FACT SHEET

The Post-Season Assessment Meeting of the Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum will be hosted by the South African Weather Bureau 12-15 May 1998 in Pilanesberg, South Africa, as a follow-up to the successful Pre Season and Mid-Season Outlook Meetings, which took place in Kadoma, Zimbabwe (8-12 September 1997) and Windhoek, Namibia (18-19 December 1997), respectively.

The Post-Season Assessment Meeting will assess the Consensus Outlooks made in Kadoma and Windhoek, both scientifically and from the point of view of the user community, focusing in on the value of these outlooks as a management tool in sectors impacted by climate variability. Participation by users of the Outlooks will stimulate an ongoing dialogue between the producers and the users of climate forecasts within the region by providing an opportunity for feed-back regarding Outlook content, format, lead-time, delivery, distribution, and other relevant issues. Emphasis at the Post-Season Assessment Meeting will be on the usefulness of the Outlooks to decision-makers within the region, and sessions will be devoted to measuring and maximizing Outlook value.

PARTICIPANTS:

In addition to the representatives from Meteorological Services in SADC (Southern Africa Development Community) countries, and climate scientists from universities, research institutes, and regional and international organizations engaged in regional modelling and prediction, the Post-Season Assessment Meeting of the Outlook Forum is open to interested parties who intend to participate actively in discussions of the value of climate forecasting and who are able to cover their own travel and subsistence expenses. All individuals wishing to attend the Outlook Forum must register by returning the attached registration form to Emsie Klopper at the South Africa Weather Bureau (Fax: +27-12-323-4518, or e-mail: klopper@cirrus.sawb.gov.za) no later than 6 April 1998.

SPONSORS:

European Network for Research in Global Change (ENRICH)

International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI)

Southern African Transport and Communications Commission (SATCC)

U.A. Agency for International Development (USAID)

U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

World Meteorological Organization (WMO)

BACKGROUND:

The first meeting of the Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum convened in Kadoma, Zimbabwe, 8-12 September 1997, to formulate consensus guidance for the 1997-98 rainfall season in southern Africa. Together, Meteorological Services from SADC countries and climate scientists from universities and international research institutes reviewed the state of the global climate system and its implications for southern Africa, taking into account the major El Niņo event on-going in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Recent El Niņo occurrences such as in 1982-83, 1991-92 and 1994-95 resulted in low rainfall across much of southern Africa south of 10 degrees South and disrupted climate patterns around the globe.

The Outlook produced at the Pre-Season Forum divided the 1997-98 season into two periods (October-December and December-March) and provided probability distributions to indicate the likelihood of below-, near- or above-normal rainfall for a series of sub-regions. This Outlook was updated at the Mid-Season meeting, hosted by the Namibia Meteorological Service 18-19 December 1997 in Windhoek, Namibia. As a follow-up to the successful Pre-Season Outlook Meeting, the focus of the Mid Season Forum was to assess the Pre-Season consensus guidance based on climatic conditions and user community feed-back, to adjust this guidance according to updated model results, and to work towards a consensus Outlook for the remainder of the rainy season.

The Mid-Season Outlook Forum was open to and enthusiastically attended by members of the user community. Close partnership and interaction with the user community has been a distinguishing feature of the Outlook Forum since its conception at the Workshop on Reducing Climate-Related Vulnerability in Southern Africa (October 1996, Victoria Falls, Zimbabwe). This initial model, designed together by the scientists, practitioners, and decision-makers who will be among the principal producers and users of climate forecasts in southern Africa, has been so successful that already it is being replicated in other regions of Africa, Asia, and the Americas. The consensus climate guidance produced at the Pre- and Mid-Season Meetings of the Outlook Forum are available on the internet at http://www.ogp.noaa.gov/enso/africa.html.  Users who desire additional guidance or interpretation of this Outlook should to contact their National Meteorological Service.