 16,000 city, county, and State law enforcement agencies. The FBI defines murder in its annual Crime in the United States as the willful, nonnegligent killing of one human being by another. Murder rates differ based on victim characteristics, but the relationship between victim characteristics and incidence of homicide tends to remain the same. Past homicide data suggest that in general: * Males account for three-quarters of all murder victims. * White and black persons each account for about half of all homicide victims. * About 1 in 8 people murdered are younger than 18 years old. * Firearms are used in about 7 in 10 murders. * Murder rates tend to be highest in the South and lowest in the Northeast. * Large cities have higher murder rates than small cities and rural areas. --------------------------------------------- Households in all regions experienced property crime at rates lower in 2000 than in 1999. Number of property crimes per 1,000 households Percent 1999 2000 change Northeast 159.5 143.7 -9.9%* Midwest 199.9 181.9 -9.0* South 191.4 167.8 -12.3* West 243.1 223.4 -8.1* Urban 256.3 222.1 -13.3%* Suburban 181.4 163.7 -9.8* Rural 159.8 152.6 -4.5 *1999-2000 difference is significant at the 95-confidence level. Households in urban and suburban areas experienced property crime at lower rates in 2000 compared to 1999. No measurable change in property crime rates was noted for households in rural areas, 1999-2000. Regardless of whether a household was owned or rented, property crime occurred at lower rates in 2000 than in 1999. Number of property crimes per 1,000 households Percent 1999 2000 change Owned 170.4 153.4 -10.0%* Rented 251.9 228.3 -9.4* *1999-2000 difference is significant at the 95-confidence level. Characteristics of violent crime victims, 2000 While violent crime rates declined significantly for almost every demographic group examined, those most vulnerable to violent victimization in the past -- males, teens, and blacks, for example -- continued to be the most vulnerable in 2000. Gender of victim Males were victims of overall violent crime, robbery, total assault, aggravated assault, and simple assault at rates higher than females in 2000. Males experienced violent crime at rates 42% greater, were robbed at rates 125% greater, and were victims of aggravated assault at rates 159% greater than females. Females were victims of rape or sexual assault at rates 21 times those of males during 2000. Age of victim In general the younger the person, the higher rate of violent victimization, regardless of the type of violence considered. In 2000 persons ages 12-15 and ages 16-19 experienced overall violence at similar rates, which were at least somewhat higher than rates of persons in older categories. Beginning with the 20-24 age category, the rate at which persons were victims of violence declined significantly as the age category increased. Race of victim Blacks were violently victimized and robbed at rates higher than whites and persons of "other races" during 2000.***Footnote 3: In this report, "other races" and "others" are defined as Asians, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, Alaska Natives, and American Indians considered together.*** Blacks were victims of simple assault at rates higher than the rates of persons of "other races." Blacks were victims of aggravated assault at rates greater than those of whites. Whites were violently victimized and victims of simple assault at rates greater than persons of "other races" in 2000. Hispanic origin of victim Non-Hispanics and Hispanics were victims of overall violent crime, total assault, aggravated assault, and simple assault at similar rates during 2000. The rate of rape or sexual assault was greater for non-Hispanics than Hispanics, and the rate of robbery, greater for Hispanics than non- Hispanics. Household income In general, the lower the person's annual household income, the higher the rate of violent victimization during 2000. Persons in households with annual incomes of less than $7,500 annually experienced violence at rates significantly greater than persons in every other income bracket. Individuals in households with annual incomes of $75,000 or more were victims of violent crime overall and aggravated assault at rates about a third of the rates of persons in households making less than $7,500 a year. Marital status In 2000 persons who had never married were victimized by violent crime at rates greater than those of persons with other marital statuses. Persons who had never married experienced violence at a rate about 6 times that of widowed persons and 4 times that of married persons. Divorced or separated individuals experienced violence at rates higher than those who were married who, in turn, had higher victimization rates than widowed persons. Region Western and Midwestern residents were victimized by violent crime at similar rates in 2000. Northeastern and Southern residents also experienced violent crime at similar rates. The violent crime rates of Westerners and Midwesterners were significantly greater than those of persons in the Northeast and South. Residence Urban residents experienced overall violence, robbery, total assault, and simple assault at rates higher than suburban and rural residents in 2000. Suburban residents were robbed at a rate greater than rural residents. Suburban and rural persons sustained overall violence, total assault, aggravated assault, and simple assault at rates that did not differ statistically. For rape and sexual assault, urban residents had higher rates than suburban residents, and rural residents had had slightly higher rates than suburban residents. Victim-offender relationship Fifty-three percent of all victims of violent crime identified the offender(s) as an intimate, relative, friend, or acquaintance in 2000. Among those who had experienced violence, victims