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2.1 Previous Strategic Planning

In 1997, the National Science and Technology Council (NSTC) Committee on Transportation Research and Development—with members from DOT, DOE, EPA, NASA, and the Departments of Defense (DoD) and Commerce (DoC)—completed the Transportation Science and Technology Strategy, which offers a framework for meeting our national transportation goals of safety, security, energy efficiency, global competitiveness, environmental quality, and accessibility to transportation for all Americans. The Strategy identifies twelve strategic partnership initiatives, including one focused on next-generation motor vehicles and ships.

In April, 1999, the NSTC Subcommittee on Transportation Research and Development ² broadened the 1997 Strategy, incorporating an even greater role for the larger transportation community. Further development in close collaboration with State, local, and tribal government agencies; academic institutions; and industry led to the completion of the National Transportation Science and Technology Strategy, which identifies national goals and desired outcomes for the transportation system. The 1999 Strategy refines the partnerships identified in 1997, including the Partnership on Next-Generation Motor Vehicles and Ships, which was expanded into the Partnership on Next-Generation Transportation Vehicles. The vision of the partnership for Next-Generation Transportation Vehicles is a far more sustainable transportation system with fewer harmful environmental impacts and reduced dependence on fossil fuels. The goal is to develop internationally competitive, domestically produced transportation vehicles that achieve unprecedented gains in fuel efficiency and in both environmental and operational performance, including reduced greenhouse gas emissions.

2.2 Emissions and Energy Trends

Figure 1. U.S. Emissions of Greenhouse Gases (GHG), Nitrogen Oxides (NOx), and Fine Particulate Matter (PM) from Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicles

In considering medium- and heavy-duty vehicle R&D, three general trends are of particular interest. First, the U.S. has made significant progress toward the reduction of regional and urban air pollutants such as lead, tropospheric ozone, carbon monoxide (CO), and fine particulate matter (PM). Medium and heavy-duty vehicles, many of which rely on efficient diesel engines, are especially important as emitters of both fine PM and ozone-forming nitrogen oxides (NO_X). As shown in Figure 1, fine PM emissions from these vehicles have fallen dramatically since 1990 and NO_X emissions are falling gradually from a period of relative stability between 1980 and 1990. This reflects the regulation of both the quality of highway diesel fuel and the emission rates of engines used in medium- and heavy-duty highway vehicles. New standards for locomotives and marine vessels and forthcoming increases in the stringency of NO_X standards for heavy-duty highway vehicle engines should contribute to a continuation of these trends.

Figure 2. U.S. Energy Consumption by Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicles

Second, although the world will never run out ³ of oil, the price of petroleum in constant 1997 dollars is projected to increase from about $17 per barrel in 1995 to as much as $30 per barrel in 2020. ⁴ Further, petroleum supplies are already geographically concentrated—particularly in the Persian Gulf—and are projected to become even more so in the future. The U.S. spent $61 billion on petroleum imports in 1997, and is projected to spend between $100 and $158 billion (in 1997 dollars) on petroleum imports by 2020. Most of the underlying projected increase in consumption occurs in the transportation sector, which accounted for about 65 percent of U.S. petroleum use in 1997. That share is projected to grow to 69-72 percent by 2020. As shown in Figure 2, energy demand for medium- and heavy-duty vehicles, after dipping in the early 1980s, has resumed a steady upward trend and has more than doubled since 1970.

Figure 3. Energy Intensity of Automobiles and Transit Buses

Although this steady growth in energy consumption can be related to continued growth in travel and shipping, it also results from the fact that efficiency improvements over the last three decades have been modest for medium- and heavy-duty vehicles. As shown in Figure 3, during the same period in which the per-mile energy consumption of the average automobile fell by more than 35 percent, that of the average transit bus actually rose by more than 20 percent. As a result, and because of changes in ridership, transit buses in some areas of the country now use more energy per passenger-mile than automobiles. On the other hand, the energy intensity of freight transportation has improved considerably over the same period. Combination trucks now use roughly 20 percent less fuel per mile than in 1970. Accounting for changes in both vehicles and operations, domestic waterborne commerce and Class I freight railroads now consume about 24 percent and 47 percent less energy, respectively, per ton-mile. However, those improvements have been more than offset by continued growth in the freight sector. Absent further improvements in vehicular efficiency, energy consumption by medium- and heavy-duty vehicles should continue to grow steadily with future increases in population and gross domestic product.

Third, in 1992, the U.S. ratified the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which called upon developed countries to voluntarily reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to 1990 levels by the year 2000. The U.S., like virtually every other developed country, will not achieve this goal. Despite significant increases in automobile efficiency between 1970 and 1990, further emission reductions in the transportation sector have been particularly elusive. As shown in Figure 1, GHG emissions from medium- and heavy-duty vehicles have increased by nearly 20 percent since 1990. Without efficiency improvements and/or shifts to less carbon-intensive fuels, these emissions, like energy consumption, should continue to grow steadily.

