CB-04-197FOR WIRE TRANSMISSION 8:30 A.M. ET, Friday, November 12, 2004
The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for October, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $342.1 billion, an increase of 0.2 percent (±0.8%) from the previous month and up 7.6 percent (±1.0%) from October 2003. Total sales for the August through October 2004 period were up 6.7 percent (±0.7%) from the same period a year ago. The August to September 2004 percent change was revised from +1.5 percent (±0.7%) to +1.6 percent (±0.3%).
Retail trade sales were up 0.1 percent (±0.8%) from September 2004 and were 7.6 percent (±1.0%) above last year. Gasoline station sales were up 23.8 percent (±1.2%) from October 2003 and sales of nonstore retailers were up 14.1 percent (±2.2%) from last year.
The advance estimates are based on a subsample of the Census Bureau's full retail and food services sample. A stratified random sampling method is used to select approximately 5,000 retail and food services firms whose sales are then weighted and benchmarked to represent the complete universe of over three million retail and food services firms. Responding firms account for approximately 65% of the MARTS dollar volume estimate. For an explanation of the measures of sampling variability included in this report, please see the Reliability of Estimates section on the last page of this publication.
Percent Change in Retail and Food Services Sales
(Estimates adjusted for seasonal variation, holiday, and trading-day differences, but not for price changes)
Address inquiries concerning this report to Scott Scheleur, Service Sector Statistics Division, U.S. Census Bureau, Washington, D.C. 20233. Telephone: (301) 763-2713.
This report is available the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's online Economic Bulletin Board. For information call (202) 482-1986.
TABLE 1A. ESTIMATED MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--October 2004
(Total sales estimates are shown in millions of dollars and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.) Data adjusted2 for seasonal variations, holiday, trading-day differences, and price changes. (In Millions of dollars) 2004 2004 2004 2003 2003 NAICS1 Kind of Business Oct3 Sep Aug Code adv. prel. final Oct(r) Sep(r) Retail & food services, total.................... 342,115 341,428 336,059 317,850 317,017 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts)............ 264,093 261,665 259,583 243,449 242,191 Retail ....................................... 308,981 308,606 303,549 287,081 287,172 GAFO4............................................ (*) 85,494 84,726 81,430 81,614 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... 78,022 79,763 76,476 74,401 74,826 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................. 70,944 72,776 69,499 67,497 67,888 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. 8,749 8,719 8,734 8,441 8,396 443 Electronics & appliance stores................... 8,539 8,545 8,453 8,162 8,102 44311,13 Appl., T.V. & camera........................... (*) 6,137 6,076 5,816 5,739 44312 Computer & software stores...................... (*) 2,408 2,377 2,346 2,363 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers 30,846 31,199 30,874 28,166 27,516 4441 Building mat. & supplies dealers................ (*) 27,711 27,503 25,003 24,354 445 Food & beverage stores........................... 44,594 44,411 44,126 42,607 42,614 4451 Grocery stores.................................. 39,931 39,822 39,550 38,206 38,262 4453 Beer, wine & liquor stores...................... (*) 2,823 2,810 2,768 2,757 446 Health & personal care stores.................... 17,142 17,059 17,026 16,418 16,359 44611 Pharmacies & drug stores........................ (*) 14,531 14,517 14,035 14,001 447 Gasoline stations................................ 27,524 26,382 26,260 22,226 22,743 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... 16,157 15,686 15,531 15,140 15,143 44811 Men's clothing stores........................... (*) 958 962 883 895 44812 Women's clothing stores......................... (*) 3,038 2,944 2,858 2,900 4482 Shoe stores..................................... (*) 1,914 1,852 1,929 1,930 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores....... 6,868 6,871 6,906 6,623 6,666 452 General merchandise stores....................... 42,712 42,340 41,813 39,781 40,025 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... 17,860 17,771 17,603 17,765 17,973 4521 Department stores (incl. L.D.)5................. (*) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) 4529 Other general merchandise stores................ (*) 24,569 24,210 22,016 22,052 45291 Warehouse clubs & superstores.................. (*) 21,062 20,766 18,637 18,694 45299 All other gen. merchandise stores.............. (*) 3,507 3,444 3,379 3,358 453 Miscellaneous store retailers.................... 