of rape or sexual assault and victims of simple assault were the most likely to report knowing the offender (62% and 61%, respectively). Robbery victims had the lowest percentage (28%) of having known the offender. Victims identified intimate partners (current or former spouses, boyfriends, or girlfriends) as the perpetrator in 10% of violent crime overall, 17% of rapes and sexual assaults, and 13% of simple assaults. A higher percentage of female (21%) than male (3%) victims identified an intimate as the offender. An intimate partner committed 18% of the rapes and sexual assaults and 13% of the aggravated assaults sustained by females. Females identified friends or acquaintances as the offender(s) in a substantial portion of the violence that they experienced. Thirty-seven percent of overall violent crime and 42% of rapes and sexual assaults came at the hands of a person the female victim called a friend or acquaintance. Thirty-eight percent of female victims of aggravated assault said the offender(s) was a friend or acquaintance. About a third of all female victims of violent crime, as well as a third of female victims of rape or sexual assault, described the offender(s) as a stranger. Among female robbery victims, 60% identified the offender as a stranger. As has been the case historically, males were more likely than females to be victimized by strangers. Fifty-four percent of male victims of violence stated that the offender was a stranger. Seventy-four percent of male robbery victims identified the robber as a stranger. Male victims knew the perpetrator in about 4 in 10 violent crimes during 2000. Of violent crimes sustained by males, a friend or acquaintance committed 38% of overall violent crime, 30% of aggravated assaults, and 45% of simple assaults. Weapon use Most victims of violent crimes except robbery do not face an armed offender. Sixty-seven percent of victims of violent crimes were victimized by an offender(s) who was not armed. Rape and sexual assault victims were least likely to face an armed offender (6%), and robbery victims were most likely to face an armed offender (55%). Overall, 8% of victims of violence faced a firearm, 7% faced a knife, and 10% described the weapon as something other than a firearm or knife. The type of weapon present varied depending upon the type of violence considered. For example, 3% of victims of rape or sexual assault faced an offender armed with a firearm, compared to 26% of robbery victims and 6% of assault victims. Similarly, 3% of rape/sexual assault victims were confronted by an offender brandishing a knife, compared to 14% of robbery victims and 6% of assault victims. Characteristics of property crime victims, 2000 Race of head of household Blacks were victims of all property crimes -- regardless of the type -- at rates higher than whites during 2000. Blacks sustained overall property crime, burglary, and theft at rates significantly greater than persons of "other races." Blacks and persons of "other races" had a motor vehicle stolen at similar rates during 2000. Hispanic origin of head of household Regardless of the type of property crime considered, Hispanic households sustained property crime at rates significantly greater than non-Hispanic households. Annual household income The relationship between annual household income and property crime depended upon the crime category. In general, estimates suggest that the higher the annual household income, the lower the rates of burglary during 2000. In contrast during the same period, the higher the annual household income, the higher the rate of theft. Because of these counteracting associations between the categories of property crime, no clear relationship existed between household income and overall property crime during 2000. Region, locality, and home ownership Western households sustained the highest rate and Northeastern households experienced the lowest rate of overall property crime during 2000. Southern and Midwestern households experienced similar rates of property crime during this period. Urban households were the most vulnerable to overall property crime, burglary, motor vehicle theft, and theft during 2000. Suburban households experienced motor vehicle theft at rates significantly higher than rural households. No measurable difference in suburban and rural rates of burglary, overall property crime, and household theft emerged during the year 2000. Property crime occurred at greater rates among households residing in rented property than in those in owned property, regardless of the type of property crime considered. Reporting to the police Forty-eight percent of all violent victimizations and 36% of all property crimes were reported to the police during 2000. Of the violent crimes in 2000, 56% of robbery and 57% of aggravated assault were reported to police. Of property crimes, motor vehicle theft continued to be reported at the highest percentage (80%), and theft at the lowest (30%). Reporting crime to the police over time The percentage of victimizations reported to police in 2000 increased significantly from 1999 levels for several categories of crime. The percentages of overall violent crime, rape and sexual assault, simple assault, overall property crime, and property theft reported to the police increased significantly. Robberies, aggravated assaults, personal thefts, motor vehicle thefts, and burglaries were reported to the police in statistically similar percentages in 1999 and 2000. Between 1993 and 2000 the number and types of crimes that had increased reporting to the police differed slightly from the 1999-2000 comparisons. Simple assault and motor vehicle theft were reported in significantly higher percentages in 2000 than in 1993. Slightly higher percentages of rape/ sexual assault, robbery, and personal theft were reported in 2000 than in 1993. ***Footnote 4: The increase in the percentage of rapes/sexual assaults reported to the police, 1999-2000, was based on 10 or fewer sample cases.