THE NATIONAL DEFENSE PANEL
Assessment of the May 1997 Quadrennial Defense Review
The National Defense Panel (NDP) believes that the strategy and actions
outlined in the Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) will better position
our Armed Forces for success in the security environment of the 21st
Century. The QDR is an important step down the evolutionary path that
must be taken to reshape our military capabilities to meet the needs
of the nation in the next century. The principal points of the Panel's
assessment are summarized below:
- The strategy presented in the QDR addresses a full spectrum of
contingencies and is an improvement in understanding the post-Cold War
environment. Program decisions and priorities would benefit from a
much tighter linkage with this strategy.
- The QDR examined and reduced the size and force structure of the
total force without creating significant risk. It also calls for a
necessary "post-Cold War reality" look at the size and role of reserve
component forces. We support these actions.
- The QDR has proposed sensible changes and reductions to the
Department of Defense (DOD) infrastructure. However, additional
actions and legislative relief are necessary to permit aggressive
redesign of the infrastructure and adoption of appropriate business
practices. These will enable further reductions and refinements to
the infrastructure and better align it with the proposed force
structure.
- A distinct service focus is evident in the QDR, which is useful
and appropriate, but added effort is needed to encourage further
development of joint and combined operational concepts. Future
military success will depend heavily upon effective joint and combined
operations.
- While the QDR strategy took a longer view, other parts of the QDR
concentrated on the period through the year 2005. It is important to
emphasize a longer view as well, to ensure incorporation of the
revolution in military affairs, increased effectiveness of functions
carried out in space, and development of intelligence capabilities to
meet the challenges of the 21st Century.
PRINCIPAL OBSERVATIONS & RECOMMENDATIONS
The Panel views the QDR as a significant step forward in the adjustment
of our forces to reflect the demise of the Warsaw Pact and other
changes in the world environment. Nevertheless, there are a number of
areas where we differ over emphasis or priorities.
Strategy - The Panel believes the strategy presented
in the QDR represents an improvement in understanding future threats
and challenges. The QDR offers a strategic concept for shaping the
geostrategic environment, responding to the full spectrum of conflict,
and preparing for future challenges. The strategy provides a much
richer view of the challenges facing DOD in asymmetric warfare and
Smaller Scale Contingencies (SSCs). In addition to the dangers of
Major Theater Warfare (MTW) it also recognizes the significant demands
SSCs place on force structure, Operational Tempo (OPTEMPO), and
Personnel Tempo (PERSTEMPO). However, in the report there is
insufficient connectivity between strategy on the one hand, and force
structure, operational concepts, and procurement decisions on the
other. This is important, since the QDR addresses an even greater
array of challenges than we faced in the past with even fewer
resources than were available four years ago.
The QDR strategy opens the door to the revolution in military affairs
(RMA), which requires new warfighting concepts and new force
structures that capitalize on rapidly improving technologies. For
example, the strategy recognizes the value of increasing the capability
of U.S. forces to halt or control an adversary in the initial phases of
a conflict by incorporating new operational concepts and advanced
technologies such as extended-range precision strikes and information
operations. However, to the extent that the QDR views major theater
warfare as a traditional force-on-force challenge, this view inhibits
the transformation of the American military to fully exploit our
advantages as well as the vulnerabilities of potential opponents.
Also the Panel wishes to point out that, as a DOD effort, the QDR
focuses on the military dimension of our National Security Strategy.
However, in the future, greater attention needs to be given to the
important role played by other elements of the national security
establishment, as well as the critical support provided by our allies.
Effective use of diplomacy, involvement of international organizations,
foreign assistance programs of various types, as well as economic and
trade policy, can make important contributions to achieving our
security goals. The Panel urges all elements of the Executive Branch
with a role in National Security Strategy to focus on these issues now
that DOD has initiated the process. A coordinated and coherent
strategy and synergistic plans that look beyond the bounds of DOD will
further our national security objectives and ensure more effective use
of U.S. military forces.
Attention to the Longer Term - The QDR legislation
directed DOD to focus on the 2005 time frame. Moreover, near-term
program considerations were necessarily a major factor in the process.
However, the QDR strategy also looks beyond the 2005 time frame.