9,290 9,245 9,124 8,868 8,729 454 Nonstore retailers............................... 18,538 18,386 18,226 16,248 16,053 4541 Electronic shopping & mail-order houses......... (*) 11,428 11,447 10,392 10,328 722 Food services & drinking places.................. 33,134 32,822 32,510 30,769 29,845 (*) Advance estimates are not available for this kind of business. (NA) Not available (a) Advance estimate (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (1) For a full description of the NAICS codes used in this table, see http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/naics.html (2) Estimates are concurrently adjusted for seasonal variation and for holiday and trading day differences, but not for price changes. Concurrent seasonal adjustment uses all available unadjusted estimates as input to the X-12 ARIMA program. The factors derived from the program are used in calculating all seasonally adjusted estimates shown in this table. Year-to-date seasonally adjusted sales estimates are not tabulated. Adjustment factors and explanatory material can be found on the Internet at http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html (3) Advance estimates are based on early reports obtained from a small sample of firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) sample. All other estimates are from the MRTS sample. (4) GAFO represents firms which specialize in department store types of merchandise and is comprised of furniture & home furnishings (442), electronics & appliances (443), clothing & accessories (448), sporting goods, hobby, book, and music (451), general merchandise (452), office supply, stationery, and gift stores(4532). (5) Estimates include data for leased departments operated within department stores. Data for this line are not included in broader kind-of-business totals. Note: Table 3 provides estimated measures of sampling variability. Individuals who use estimates in this report to create new estimates should cite the Census Bureau as the source of only the original estimates. Additional information on confidentiality protection, sampling error, nonsampling error, sample design, and definitions may be found at http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html
TABLE 1B. ESTIMATED MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--October 2004
Data not adjusted for seasonal variations, holiday, trading-day differences, and price changes. (In Millions of dollars and Annual Percent Change) 10 month total % Chg. 2004 2004 2004 2003 2003 NAICS1 Kind of Business 2004 from Oct2 Sep Aug Code 2003 adv. prel. final Oct Sep Retail & food services, total.................... 3,304,700 7.6 335,760 332,154 345,361 317,990 306,836 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts)............ 2,516,499 8.8 262,747 251,995 262,337 244,789 231,710 Retail ....................................... 2,979,109 7.4 301,996 300,120 311,388 286,913 277,707 GAFO3........................................... (*) (*) (*) 78,492 84,558 78,786 74,079 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... 788,201 4.1 73,013 80,159 83,024 73,201 75,126 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................. 717,245 4.1 65,907 73,067 75,545 65,945 68,160 44111 New car dealers................................ (*) (*) (*) 61,962 63,265 55,646 57,831 4413 Auto parts, acc. & tire stores.................. (*) (*) (*) 7,092 7,479 7,256 6,966 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. 84,129 6.9 8,679 8,492 8,917 8,534 8,186 4421 Furniture stores................................ (*) (*) (*) 4,592 4,853 4,463 4,305 4422 Home furnishings stores......................... (*) (*) (*) 3,900 4,064 4,071 3,881 443 Electronics & appliance stores.................. 78,452 8.7 7,900 7,938 8,404 7,634 7,498 44311,13 Appl., T.V. & camera........................... (*) (*) (*) 5,499 6,003 5,293 5,142 44312 Computer & software stores...................... (*) (*) (*) 2,439 2,401 2,341 2,356 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers 308,921 14.4 31,023 31,703 32,357 29,717 28,039 4441 Building mat. & supplies dealers................ (*) (*) (*) 28,986 29,566 27,003 25,645 445 Food & beverage stores........................... 435,405 4.4 44,543 43,601 43,966 42,657 41,093 4451 Grocery stores.................................. 391,760 3.9 39,931 39,225 39,471 38,321 37,038 4453 Beer, wine & liquor stores...................... (*) (*) (*) 2,741 2,745 2,785 2,597 446 Health & personal care stores.................... 167,053 6.1 16,868 16,377 16,788 16,549 15,721 44611 Pharmacies & drug stores........................ (*) (*) (*) 14,022 14,169 14,203 13,497 447 Gasoline stations................................ 259,977 15.4 28,267 26,567 27,836 23,071 22,879 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... 