*** There were no measurable changes in the percentages of overall violent crime, aggravated assault, overall property crime, burglary, and theft reported to the police, 1993-2000. Reporting and victim characteristics Violence against females was reported to police in higher percentages than violence against males during 2000. The police were notified about 43% of all violence experienced by males and 55% of all violence experienced by females during 2000. The gender difference in reporting to police existed by varying degrees for victims of different races. A significantly higher percentage of violence against white females compared to white males was reported. A somewhat higher percentage of violence perpetrated against black females compared to black males was reported to the police in 2000. The percent reported did not differ significantly between males and females of "other races." Considering only males or only females, the percentage of violent victimizations reported to the police did not differ significantly across racial categories or by the Hispanic origin of the victim. Victim gender, Percent of crime reported race and to the police, 2000 Hispanic origin Violent Property Total 47.9% 35.7% Male 42.9% 35.6% White 42.2 35.7 Black 45.6 35.5 Other 48.9 33.8 Hispanic 47.7 33.8 Non-Hispanic 42.1 35.8 Female 54.5% 35.9% White 54.6 35.4 Black 55.8 37.6 Other 47.1 39.2 Hispanic 61.2 31.1 Non-Hispanic 53.7 36.6 Victimization trends, 1993-2000 In 1993 the first full year of NCVS data collected after the redesign was available. For this reason, trends presented in this section use 1993 as the beginning point. The rate of every major violent and property crime measured in the NCVS -- rape/sexual assault, robbery, aggravated assault, simple assault, burglary theft, and motor vehicle theft fell significantly between 1993 and 2000. Murder and nonnegligent manslaughter A comparison of preliminary FBI data from January to June 2000 to the same period in 1999 shows that the overall number of murders in the United States committed during 2000 declined, continuing a decrease that began in 1993. Given the continued decline of 1.8% in the number of murders committed during the first 6 months of 2000, an estimated 61% decline in the number of U.S. murders is anticipated, 1993-2000. Violent crime The overall violent crime rate fell 44% from 50 to 28 victimizations per 1,000 persons between 1993 and 2000. Further significant declines were noted in rates of rape/sexual assault (down 52%), robbery (down 47%), aggravated assault (down 53%), and simple assault (down 40%). Rates for attempted rape were among those showing the greatest decline, 71% between 1993 and 2000. Personal theft Rates of personal theft (purse snatching and pocket picking) decreased 48% from 2.3 personal thefts in 1993 to 1.2 per 1,000 persons in 2000. Property crime From 1993 through 2000, the rate of overall property crime fell, as did the rate for each major type of property crime examined. Rates of household burglary fell 45%, motor vehicle theft fell 55%, and theft fell 43%. For all categories of property crime, attempted motor vehicle theft rates were among those showing the greatest decline, 59% between 1993 and 2000. ------------------------------------------- Trends in violent victimizatin, 1973-2000 Because the National Crime Victimization Survey relies on a sample of households, the rates and numbers from it are estimates and are not exact. The figure shows the violent victimization rate trend line, 1973-2000: Each vertical bar shows the range within which the true victimization rate is likely to fall for the indicated year. The white trend line represents the best estimate -- the most likely value for the rate in each year -- which is the published estimates. There is a greater likelihood that the true rate will fall near the best estimate, and the bars reflect that likelihood: The darker the bar segment, the greater the likelihood. The precision of estimates derived from samples is related to the sample size. In general, the larger the sample, the more precise the estimate and smaller the range bars. Some year-to-year changes are so large that contiguous bars do not touch (1980-81, 1982-83, 1990-91, 1994-95, 1995-96, and 1999-2000), suggesting a change in the year-to-year victimization rate. In other words, the difference is statistically significant. Overlap in the bars (1973-76 and 1986-90) suggests that the year-to-year differences in victimization estimates are too small to conclude a change in victimization rates occurred. Even with the range of possible victimization rates, general trends are apparent. Violent crime rates in- creased from the early 1970's to the early 1980's, then fell until the mid- 1980's. For several years in the late 1980's, violent crime rates were stable, but increased in the early 1990's and fell 1994-2000. For more information about this graph, see the BJS Technical Report Displaying Violent Crime Trends Using Estimates from the National Crime Victimization Survey, March 1998, NCJ 167881. ---------------------------------------- Characteristics of victims With few exceptions, persons in most demographic categories -- gender, race, Hispanic origin, household income, and locality -- experienced significant decreases in violent victimization, 1993-2000. The rate of violent victimization for each group fell significantly, with two exceptions. Violence against persons of "other races" demonstrated no measurable change, and violence against persons with annual household incomes of $75,000 or more fell slightly, 1993- 2000. Among groups examined, the largest decrease in the rate of violent crime occurred among Hispanic persons. As measured by the linear trend