Assisting in this look has been the Chairman's Joint Vision 2010
(JV 2010) which provides additional valuable direction, as well as the
services' studies of the type forces they will need 10 to 20 years in
the future. This focus on the long-term capabilities and challenges is
essential, as is the need for military adaptation and innovation.
Indeed, one can look back to the 1920s and 1930s - a period of great
geopolitical and military-technical transformation - and see the
services engaged in bold experimentation within tightly constrained
budgets. That culture and process of innovation must be actively
encouraged so that our military will emerge at the end of this
transformation able to exploit the full potential of the RMA and
prepared to address the very different challenges the QDR correctly
foresees beyond 2010.
This process will likely witness some "false starts." Major attempts
at innovation rarely succeed on the first try. Moreover, while the
experimentation process should include integrated joint operations, a
healthy competition among the services should be encouraged -
efficiency and effectiveness come with competition.
Today's modernization plans should be linked to programs for exploiting
the RMA and preparing for new challenges through innovation and
experimentation. The systems we are buying today are the foundation of
our future force. We were encouraged to see RMA-related issues receive
greater attention as the QDR final report matured. Yet it is difficult
to find as much connectivity as we believe is required among the
specifics of the stated QDR strategy, the service visions, experiments,
and studies, and the resultant program and budget recommendations.
Future challenges affect more than just weapons and force structure.
The same dynamic characteristics which must be reflected in our
operating forces -- speed, flexibility and responsiveness -- should be
used to redesign the structures and processes used to manage them.
These same dynamics that describe our forces must also be imbedded in
the Planning, Programming and Budgeting System (PPBS) as well as the
acquisition process. These management tools were created to respond to
past needs, and must be rethought to be compatible with current and
future challenges. Recent steps to reform acquisition are commendable,
and must be continued and in fact expanded. In short, the demands of
the 21st Century's competitive environment must be reflected in all
aspects of managing and supporting our nationÕs military power.
Force Structure/Military Personnel - The Panel agrees
that the force structure and military personnel reductions can be
taken without creating significant risk. They are modest in number and
do not significantly affect those forces that are heavily stressed by
today's operational tempo. The nature and scope of the QDR reductions
were based in large part on maintaining only those forces deemed
necessary for the 2-MTW contingencies and the SSC-driven PERSTEMPO.
In the near term, this may be appropriate, but the Panel believes that
there is another perspective that should be considered over time.
- In the short run, steps to augment the most highly stressed
elements of the force structure should be considered (e.g., Military
Police (MP), Airborne Warning and Control System (AWACS), PATRIOT,
Special Operations Forces (SOF), etc.). Such increases may necessarily
be at the expense of other elements of the force structure.
- As new technologies mature, very different operational concepts
will be feasible and they will lead to demands for quite different
forces and equipment. As a result, the fairly conventional approaches
used in the QDR's MTW assessments may not generate an optimal force
structure.
- Though relevant today, in the future it will be even more critical
to address threats by exploiting our strengths to maximum advantage -
advanced technology and operational concepts, high quality and
well-trained personnel, and flexible leadership. This may permit us to
be successful with smaller but far more lethal and effective forces.
- Major changes in active forces also should affect the Reserve
Components and lead to significant changes in their structures and
operations Ð and likely increase their value to national security.
At this point, it is difficult to assess the effects of other
significant changes in our security environment. The increased risk of
terrorism to the U.S. (especially the use of Weapons of Mass
Destruction (WMD)) has received some attention. Less attention has
been given to the implications of the emergence of transnational
security threats as evidenced by hostile states and non-state actors,
to include the commerce in proscribed weapon technologies, the illegal
drug trade, and disruption of information systems. These threats pose
challenges to us and our allies in new and unanticipated ways. The rise
of organized crime operating across borders already is challenging
security and stability in key states where the U.S. has vital
interests, including Russia. Devising new instruments to counter these
risks is an urgent priority which warrants far more attention.
Reserve Forces -- The use of the reserve components
has expanded in recent years and indications are that this trend will
continue. In some service components, much has already been
accomplished in the process of ensuring that the reserve components are
sized and shaped to meet the requirements of an evolving strategy.
Active and reserve component leaders who have carried out these changes
deserve a great deal of credit. However, important work remains.