144,481 7.0 15,657 14,187 15,531 14,577 13,544 44811 Men's clothing stores........................... (*) (*) (*) 863 977 898 797 44812 Women's clothing stores......................... (*) (*) (*) 2,862 2,729 2,889 2,720 44814 Family clothing stores.......................... (*) (*) (*) 5,134 5,704 5,340 4,846 4482 Shoe stores..................................... (*) (*) (*) 1,757 2,230 1,815 1,754 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores....... 61,889 3.2 6,119 6,397 7,272 5,908 6,226 452 General merchandise stores....................... 391,968 7.3 41,873 38,230 40,871 38,876 35,454 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... 162,309 -0.2 17,326 15,918 17,093 17,241 15,619 4521 Department stores (incl. L.D.)4................. (*) (*) (*) 16,093 17,270 17,445 15,812 4529 Other general merchandise stores................ (*) (*) (*) 22,312 23,778 21,635 19,835 45291 Warehouse clubs & superstores.................. (*) (*) (*) 19,145 20,517 18,283 16,843 45299 All other gen. merchandise stores.............. (*) (*) (*) 3,167 3,261 3,352 2,992 453 Miscellaneous store retailers.................... 89,538 5.4 9,163 9,049 9,393 8,990 8,517 454 Nonstore retailers............................... 169,095 12.0 18,891 17,420 17,029 17,199 15,424 4541 Electronic shopping & mail-order houses......... (*) (*) (*) 10,994 11,115 10,860 10,111 722 Food services & drinking places.................. 325,591 9.9 33,764 32,034 33,973 31,077 29,129 (*) Advance estimates are not available from the subsample panel for these business classifications. (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (1) For a full description of the NAICS codes used in this table, see http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/naics.html (2) Advance estimates are based on early reports obtained from a small sample of firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) sample. All other estimates are from the MRTS sample. (3) GAFO represents firms which specialize in department store types of merchandise and is comprised of furniture & home furnishings (442), electronics & appliances (443), clothing & accessories (448), sporting goods, hobby, book, and music (451), general merchandise (452), office supply, stationery, and gift stores (4532). (4) Estimates include data for leased departments operated within department stores. Data for this line are not included in broader kind-of-business totals. Note: Table 3 provides estimated measures of sampling variabIlity. Individuals who use estimates in this report to create new estimates should cite the Census Bureau as the source of only the original estimates. Additional information on confidentiality protection, sampling error, nonsampling error, sample design, and definitions may be found at http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html
TABLE 2. ESTIMATED CHANGE IN SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--October 2004
(Estimates are shown as percents and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.) Data adjusted for seasonal variations, holiday, trading-day differences, and price changes. Oct Sep 2004 2004 adv. prel. from-- from-- NAICS Kind of Business Sep Oct Aug Sep Code 2004 2003 2004 2003 Prel. Final Final Final Retail & food Services, total.................... +0.2 +7.6 +1.6 +7.7 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts ).......... +0.9 +8.5 +0.8 +8.0 Retail .................................. +0.1 +7.6 +1.7 +7.5 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... -2.2 +4.9 +4.3 +6.6 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers............... -2.5 +5.1 +4.7 +7.2 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. +0.3 +3.6 -0.2 +3.8 443 Electronics & appliance stores................... -0.1 +4.6 +1.1 +5.5 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers -1.1 +9.5 +1.1 +13.4 445 Food & beverage stores........................... +0.4 +4.7 +0.6 +4.2 4451 Grocery stores.................................. +0.3 +4.5 +0.7 +4.1 446 Health & personal care stores.................... +0.5 +4.4 +0.2 +4.3 447 Gasoline stations................................ +4.3 +23.8 +0.5 +16.0 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... +3.0 +6.7 +1.0 +3.6 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores....... 0.0 +3.7 -0.5 +3.1 452 General merchandise stores....................... +0.9 +7.4 +1.3 +5.8 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... +0.5 +0.5 +1.0 -1.1 453 Miscellaneous stores retailers................... +0.5 +4.8 +1.3 +5.9 454 Nonstore retailers............................... +0.8 +14.1 +0.9 +14.5 722 Food services & drinking places.................. +1.0 +7.7 +1.0 +10.0 (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (*) Estimates shown in this table are derived from adjusted estimates provided in Table 1 of this report.