test, between 1993 and 2000, Hispanics experienced 5.7 fewer violent crimes (per 1,000 Hispanics) each year. Males experienced nearly the same magnitude of decrease of 4.6 violent crimes (per 1,000 males) each year, 1993-2000. Between 1993 and 2000 the rate at which all property crimes were committed in the United States fell regardless of the demographic group considered. Among groups considered, the greatest decline in property crime rates, as measured by a linear trend test, was among Hispanic households. Those households experienced 34.9 fewer property crimes per 1,000 Hispanic households on average each year in the period. Survey methodology This Bulletin presents data on non- lethal violence and property crimes from the National Crime Victimization Survey, and data on homicide from the FBI's Uniform Crime Reporting program. The NCVS collects data on nonfatal crimes against persons age 12 or older, reported and not reported to the police, from a nationally representative sample of households in the United States. The NCVS provides information about victims (age, gender, race, ethnicity, marital status, income and educational level), offenders (gender, race, approximate age, and victim-offender relations), and criminal offenses (time and place of occurrence, use of weapons, nature of injury, and economic consequences). In 2000, 86,800 households and 159,420 people age 12 or older were interviewed. For the 2000 NCVS data presented here, the response rate is 93.4% of eligible households and 89.6% of eligible individuals. The estimates in this Bulletin were calculated from data collected during the calendar year being estimated. That is, the data include victimizations that are identified in interviews conducted in 2000. Because of the retrospective nature of the survey, the estimates include some incidents that actually occurred during the previous year. Analyses comparing the victimization data collected in a calendar year to data occurring in a calendar year the victimization occurred (a data year) show small differences in estimates. For example, the 1995 violent crime rate was 44.5 (per 1,000) using data year data, compared to 46.6 using calendar year data. Differences in estimates obtained from data year and calendar year methods are greater during periods of changing rates and less during periods of stable rates. Standard error computations Comparisons of estimates discussed in this Bulletin were tested to determine if the differences were statistically significant. Differences described as higher, lower, or different passed a hypothesis test at the .05 level of statistical significance (95% confidence level). That is, the tested difference was greater than twice the standard error of that difference. For comparisons of estimates which were statistically significant at the 0.10 level (90% confidence level), differences are described as somewhat, marginal, or slight. Caution is required when making comparisons of estimates not explicitly discussed in the Bulletin. What may appear to be a large difference in estimates may not test as statistically significant at the 95%- or even the 90%-confidence level. Significance testing calculations were conducted at BJS using statistical programs developed specifically for the NCVS by the U.S. Census Bureau. These programs consider the complex NCVS sample design when calculating generalized variance estimates. Testing trends and annual differences in violent and property victimization When a statement is made describing differences in estimates between two years, it was tested for significance using a computer program designed specifically for the NCVS. These tests determine whether an estimate in one year differs from that of another, regardless of intervening estimate variation. For instance, the percent changes in victimization rates in table 8 were based on such a test. When a statement is made describing the increase or decrease of a linear trend, it was tested using a linear trend test. This test compares the slope of the trend to a horizontal line (a slope of zero). The purpose of this test is to ascertain whether the slope generated from a change in estimates differs from a flat trend - taking into account estimate variation in intervening years. The linear trend test is a regression equation using time as the independent variable, and the estimate of victimization as the dependent variable. A regression coefficient (b) and its corresponding standard error (F) are computed. Next a t-statistic -- the ratio b/F -- is calculated. If the t- statistic is greater than 1.96 for a two- tailed test, the slope is different from zero, and if the t-statistic is greater than 1.645 for a two-tailed test, the slope is slightly different from zero. If the t- statistic is less than the critical value, the trend of the estimates does not differ significantly from a flat line. This Bulletin uses linear trend tests in Characteristics of victims on page 13 and Reporting to the police on page 10. In NCVS Bulletins published prior to 1999, linear trend tests were not used. ---------------------------------- The Bureau of Justice Statistics is the statistical agency of the U.S. Department of Justice. Lawrence A. Greenfeld is acting director. This report continues the BJS Bulletin series of Criminal Victimization. BJS Bulletins present the first release of findings from permanent data collection programs such as the National Crime Victimization Survey. Callie M. Rennison, BJS Statistician, wrote this report under the supervision of Michael Rand. Marianne Zawitz, BJS Statistician, and Michael Maltz, BJS Fellow, produced figures 1 and 2. Detis Duhart provided statistical review. Tom Hester and Ellen Goldberg produced and edited the report. Jayne Robinson administered final production. June 2001, NCJ 187007 -------------------------------------- End of file 05/17/01 ih