2.3 Research Needs

Based on past experience, it is reasonable to expect that engine and vehicle manufacturers and fuel producers will respond to increasingly stringent NO_X and PM emission standards and petroleum prices through incremental improvements in engines, vehicles, and fuel quality. Examples could include improved turbochargers, fuel injection systems, and catalytic converters, as well as reformulated fuels with better combustion characteristics. However, as in the past, continued growth in travel and shipping could offset incremental reductions in the emission rates of essentially conventional medium- and heavy-duty technologies and fuels. Further, such incremental improvements are not likely to reduce petroleum consumption or GHG emissions and, because of well-known engineering tradeoffs, could even lead to further increases in some cases.

If real progress is to be made toward simultaneously reducing urban air pollution, petroleum consumption, and greenhouse gas emissions, the development of incremental improvements in conventional technologies and fuels needs to be supplemented with higher-risk research focused on new concepts and technologies. Examples of higher-risk technologies include fuel cells, electric drivetrains, batteries for storing motive power, and hybrid electric drivetrains and associated components.

Although these technologies show tremendous potential to reduce petroleum consumption and GHG emissions, they are generally considered risky because they are currently expensive and a clear transitional pathway forward from today’s market does not yet exist. The use of public resources to promote advancement in these areas is appropriate because, despite the underlying public goals, this perception of risk means that significant industry investment is unlikely, particularly in the medium- and heavy-duty vehicle area, where the industry is made up of many manufacturers, unlike the automobile industry. Because it is impossible to predict which technologies will ultimately succeed, it is also appropriate for the public sector to partner with private industry in developing and demonstrating technologies that—based on prevailing knowledge—appear likely to generate both monetary profit and public benefits.

In addition to R&D aimed directly at reducing the emissions and energy consumption of existing vehicle/fuel systems, R&D is also needed in several related areas. Two prominent examples are information and communications technology and high-speed ground transportation. Also, depending upon local circumstances, new technology high-speed ferry systems may offer attractive service, energy, and environmental benefits for urban areas situated on waterways.

When applied to the transportation sector, information and communications technology can increase capacity and, depending upon where and how they are applied, potentially improve systemwide safety, performance, emissions and efficiency. In the freight sector, for example, these technologies can reduce congestion, idling, and associated fuel consumption and emissions at border crossings. If and when heavy-duty vehicles become equipped with on-board electronic systems capable of diagnosing emissions-related malfunctions, information and communications technologies might enable efficient and reliable remote inspection without actual periodic or roadside testing. Indeed, DOT’s ongoing ITS Commercial Vehicle Operations (CVO) program includes the development and use in vehicles of these technologies in order to make safety verification and other administrative processes more efficient. Considerable public resources have already been devoted to developing information and communications technologies for the transportation sector, and it is appropriate that future resources be focused, in part, on potential opportunities to use these technologies to directly improve system efficiency and emissions.

In some U.S. markets, congestion poses a serious constraint to travel by automobile and/or airplane. Depending upon regional conditions, HSGT—a family of technologies ranging from upgraded existing railroads to magnetically levitated vehicles—could offer an important alternative that not only saves time but also reduces emissions and energy consumption relative to other options. Public resources are needed to improve the performance and ensure the safety of HSGT.

2.4 Technical Goals

The general goals of DOT’s medium- and heavy-duty vehicle R&D are to improve vehicle fuel efficiency, reduce vehicle emissions, foster economic competitiveness in advanced transportation vehicle technologies, enhance public acceptance of advanced vehicles, fuels, and infrastructure. Such improvements are to be in addition to improvements in safety, which remains the Department’s top priority. ⁵ Based on unique challenges and opportunities specific to several important types of vehicles, DOT has identified "stretch" goals for this program in two focused technical areas:

The first technical goal is to develop production prototype ⁶ vehicle/fuel systems—including vehicle technology, energy carriers (e.g., gaseous and liquid fuels, electricity), and infrastructure—that increase fuel economy and reduce NO_X, PM, and GHG emissions relative to the base vehicle/fuel system according to the schedule and targets identified in Table 1, and that offer similar utility and performance at similar life-cycle ⁷ cost and profitability without increasing net emissions of other air pollutants.

Table 1. Goals for Medium-and Heavy-Duty Vehicle R&D

The second technical goal is to develop a production prototype system by 2005 in which emission-related malfunctions in medium- and heavy-duty vehicles—as well as other information useful to, for example, fleet managers and vehicle manufacturers–are reported to remote locations capable of tracking this and related vehicle-specific information, and which is projected to be cost-effective relative to other pollution control strategies.

Goals for DOT’s HSGT activities are identified in other DOT budget and planning documents.

2.5 Recent R&D Activities

DOT’s medium- and heavy-duty vehicle research complements DOE’s heavy vehicle research focus primarily on diesel engine powertrains and fuel systems for these vehicles. Key DOE research areas include diesel engine materials, new diesel engines for light trucks and sport-utility vehicles, efficient and flexibly fueled engines for heavy trucks, combustion and exhaust aftertreatment, and storage tanks for compressed gases such as natural gas and hydrogen.