The most difficult remaining issues relate to the Army Guard.
Considerable progress has been made in recent years, starting with the
very productive "off-site" meeting in 1993, but further changes need to
be made. The Panel supports the QDR recommendation that additional
realignments and reductions are needed in the Army Reserve Component
force structure. The first step should be a specific articulation of
the missions of the National Guard Divisions in order to structure,
size and equip them optimally. A dramatically changing environment
dictates a fresh look at forces previously maintained as a strategic
reserve. This reserve may no longer be needed and the Army National
Guard may need to downsize and reorganize to reestablish its relevance
in the post-Cold War world. The Panel plans to examine the
recommendations of the Commission on Roles and Missions of the Armed
Services as well as the results of upcoming "off-site" agreements as
part of our assessment of alternative force structures.
Access to and Use of Forward Basing Facilities Ð Power
projection will likely remain a fundamental concept of our future
force. Accordingly, the need for close cooperation with our allies is
an essential element of our defense and security strategies. For
nearly a century, the U.S. military has relied upon access to forward
basing and forward bases as a key element in its ability to project
power. This has been recently underscored by the Administration's
decision to maintain 100,000 personnel in both Europe and Asia, a
decision the NDP supports.
However, U.S. forces' long-term access to forward bases, to include air
bases, ports, and logistics facilities cannot be assumed. Access may
be granted or denied for any number of political or military reasons.
Moreover, U.S. forces may find themselves called upon to project power
in areas where no substantial basing structure exists. Perhaps most
important, with the diffusion of cruise and ballistic missile
technology, weapons of mass destruction, and access to space, the
capability to hold at risk large soft targets at great range will
likely accrue to even regional rogue states. The QDR, in our view,
accorded insufficient attention to our ability to project power under
these circumstances.
Infrastructure -- The U.S. effort to build a superb
force ready to move into the 21st Century is being held back by a Cold
War infrastructure. In general terms, DOD has reduced force structure
by about 40 percent while Continental United States (CONUS)
infrastructure has decreased only about 20 percent. While a pure
linear relationship does not exist, the Panel supports the QDR's
efforts to reduce significantly DOD's support costs. This will allow
the Department to fund anticipated operations and support (O&S;) costs
and thus stabilize the planned procurement, Science & Technology (S&T;),
and Research & Development (R&D;) programs that are essential to
maintaining our technology edge as we move into the 21st Century.
Unless this imbalance is corrected, DOD's ability to protect our
national security interests may be seriously compromised.
While the QDR gives considerable attention to this critical area, it is
the Panel's view that it deserves greater priority and more aggressive
execution. We understand that DOD needs the support of Congress to
meet this challenge. Given the importance of this matter, we have
three specific recommendations.
- We concur with the Secretary's assessment that the QDR did not go
far enough in examining defense agencies, headquarters, and related
infrastructure. We endorse both his commissioning of a Task Force on
Defense Reform and his directive to conduct a special study on
headquarters and cross-service specialties. In forming the Task Force
we strongly recommend including one or more business leaders who have
direct experience in the dramatic reengineering of American industry
over the past decade. We look forward to working with the Task Force
during our respective deliberations.
- We concur with all the defense agency and service proposals to
reduce support and infrastructure costs. We believe many of these
proposals can and should be initiated immediately. Moreover, these
actions, where appropriate, should be incorporated into the Defense
Agency and Service Program Objective Memoranda (POM) this summer.
Waiting for the results of further study, to include the Task Force
efforts, will delay the harvesting of savings badly needed to meet the
Department's modernization goals.
- We endorse the Secretary's plan to request authority for two
additional rounds of Base Closure And Realignment (BRAC). We strongly
urge the Administration to support legislation that will start this
process in 1999 and encourage Congress to approve the request despite
constituency challenges. Indeed, permanent BRAC authority would be
most desirable to facilitate adjustments in the base structure as
needs and forces change.