Data not adjusted for seasonal variations, holiday, trading-day differences, and price changes. Oct Sep 2004 2004 adv. prel. from-- from-- NAICS Kind of Business Sep Oct Aug Sep Code 2004 2003 2004 2003 Prel. Final Final Final Retail & food Services, total.................... +1.1 +5.6 -3.8 +8.3 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts ).......... +4.3 +7.3 -3.9 +8.8 Retail .................................. +0.6 +5.3 -3.6 +8.1 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... -8.9 -0.3 -3.5 +6.7 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers............... -9.8 -0.1 -3.3 +7.2 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. +2.2 +1.7 -4.8 +3.7 443 Electronics & appliance stores................... -0.5 +3.5 -5.5 +5.9 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers -2.1 +4.4 -2.0 +13.1 445 Food & beverage stores........................... +2.2 +4.4 -0.8 +6.1 4451 Grocery stores.................................. +1.8 +4.2 -0.6 +5.9 446 Health & personal care stores.................... +3.0 +1.9 -2.4 +4.2 447 Gasoline stations................................ +6.4 +22.5 -4.6 +16.1 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... +10.4 +7.4 -8.7 +4.7 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores....... -4.3 +3.6 -12.0 +2.7 452 General merchandise stores....................... +9.5 +7.7 -6.5 +7.8 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... +8.8 +0.5 -6.9 +1.9 453 Miscellaneous stores retailers................... +1.3 +1.9 -3.7 +6.2 454 Nonstore retailers............................... +8.4 +9.8 +2.3 +12.9 722 Food services & drinking places.................. +5.4 +8.6 -5.7 +10.0 (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (*) Estimates shown in this table are derived from adjusted estimates provided in Table 1 of this report. Note: Table 3 provides estimated measures of sampling variabIlity. Individuals who use estimates in this report to create new estimates should cite the Census Bureau as the source of only the original estimates. Additional information on confidentiality protection, sampling error, nonsampling error, sample design, and definitions may be found at http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html SOURCE: Advance Monthly Sales for Retail Trade and Food Services--OCTOBER 2004 (Press Release available without charge from Public Information Office, U.S. Census Bureau Washington, D.C. 20233). Survey methodology and measures of sampling variability are documented in the Advance Press Release. Questions concerning this report should be directed to Mr. Scott Scheleur (301) 763-2713.
The U.S. Census Bureau conducts the Advance Monthly Retail Trade and Food Services Survey (MARTS) to provide an early estimate of monthly sales by kind of business for retail and food service firms located in the United States. Each month, questionnaires are mailed to a probability sample of approximately 5,000 employer firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS). Firms responding to MARTS account for approximately 65% of the total national sales estimate. Advance sales estimates are computed using a link relative estimator. The change in sales from the previous months is estimated using only units that have reported data for both the current and previous months. There is no imputation or adjustment for nonrespondents in MARTS. The total sales estimate is derived by multiplying this ratio by the preliminary sales estimate for the previous month (derived from the larger MRTS sample). Detailed industry estimates are summed to derive total estimates at broad industry levels. The monthly estimates are adjusted using annual survey estimates and for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences. Additional information on MARTS and MRTS can be found on the Census Bureau website at: http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html. Reliability of Estimates: Because the estimates presented in this report are based on a sample survey, they contain sampling error and nonsampling error. Sampling error is the difference between the estimate and the result that would be obtained from a complete enumeration of the sampling frame conducted under the same survey conditions. This error occurs because only a subset of the entire sampling frame is measured in a sample survey. Standard errors and coefficients of variation (CV), as given in Table 3 of this report, are estimated measures of sampling variation. The margin of sampling error, as used on page 1, gives a range about the estimate which is 90-percent confidence interval. If, for example, the percent change estimate is +1.2 percent and its estimated standard error is 0.9 percent, then the margin of sampling error is ±1.65 x 0.9 percent or ±1.5 percent, and the 90 percent confidence interval is -0.3 percent to +2.7 percent. If the interval contains 0, then one does not have sufficient evidence to conclude at the 90 percent confidence level that the estimated change is different from zero. For a monthly total, the median estimated coefficient of variation is given. The resulting confidence interval is the estimated value ±1.65 x CV x (the estimated monthly total). The Census Bureau recommends that individuals using estimates in this report incorporate this information into their analyses, as sampling error could affect the conclusions drawn from the estimates. Nonsampling error encompasses all other factors that contribute to the total error of a sample survey estimate. This type of error can occur because of nonresponse, insufficient coverage of the universe of retail businesses, mistakes in the recording and coding of data, and other errors of collection, response, coverage, or processing.
2nd Quarter 2004 Retail E-Commerce Sales
Source: U. S. Census Bureau
Service Sector Statistics Division
