|
July 2000 Volume 2 Number
3
Source Attribution of a
Forensic DNA Profile
Table
1
Random Match Probability Thresholds
for Source Attribution at Various Population Sizes and Confidence
Levels
|
Sample Size (N) |
Confidence Levels |
|
0.90 |
0.95 |
0.99 |
0.999 |
|
2 |
5.1 × 10-2 |
2.5 × 10-2 |
5.0 × 10-3 |
5.0 × 10-4 |
|
3 |
3.5 × 10-2 |
1.7 × 10-2 |
3.3 × 10-3 |
3.3 × 10-4 |
|
4 |
2.6 × 10-2 |
1.3 × 10-2 |
2.5 × 10-3 |
2.5 × 10-4 |
|
5 |
2.1 × 10-2 |
1.0 × 10-2 |
2.0 × 10-3 |
2.0 × 10-4 |
|
6 |
1.7 × 10-2 |
8.5 × 10-3 |
1.7 × 10-3 |
1.7 × 10-4 |
|
7 |
1.5 × 10-2 |
7.3 × 10-3 |
1.4 × 10-3 |
1.4 × 10-4 |
|
8 |
1.3 × 10-2 |
6.4 × 10-3 |
1.3 × 10-3 |
1.3 × 10-4 |
|
9 |
1.2 × 10-2 |
5.7 × 10-3 |
1.1 × 10-3 |
1.1 × 10-4 |
|
10 |
1.1 × 10-2 |
5.1 × 10-3 |
1.0 × 10-3 |
1.0 × 10-4 |
|
25 |
4.2 × 10-3 |
2.1 × 10-3 |
4.0 × 10-4 |
4.0 × 10-5 |
|
50 |
2.1 × 10-3 |
1.0 × 10-3 |
2.0 × 10-4 |
2.0 × 10-5 |
|
100 |
1.1 × 10-3 |
5.1 × 10-4 |
1.0 × 10-4 |
1.0 × 10-5 |
|
1 × 103 |
1.1 × 10-4 |
5.1 × 10-5 |
1.0 × 10-5 |
1.0 × 10-6 |
|
1 × 105 |
1.1 × 10-6 |
5.1 × 10-7 |
1.0 × 10-7 |
1.0 × 10-8 |
|
1 × 106 |
1.1 × 10-7 |
5.1 × 10-8 |
1.0 × 10-8 |
1.0 × 10-9 |
|
1 × 107 |
1.1 × 10-8 |
5.1 × 10-9 |
1.0 × 10-9 |
1.0 × 10-10 |
|
5 × 107 |
2.1 × 10-9 |
1.0 × 10-9 |
2.0 × 10-10 |
2.0 × 10-11 |
|
2.6 × 108 |
4.1 × 10-10 |
2.0 × 10-10 |
3.9 × 10-11 |
3.9 × 10-12 |
|
1 × 109 |
1.1 × 10-10 |
5.1 × 10-11 |
1.0 × 10-11 |
1.0 × 10-12 |
|
5 × 109 |
2.1 × 10-11 |
1.0 × 10-11 |
2.0 × 10-12 |
2.0 × 10-13 |
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FORENSIC SCIENCE COMMUNICATIONS JULY 2000 VOLUME
2 NUMBER 3 |
