Winter Distillate Outlook
Distillate Prices Increasing With Crude Oil
Factors Driving Prices & Forecast
First Factor Impacting Distillate Prices: Crude Oil Prices
High Crude Prices Go With Low Inventories
Second Price Component: Spread Impacted by Distillate Supply/Demand Balance
Distillate Stocks are Low – Especially on the East Coast
Distillate Stocks Are Important Part of East Coast Winter Supply
Winter Demand Impacted by Weather
Warm Winters Held Heating Oil Demand Down While Diesel Grew
Distillate Demand Strong in December 1999
Dec 1999 & Jan 2000 Production Fell, But Rebounded with Price
Higher Yields Can Be Achieved
Unusual Net Imports May Only Be Available at a High Price
Distillate Stocks Expected to Remain Low
Distillate and Crude Oil Price .Forecasts
Consumer Winter Heating Oil Costs
Conclusion
Email: jshore@eia.doe.gov
Home Page: www.eia.doe.gov
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