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HDGCR Principle Investigators Meeting
October 23- 25, 2002 on Seabrook Island, SC
Summaries of Breakout Sessions
Sixty people attended the HDGC PI meeting held October 23- 25, 2002 on Seabrook Island, SC. Following is a summary of key insights gained at the meeting and suggestions made by those in attendance for the future direction of this program.
Key Insights
The PIs and the other HDGC researchers who attended this conference believe that they have produced a new field with common objectives and shared goals. PIs expressed solidarity and feel that they "have made a difference along the way". They believe a paradigm shift has occurred in HDGC research. For example, five years ago, researchers concentrated on specific climate change consequences such as the impacts of sea level rise. Now, researchers focus on the improvement of climate forecast information dissemination and the betterment of the relationships between forecasters and decision makers for future planning and mitigation of disasters.
Overarching findings from their research show that:
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Many users lack experience with understanding and using climate forecast information. They often have local or indigenous systems of making forecasts. In some cases, these prepare them to use modern scientific forecasts at different spatial and temporal scales.
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Information needs vary by sector and location. For example, the PIs working in the water management field found that staffs in this sector require information across a range of scales (i.e., 7-day to 6-month forecasts). They would prefer this information in simple color maps. In the future, they will need a better understanding of institutional modeling, improved evapotranspiration tools, and snow pack forecasts.
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Long-term face-to-face relationships with users or representatives of users are key to the use and understanding of forecast information. This requires that forecasters and data disseminators go to state/local venues on a regular basis. In addition, user training is critical to climate forecast information distribution.
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Information is altered by the cultural system into which it is introduced. This is true of the cultural systems of forecast users and the cultural systems of forecast producers.
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Many scientists use surveys to elicit stakeholders' and/or decision makers' perceptions, needs, and preferences; however, it is essential that the surveys are written and administered by survey experts so as not to bias the results. For example, the context and placement of questions can lead to bias, as can the interpretation by non-qualified personnel. In addition, researchers need to add in-depth interviews and focus groups to strengthen the results of the survey.
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When approaching the difficult task of creating and using integrated models (e.g., crop models, with economic models, with decision making models), it is important to trace the uncertainties of scientific information.
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Internationally, the use of and capacity to benefit from forecasts may differ from those in the US. For example, in some contexts/situations within developing countries food security is a priority rather than profit maximization.
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In developed countries, well-capitalized systems could potentially endure years of "missed " forecasts. In contrast, in developing countries, some farmers may not be able to survive a year if they use a "missed" forecast in planning.
Recommendations for NOAA include stabilizing the configuration and appearance of the NOAA web site for CPC outlooks as frequent changes to site layout causes confusion. They also recommended that forecasters work with private weather and climate service providers as they often have their finger on the pulse of the needs of users.
Future Directions:
The PIs made a number of recommendations for future directions for NOAA/OGP HDGCR funding. Among their recommendations were to:
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Improve our understanding of climate variability in a societal context beyond forecasts. This would include analyzing how society copes with year-to-year variability, measuring adaptive capacity (specifically resilience and vulnerability), understanding the ethical and equity dimensions of disseminating scientific information, and developing a suite of response options and/or tools.
- Focus first on how people manage resources; avoid pushing seasonal forecasts. Using climate variability as a way of studying resource management could provide a better understanding of the broader issues of communicating information, decision making under uncertainty; and sustainable use of resources and adaptation to climate change (e.g., How do institutions respond to stresses in the system (i.e., growth demands) in the context of climate variability and change?).
- Include studies on the linkages to disaster mitigation (e.g., emergency planning at local levels).
- Forge better linkages between local and regional scales.
- Incorporate attention to local languages and cultures in the preparation of forecasts and other climate products. A good deal of misunderstanding of forecasts comes from poor translations form English and other major language groups into local languages.
- Proceedings for this meeting will be assembled in the next few weeks. For further information, please contact Nancy Beller-Simms, Program Manager, HDGC or Caitlin Simpson, Program Director, Health and Human Dimensions at 301-427-2089. You can also check our website for periodic updates.
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