Ninth Climate Outlook Forum - Greater Horn of Africa (Eastern Africa)

Drought Monitoring Centre
Nairobi (DMCH) Forum Announcement
Ninth Climate Outlook Forum for the
Greater Horn of Africa (Eastern Africa)
Sub-Region-GHACOF9
February 18-22, 2002

VENUE: ELDORET, KENYA
DATE: 18-22, FEBRUARY, 2002

INTRODUCTION
Under the auspices of the USAID/WMO regional project "Applications of meteorology to the reduction of climate and weather related risks to food security, water resources and health for sustainable development in the Greater Horn of Africa sub-region", DMCN will be organizing a Climate Outlook Forum for the Greater Horn of Africa (GHACOF9). This forum will be the ninth to be held in the Eastern Africa sub-region and will take place in Eldoret, Kenya between 18th and 22nd February, 2002. The first component of the forum to be held between 18th and 19th February, will be devoted to Capacity Building of the users of climate and prediction information.

The theme of COF9 "Applications of climate extremes on livestock sector in the GHA". Most previous COFs have been addressing "Climate, Agriculture and Food Security", without the inclusion of the livestock sector, yet it is known that over 80% of the sub-region's livelihood is dependent on livestock. The current drought has wiped out over 90% of the livestock, especially in the marginal areas. It was, therefore, recommended that the COF9 addresses the livestock sector, and sensitize the sector on how climate prediction and applications could contribute to early warning of climate related livestock disasters within GHA.

The second component of the forum will bring together climate scientists from within and outside the region involved in seasonal climate prediction, the user community and decision-makers. Its objective is to develop a consensus climate outlook for the March, April and May rainfall season of 2002. It will specifically discuss the potential impacts of the projected outlooks on the livestock sector including other sectors such as regional food security, water resources, health and other socio-economic sectors. The forum will also review how the users applied the COF 8 consensus outlook for 2001 October, November and December rainfall season of the sub-region.

OBJECTIVES

The specific objectives of the forum will be to:

Review of the current state of the global and regional climate including the prospects of the evolution of El-Niño.
Review the rainfall performance in the sub-region since October, 2001.
Review the stages of implementation of the recommendations made during the previous forums.
Assess how the sub-region used the information and the associated forecasts, which have been issued in past fora.
Develop a consensus forecast for the March-May, 2002 rainfall period;
Assess the potential socio-economic impacts of the consensus forecast on the livestock sector and provide such information to governments, international, regional and non-governmental organizations;
Disseminate information generated at the forum to high-level decision-makers, the media and the general public;

PARTICIPANTS
Participants will include prediction experts from the National Meteorological/Hydrological Services (NMHSs) of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) and climate scientists from universities, research institutions, and regional and international organizations engaged in climate modeling and prediction for the sub-region. Directors of the NMHSs within the sub-region, namely Burundi, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda as well as focal points in the health sector. In addition, users of climate information and prediction products from diverse socio-economic disciplines including disaster preparedness and emergency management, transport, media, water resources, agriculture and others will be represented. Various regional and international Governmental and Non-Governmental organizations and the donor community will also be present.

WORKING LANGUAGE
English will be the working language for the forum.