The Panel also recognizes the many constraints placed upon the
Department by legislation which, over time, have seriously degraded the
Secretary's abilities to improve business practices. We urge the
Department to immediately propose "deregulation" legislation which
would permit the Secretary to aggressively pursue the revolution in
business affairs (RBA), freeing the Department from unnecessary cost
and managerial overhead. The list of needed reforms is long. A few
examples of the statutory provisions that should be rescinded are:
- -- full public/private competition is required for any function
involving more than ten employees before that function can be outsourced,
- -- 60 percent of depot maintenance must be performed in government
depots,
- -- firefighting and security functions must be performed by
government personnel.
There is wide understanding of the steps that need to be taken. The
Departments and Agencies should be tasked to rapidly implement actions
to reduce costs in such areas as base operations, classroom training,
and equipment maintenance and overhaul. In our view, the Congress
will respond positively to clear statements from the Secretary and the
Joint Chiefs of Staff that significant savings in the support and
infrastructure areas are essential to funding programs that will
protect our nation's security interests in the 21st Century.
Access to and Use of Space -- Space is clearly of
great importance to national security and we must maximize the
effectiveness of functions carried out in space. Moreover, its value
and range of uses will almost certainly increase exponentially over
the next two decades. Access to space-based information allows us to
better apply the military and civilian systems we currently have as
well as those in the acquisition stream. Threats to space access and
our space-based systems include computer "hacking", electronic jamming,
and future laser and kinetic energy systems. One can expect threats
in space to further increase as the technology grows. It is the
Panel's view that use of space and vulnerability to space threats
received insufficient attention in the QDR. The Department needs to
develop a strategy for maintaining access to space. Military strategy
and doctrine in the 21st Century will be effective and viable only if
space is addressed as a frontier vital to the warfight.
- Strategic nuclear forces remain an essential element
of our National Security Strategy. Our strategic forces have been
scaled back significantly over the past decade and further cuts are
planned and are justified. Currently these plans are on hold awaiting
Russian Duma ratification of START II. Should the Duma continue to
delay ratification, the U.S. will face very significant costs to
maintain START I force levels. Costs in FY98 are modest but increase
sharply thereafter. The Panel believes such expenditures would be a
serious mistake irrespective of Duma action on START II and a waste of
resources that could be put to other uses such as increasing funding
for National Missile Defense (NMD) as recommended in the QDR.
We believe the move to START II force levels should proceed even if the
Duma fails to act on START II this year. This is not just a DOD
issue. The executive branch and Congress must work in concert to
remove existing statutory impediments. Other agencies involved in
national security as well as the Congress must consider the realities
of defense resource needs when START issues are addressed. We also
support the Administration's move to initiate START III negotiations
promptly.
In addition, the Nunn-Lugar Cooperative Threat Reduction Agreement,
aimed at reducing the risk from unsecured weapons in the former Soviet
Union, remains an essential part of our overall strategy. This program
must remain robust if we are to simultaneously reduce strategic threats
while maintaining positive control and accountability.
OTHER MATTERS TO BE CONSIDERED
During the Panel's internal deliberations and in meetings with senior
defense leaders, a number of matters were discussed which deserve
careful consideration during the Program/Budget review. Some of these
are outlined below.
Risk in Defense Resources -- The Panel considers the
modernization plan to have more budget risk than is acknowledged by the
QDR. The funding necessary to attain the constant $60B procurement
goal beginning in 2001 and hence, satisfy the Defense Strategy, rests
on several key assumptions either specified or implied:
Two BRAC rounds will occur, yield the necessary savings in the
outyears, and be affordable,
Projected savings will be realized from Infrastructure Reform
which faces many legislative challenges,
Army Off-site concerning Reserve Components will be successful and
not require unplanned funding,
Acquisition reform will continue to yield efficiencies and
savings,
DOD Total Obligation Authority will remain at a constant $250B
despite domestic pressures.
The Panel considers each of these assumptions to be somewhat tenuous.
Collectively, they represent a budget risk which could potentially
undermine the entire Defense Strategy.
Joint & Combined Operations and Training -- Inherent
in the QDR's description of the U.S. future strategy is a strong
signal that future operations will take on an ever-increasing joint
nature. We are concerned about the ability of our forces to work in
concert now and in the future. To work together effectively, our
forces must first develop a comprehensive understanding of component
and joint force capabilities and operational concepts. This
understanding can only be developed through a vigorous program of
joint training exercises and experiments, a concept the Panel
supports. The use of networking and linked simulations, particularly
at the Joint Task Force (JTF) level, can be further expanded to
maximize training without adverse consequences on OPTEMPO and
PERSTEMPO.