This plan builds upon recent DOT R&D activities supporting goals identified above. Key current and planned activities include the AVP, FTA’s Equipment and Infrastructure R&D, and FRA’s HSGT program. Related activities include a Marine Fuel Cell Initiative and the Intelligent Transportation Systems/Intelligent Vehicle Initiative.

Advanced Vehicle Technologies Program (AVP)

The AVP, which is managed by RSPA for all DOT modes, combines the best in transportation technologies and innovative program elements to produce new vehicles, components, and infrastructure for medium- and heavy-duty transportation needs. The program draws upon roughly five hundred companies in order to achieve significant breadth in expertise and capability. The goal is to improve energy efficiency and U.S. competitiveness while reducing emissions and transportation dependence on petroleum. Authorized in 1998 under the Transportation Equity Act for the 21st century, this program is managed by DOT in partnership with other federal agencies (e.g., DoD, DOE), private companies, research institutions, and state and local governments.

The AVP is a bottom-up, public-private partnership program that has demonstrated proven success in the deployment of new and innovative electric- and hybrid-electric technologies, and their entry into the commercial transportation industry. It seeks an annually balanced portfolio of projects across various technologies and degrees of risk and potential benefit. This approach provides significant opportunity to capitalize on emerging developments that may not lend themselves to a "top-down" planning approach with narrow objectives and schedules. This is particularly important given the nature of the medium- and heavy-duty vehicle industry. The AVP is designed to complement the activities of the Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles (PNGV) and other vehicle-related programs by addressing needs not currently met in these federal initiatives.

DOT also manages two major activities that focus on two specific subcategories of medium-and heavy-duty vehicles—transit buses and passenger trains, and is involved in R&D activities related to marine vessel emissions and energy consumption.

FTA’s Equipment and Infrastructure R&D

Through this R&D managed by FTA, transit has an opportunity to lead the nation in the research, development, and deployment of advanced, efficient and environmentally friendly technologies for all vehicles. In partnership with transit operators, the bus and rail equipment industries and other Federal agencies with similar outcome goals, FTA is pursuing advancements in bus propulsion systems, enhancements in bus testing, adaptation of radio-based communication and control systems, and other innovative technologies through research, tests, deployment, standards development, technical assistance and training. Specific research areas include bus technology, advanced technology buses, fuel cell transit buses, alternative fuels, hybrid-electric and electric vehicles, and rail equipment and systems.

High-Speed Ground Transportation (HSGT)

FRA manages HSGT research, which is focused on a family of technologies ranging from upgraded existing railroads to magnetically levitated vehicles. HSGT is a passenger transportation option that can best link cities lying about 100-500 miles apart. Common in Europe and Japan, HSGT in the United States already exists in the Northeast Corridor between New York and Washington, D.C. and will soon serve travelers between New York and Boston. DOT’s HSGT program is intended to directly support the goals of passenger service and HSGT safety—not emissions and energy consumption. HSGT is mentioned in this plan because it could have important emissions and energy benefits, depending upon how highway, rail, and air traffic respond to HSGT’s market performance, and because some of the technologies under development for HSGT (e.g., turbine propulsion, flywheels) may have the potential to improve performance in more than one type of vehicle.

Marine Fuel Cell Initiative

MARAD and CG have been concentrating on R&D that affects the maritime industry. MARAD is leading a partnership with CG and DOE to develop and demonstrate the application of natural gas aboard ships. MARAD is also investigating the potential installation of a marine fuel cell laboratory at the United States Merchant Marine Academy. CG has partnered with the Office of Navy Research in the development of large-scale marine fuel cells for heavy duty vessels. In addition, the Research and Special Programs Administration (RSPA) has sponsored a Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) Program project for an infrared marine engine emission analyzer and another on the reformation of marine fuels for fuel cell utilization.

Intelligent Transportation Systems/Intelligent Vehicle Initiative

The national ITS Program managed by the FHWA JPO aims to use advanced technology—including the latest in computers, electronics, communications and safety systems—to improve the efficiency and safety of our Nation’s surface transportation system. The Commercial Vehicle Operations (CVO) portion of the ITS program aims to streamline the commercial vehicle safety regulatory system and enhance its effectiveness in the trucking industry. They apply both to truck fleet operators and state regulators. Among the elements of the current ITS program for commercial vehicles are electronic clearance, onboard safety monitoring systems, automated administrative processes, and hazardous materials incident response. The Intelligent Vehicle Initiative (IVI) portion of the ITS program aims to accelerate the development and commercialization of in-vehicle safety systems such as collision avoidance and driver condition monitoring. Although the IVI addresses all vehicle types, it is specifically addressing the unique safety needs of medium- and heavy-duty vehicles, which are commonly used in commercial, transit, and highway maintenance operations.

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