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This page last updated:
March 03, 2004


Oil Spill Modeling

Modeling Program

Oil Spill Modeling Program

The MMS assesses oil-spill risks associated with offshore energy activities off the U.S. continental coast and Alaska calculating spill trajectories and contact probabilities. These analyses address the likelihood of spill occurrences, the transport and fate of any spilled oil, and the environmental impacts that might occur as a result of the spill. The MMS Oil-Spill Risk Analysis (OSRA) model combines the probability of spill occurrence with a statistical description of hypothetical oil-spill movement on the ocean surface.

Modeling results are used by MMS NEPA staff for environmental documents, other federal and state agencies for review of environmental impact statements, environmental assessments, endangered species consultations, and oil industry specialists preparing the oil spill response plans (OSRP).

Paths of hypothetical oil spills are based on hindcasts (history) of winds, ocean currents, and ice in Arctic waters, using the best available input environmental information. Output of the model include tables of probable contact and GIS (Geographic Information System) representations of these probabilities, with and without the probability of occurrence of one or more spills.

The MMS is committed to the continuous improvement of OSRA estimations and EIS analysis, and use the results of new field and modeling studies to fulfill that commitment. As offshore activity expands into deeper waters and new geographic areas, MMS oil-spill modeling will be applied to risk assessments and validated with environmental observations.

For information pertaining to operational safety, pollution prevention, oil spill response, and cleanup capabilities, visit our Technology Assessment and Research (TA&R) Program. The TA&R Program is a research element encompassed by the MMS Regulatory Program. It was established in the 1970's to ensure that industry operations on the Outer Continental Shelf incorporated the use of the Best Available and Safest Technologies (BAST) subsequently required through the 1978 OSCLA amendments.

bulletOSMP Mission and Vision

bulletOSRA Reports

bulletOSRA Spill Occurrence Rates

 
bulletOSMP Research Efforts

 
bulletMMS Modeling Research Papers and Presentations PDF File

bulletHelpful Affiliated Modeling Web Sites!

bulletOSMP Staff Directory



 

For more information, contact Walter Johnson.

Updated: 04/14/04