The Panel believes a much stronger reliance on JV 2010 is needed in
every facet of future defense planning. However, joint operations
alone do not guarantee success. We must continue to work with our
friends and allies to enhance our combined capabilities. CINC
operations with allies must also be seen as shaping and preparing
opportunities as well as for their burden-sharing benefits. The Panel
plans to examine the promise of JV 2010 in developing our alternatives
for future forces.
Intelligence - The QDR addresses the need for 21st
Century global information superiority which is critical to the
successful execution of the strategy. This entire issue deserves more
careful study, although we recognize that classification requirements
limit what can be covered in public reports. Nonetheless, it is
important to note that the strategy makes it imperative to collect,
analyze and disseminate strategic and tactical intelligence anytime and
anyplace, regardless of weather. This imperative should include Human
Intelligence (HUMINT), imagery and Signals Intelligence (SIGINT) as
well as ground, airborne and space systems. The integration of these
systems to provide a comprehensive assessment of a potential or actual
enemy remains a weakness. This is especially true at the strategic and
operational levels. It is not apparent that the QDR has assessed the
importance of these systems for the future. As the asymmetric
challenges of the future increase the complexity of warfare, the
importance of HUMINT and other intelligence disciplines will likely
grow. Finally the QDR makes a plea for improved and seamless
collection capabilities, but programmatic decisions suggest a different
direction (e.g. the Joint Surveillance and Target Attack Radar System
(JSTARS) reduced buy).
Analytical Approach - Models and gaming were used
extensively in much of the analysis done during the QDR, especially in
force structure studies and the Deep Attack Weapons Mix Study (DAWMS)
analysis (munitions and platforms). Most of the cases studied were the
Korea and Persian Gulf scenarios, with emphasis on conventional
force-on-force assaults. But the models used, such as TACWAR, were
developed originally for analysis of the NATO-Warsaw Pact Central Front
scenario. Ten years ago they were believed to have significant
shortcomings, even for that use, because of their reliance on
deterministic force attrition concepts and inadequate attention to
such important elements of warfare as air power. Moreover, the
continued introduction of sophisticated military systems such as
airborne surveillance platforms, nonlethals, stealthy platforms,
standoff weapons and modern day information systems, into our force
structure is changing our conduct of warfare in ways that make those
analytic models even less relevant today. This is particularly true
for analysis of the 2-MTW and multiple-SSC scenarios reflected in the
QDR.
The Joint Staff's Dynamic Commitment (DC) series of seminars brought
needed attention to the impact of SSCs on our forces. The
applicability of the DC series, however, lies only within the realm of
force availability. It is not a traditional war game, and does not
actually "fight" the forces employed in its scenarios. Further, it
reflects only today's forces against historically-based vignettes as
opposed to preparing for likely future challenges (e.g. urban warfare,
weapons of mass destruction, and non-state entities such as organized
crime).
The Department has a plan for introducing both a Joint Simulation
System (JSIMS) and a Joint Warfare System (JWARS) to improve both
simulations and war games. These models and simulations promise a
clear improvement over today's tools, but may be of limited value if
they cannot capture the characteristics of the emerging conflict
environment (e.g. operations with no clear front lines, space, and the
information dimension of warfare). To be of maximum utility, they must
also reflect the key elements that give the U.S. significant asymmetric
advantage, such as high quality personnel, flexible leadership,
realistic and intense training, information operations, stealth,
counter-stealth, and precision munitions. New tools are essential for
ongoing force structure decisions as well as the next QDR in 2001. We
urge the Department to make greater efforts to broaden the range of
models and analytic tools it has available and to accelerate their
availability.
* * * * * * * *
The NDP is now turning its focus to the tasks it was assigned for
submission to the Secretary of Defense by December 1, 1997. As we
proceed, we will continue to work closely with the Department in hopes
our efforts will be of use to DOD as it refines its plans and programs
over the course of this summer and fall. In addition, we will endeavor
to provide the Department and the Congress with assessments and
recommendations that will enrich the ongoing debates on national
security.
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