U.S. DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE ADVANCE FOR RELEASE AT 4:30 P.M. EST BJS THURSDAY, MARCH 6, 1997 202/633-3047 IF 1991 INCARCERATION RATES CONTINUE, ONE IN TWENTY U.S. RESIDENTS COULD BE IMPRISONED DURING THEIR LIFETIMES Substantial Disparities Between Men and Women And Among Racial Groups WASHINGTON, D.C. -- If 1991 incarceration rates were to remain constant, approximately one out of every 20 United States residents (5.1 percent) would be confined in a state or federal prison during his or her lifetime, according to estimates made by the Justice Department's Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS). Based on the report's assumptions, which do not reflect the actual experience of any group of residents, the lifetime chances of a person going to prison are higher for men (9.0 percent) than for women (1.1 percent) and higher for blacks (16.2 percent) and Hispanics (9.4 percent) than for whites (2.5 percent). An estimated 28.5 percent of black men, 16.0 percent of Hispanic men and 4.4 percent of white men can be expected to serve a state or federal prison term. The BJS report assumes that recent rates of crime, incarceration and death will not change in the future and applies them to a hypothetical population of newborn males and females over their lifetimes. The report utilizes standard techniques typically employed to forecast the likelihood of familiar life events, such as medical problems arising in someone's lifetime or a marriage ending in divorce. At the end of 1995, almost 1.1 million men and women were incarcerated in a federal or state prison. The study did not include the likelihood of being incarcerated in a local jail, juvenile facility or other type of facility or the chances of being arrested. Annually there are almost 30 times as many admissions to local jails as there are new court commitments to state and federal prisons. The special BJS report noted that the probability of a person committing a crime and being sentenced to prison for the first time declines steadily with age. In addition to estimating the lifetime chances of going to prison among newborns, the report provided projections of the likelihood of incarceration for persons of other ages. For example, among white males age 30 who have not previously served time in prison, an estimated 2.1 percent are expected to go to prison at some time before they die. Among those 35 years old, 1.5 percent will go to prison. Among those age 45, fewer than 1 percent will go to prison. At every age, men have a higher likelihood of going to prison than do women, and blacks and Hispanics are more likely than whites. The percent of men who will go to prison by age is as follows: Age White Men Black Men Hispanic Men Birth 4.4% 28.5% 16.0% 20 4.1 25.3 14.8 25 3.0 17.3 11.1 30 2.1 10.8 8.6 35 1.5 6.5 6.8 40 1.1 3.6 4.3 45 0.8 2.1 3.0 Though based on survey data collected in 1991, the most recent available data on first admissions to prison, the report noted that the lifetime chances of going to prison have remained stable since that time. Between 1991 and 1995, the rate of admission to prison remained almost unchanged: New court commitments to prison Year Number Rate per 100,000 adults 1991 337,478 179 1992 356,498 187 1993 341,722 177 1994 346,097 178 1995 361,464 184 About half of the new commitments in any year are persons admitted to prison for the first time in their lives. Single copies of the BJS special report, "Lifetime Likelihood of going to State or Federal Prison" (NCJ-160092), by BJS statisticians Thomas P. Bonczar and Allen J. Beck, may be obtained from the BJS fax-on-demand system by dialing 301/251-5550 or calling the BJS Clearinghouse number, 1-800/732-3277. Fax orders for mail delivery to 410/792-4358. The complete embargoed special report and news release is available on the Internet at: http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/preview/sneakpk.htm After the embargo time it will be available on BJS's home page address on the Internet at: http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/ After hours contact: Stu Smith at 301/983-9354 (END OF FILE)