Drug Intelligence Brief

CHANGING DYNAMICS OF COCAINE PRODUCTION IN THE ANDEAN REGION
June 2002

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THE EXPLOSION IN COLOMBIA'S POTENTIAL COCAINE PRODUCTION

In recent years, the DEA has observed dramatic changes in the "geopolitics" of coca cultivation and cocaine production. These changing dynamics highlight the fact that Colombian cocaine trafficking organizations continue to dominate the international cocaine trade. Colombia has always been—and remains—the world’s number one producer of finished cocaine HCl. Colombia produces more than 80 percent of the global cocaine HCl supply, and perhaps 90 percent of the cocaine HCl reaching the United States.

As recently as 1995, however, Colombia only produced about 25 percent of the world’s cocaine base, the intermediate product used to make finished cocaine HCl.¹ Colombian traffickers were dependent on Peruvian and Bolivian sources for two-thirds of their cocaine base product. Each year, this amounts to hundreds of tons of cocaine base imported by aircraft from Peru and Bolivia.

Since 1995, however, net coca cultivation in Colombia has more than tripled, from 50,000 hectares in 1995 to 169,800 hectares in 2001. Stated differently, the physical land area under coca cultivation in Colombia in 2001 was three times the size of the Peru–Bolivia crop combined.

When expressed in terms of potential cocaine base "output," Colombia’s production has increased 217 percent, from 230 metric tons in 1995 to 730 metric tons in 2001.

Colombia accounted for 76 percent of the world’s cocaine base production in 2001. Accordingly, Colombian traffickers have become far less dependent on Peruvian or Bolivian cocaine base sources of supply than in the past.

2001 marked the ninth consecutive year that Colombia’s coca cultivation and production have increased. In spite of this steady upward trend in Colombia’s potential cocaine output, estimated cocaine production for the entire Andean Region had actually decreased by 17 percent from 1995 to 2000, from 930 metric tons to 768 metric tons.

COCAINE PRODUCTION TRENDS IN BOLIVIA AND PERU

From 1995 to 2000, Bolivia’s potential cocaine base production fell by 82 percent, from 240 metric tons to 43 metric tons. This decrease in Bolivian potential cocaine production was largely due to unprecedented coca eradication, enforcement operations targeting essential chemicals, and decreased demand from Colombian traffickers.

In like manner, Peru’s potential cocaine base production decreased by 68 percent, from 460 metric tons in 1995 to 145 metric tons in 2000. A combination of aggressive crop eradication procedures, a persistent coca fungus in some growing areas, Peru’s air interdiction program, and decreased demand from Colombian traffickers were key factors that led to this decline in potential cocaine base production.

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THE DYNAMICS OF ANDEAN REGION COCA CULTIVATION IN 2001

In 2001, potential cocaine base production for the entire Andean Region increased by 16 percent, from 805 metric tons in

2000 to 930 metric tons in 2001. Production in Bolivia dropped by 25 percent, from 80 metric tons to 60 metric tons, while Peru’s production only decreased by 3.4 percent, from 145 metric tons to 140 metric tons. On the other hand, production in Colombia, increased by 25 percent, from 580 metric tons to 730 metric tons. In short, the 150-metric-ton increase in Colombia dwarfed the combined 25-metric-ton decrease in Peru and Bolivia.

OUTLOOK FOR THE FUTURE

Coca eradication remains the centerpiece of Plan Colombia, the U.S. Government’s multifaceted US$1.3 billion assistance package for Colombia enacted in July 2000. In the event that the Colombian Government is able to expand and sustain coca eradication operations in central and northern Colombia—while sustaining pressure on southern Colombia—the expectation is that some of Colombia’s coca cultivation and cocaine processing would be driven into Ecuador and Venezuela. Colombian traffickers would also be expected to encourage expanded coca cultivation and cocaine production in Peru and Bolivia—two countries that collectively produced about two-thirds of the world’s cocaine base as recently as 1995.

Recent coca production trends and political developments in Bolivia and Peru that are unrelated to Plan Colombia are troubling. Reporting indicates that Bolivian coca farmers are replanting coca at an alarming rate. This replanting is not surprising, considering that coca leaf prices in Bolivia are at record highs. In addition, increased violence by coca farmers against government eradication forces in the Chapare and Yungas has slowed down the pace of eradication.

In 2001, the U.S. Government reported the first increase in Peru’s coca cultivation since 1995. Although growth in new coca was limited (some 3,400 hectares), it confirms other disturbing trends. Prices for Peruvian coca leaf have rebounded and some Peruvian coca farmers are replanting previously abandoned fields. If these trends are not reversed, the counterdrug successes achieved in Peru will be increasingly at risk.

¹Cocaine base converts into HCI on a 1:1 ratio. Accordingly, 1 kilogram of cocaine base is required to produce 1 kilogram of finished cocaine HCI.

DEA-02033