SPECIAL REPORT 37

"Trialogue": U.S.-Japan-China Relations and Asian-Pacific Stability

Key Points

• Japan, the People's Republic of China (PRC), and the United States all face regional and global challenges such as the Asian financial crisis and the proliferation of long-range missiles and weapons of mass destruction. These challenges underscore the importance of regional and trilateral dialogue, consultation, and coordination. Global changes resulting from the increased flow of information and capital across national borders, the emerging and contradictory influences of nonstate actors at the local and international level, and the difficulties of reconciling the constraints of domestic political imperatives with the responsibilities of international leadership also require trilateral coordination.
  
• Developments resulting from the Asian financial crisis and the exchange of summit visits between American and Chinese political leaders point out the need to substantially improve Sino-Japanese relations, the weakest leg of the U.S.-PRC-Japan triangle, through more intensive consultations, active back-briefing, and transparency surrounding high-level bilateral meetings.
  
• Management of cross-Strait tensions continues to be a central policy concern among policymakers in Beijing. Although cross-Strait dialogue is the primary method through which such tensions might be alleviated, the Taiwan issue will continue to surface as a critical issue on Beijing's agenda with Tokyo and Washington, both in the context of clarifying and containing the future direction of the U.S.-Japan relationship and as part of the competition between Beijing and Taipei for international support and recognition.
  
• Political pressure resulting from slowing economic growth has constrained the ability of the Japanese and Chinese leaderships to respond to the key aspects of Asia's economic crisis. Just when decisive leadership was required in Tokyo, institutional and political constraints paralyzed a decisive policy response to the crisis despite increasing international pressure. Although the leadership in Beijing has been keenly attentive to the potential impact of the Asian financial crisis on the Chinese economy, the crisis has served primarily to narrow the window for effective reform of China's state-owned enterprises.
  
• The tensions over the Korean peninsula and the South Asian nuclear tests may provide opportunities for multilateral cooperation among the United States, China, and Japan, but the sensitivity of these issues may also limit the productiveness of coordinated action. Long-term objectives of the United States, China, and Japan regarding the Korean peninsula may conflict, while India's and Pakistan's nuclear tests explicitly challenge the international non-proliferation regime and the structure of influence within global organizations.

See the complete list of Institute reports. The views expressed in this report do not necessarily reflect those of the United States Institute of Peace, which does not advocate specific policies.