Latest Seasonal Assessment - The drought outlook was updated on September 17 to indicate the limited improvement expected over parts of the Southwest from the remains of Hurricane Javier. Rainfall amounts ranging from 1 to 3 inches were forecast across much of Arizona during September 18-20, with lighter amounts extending northward into Utah and eastward into New Mexico. The tropical depression associated with Javier was forecast to track northward into Utah by September 20. Although the system threatens to bring local flooding to the Southwest, there should be minimal impact on the water supply situation, as reservoirs would need additional storms or the runoff from spring snowmelt to recover from a drought that has affected the region for 4-5 years or more. For the entire Outlook period, the water supply situation in drought-affected areas of the West is not expected to change significantly into early winter. However, periodic moisture will bring limited improvement in the West and the Plains by increasing soil moisture, reducing the fire threat, and benefiting smaller streams and ponds. There will be little improvement to the water supply situation in most of the West until the winter mountain snowpacks begin to accumulate in December. Recent El Niño development has led the Climate Prediction Center to forecast a weak tendency toward above-normal precipitation in the Southwest. Since the best odds for wetness occur toward mid to late winter and spring, the current drought outlook calls only for persisting to limited improvement through December. Elsewhere, limited drought improvement is expected from southwestern North Dakota southward into central South Dakota and central Nebraska into Kansas, while drought persists from western South Dakota into the Panhandle of Nebraska and into northeastern Wyoming. Recent hot, dry weather has reduced soil moisture from Kansas southward into Oklahoma, while short-term dryness has also become a concern in an area extending from Arkansas into parts of Louisiana. With indications that below-normal rainfall could persist well into fall from Arkansas northeastward into the Midwest, this area bears watching. The remains of Hurricane Ivan have ensured that there is scant chance for dryness developing east of the Mississippi River into much of the Southeast or Mid-Atlantic, but soil moisture could be a concern elsewhere in the middle and lower Mississippi Valley. Drought is not forecast to expand southward from Kansas due to the seasonal forecast indicating a tilt of the odds toward above-normal rainfall during October-December over the southern Plains. In Alaska, the shift to much cooler and damper weather has ended drought there, although large precipitation deficits continue. However, a lack of immediate impacts will preclude drought from returning to Alaska before next spring. In Hawaii, short-term dryness has developed on the Big Island. An El Niño often brings dry weather to the state, but it is unlikely that drought will develop by December.