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South East Asia November 1998 Update

The current El Niņo event, possibly the most significant climatic event of the century, brought into focus the urgent need to better understand this climate phenomenon and its impacts on different sectors of society. As the event developed, NOAA's Office of global Programs, working with the Asian Disaster Preparedness Center (ADPC), took the initiative to host an Asian Regional Meeting on El Niņo Related Crises. The event (February 1998, Bangkok) was sponsored by the United States office of Foreign Disaster Assistance (USAID/OFDA). The primary focus of the meeting was to discuss capability enhancement in forecasting and applications of El Niņo generated weather patterns, regionally and internationally, both in the short and long terms, as well as early warning, impact assessment, public education and information and contingency planning. It was preceded by a Climate Outlook Forum. The primary outcome of the meeting was to endorse establishment of a Climate Information System for the South East Asian Region to Enhance Decision Making and Reduce Disasters.

Participants focused on the importance of long-lead forecasts in alleviating social and economic costs related to climate variations, and the need for political and financial support to establish an integrated regional climate information system. The need for regional cooperation and its long-term benefits to the Asian community was also emphasized. Future activities include facilitation of a Regional Climate Forum; establishment of a Pilot Regional Information Clearing House at ADPC; and development of a long-term multi-institutional program on "Regional Capacity Building for Climate Forecasting and Applications."

These efforts are supported by ongoing pilot applications activities in the region, including:

• Training module on use of climate information for Asia Disaster managers
• Retrospective hindcasts of significant historical hydro-meteorological disasters
• Inventory of regional climate and application institutions
• Press kit and/or public information package
• Farm level decisions in NE Thailand dryland ice
• Impact of climate variability of rice production in the Asia-Pacific region
• Simulation analysis of seasonal forecast influence on rice yield (field scale) linking crop models with seasonal climate forecast models
• Decisions associated with climate variability relating to pest, disease and weed management
• Variability of precipitation in the Mekong River Basin in relation to SOI and its utility for application
• Annual and seasonal-to-interannual variability in precipitation in the Australasian region (1978-1998)
• Forecasting the risk of dengue fever epidemics in the Asia-Pacific region
• Risk assessment of 1998/99 mudslide vulnerability in Indonesia

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