SPC AC 231006
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0506 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2004
   
   VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   JET PATTERN EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE LWR 48 ON
   MONDAY AS UPPER SYSTEM NOW CROSSING THE ALEUTIANS DEEPENS UPON
   ENTERING MEAN TROUGH POSITION OVER THE NE PACIFIC.  DOWNSTREAM RIDGE
   OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BUILD NWD ACROSS THE SERN U.S. AS A
   SERIES OF RELATIVELY WEAK DISTURBANCES LIFT GENERALLY NEWD WITHIN
   DEVELOPING SW FLOW OVER THE RCKYS AND PLNS.
   
   ...SRN PLNS TO OZARKS...
   WARM FRONTOGENESIS EXPECTED TO BE IN PROGRESS OVER THE SRN PLNS BY
   THE LATTER PART OF DAY TWO PERIOD SHOULD CONTINUE ON MONDAY AS UPPER
   FLOW CONTINUES TO BACK DOWNSTREAM FROM DEEPENING TROUGH ALONG THE W
   CST.  THE NCEP ENSEMBLE FORECASTS SHOW SOME DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY
   REGARDING THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT...BUT MORE OR LESS
   AGREE WITH THE ECMWF IN DEPICTING THE BOUNDARY REACHING SRN KS/MO BY
   12Z TUESDAY.
   
   SUSTAINED WARM ADVECTION AND SEASONABLY RICH MOISTURE INFLOW /850 MB
   DEWPOINTS AOA 12C/ SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC ELEVATED
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM THE RED RIVER AREA N/NEWD INTO THE
   OZARKS.  THIS MAY BE ESPECIALLY TRUE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WHEN
   REGION WILL BE WITHIN ENTRANCE REGION OF JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH
   NRN STREAM IMPULSE CROSSING THE UPR MS VLY.  MODERATE /35-40 KT/
   SWLY FLOW AT MID LEVELS AND AMPLE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY MAY SUPPORT
   A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS AND A LIMITED THREAT FOR HAIL.  BUT GIVEN
   RELATIVELY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /MINUS 8 TO MINUS 10 C AT 500
   MB/ AND ABSENCE OF AN IDENTIFIABLE SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE...A
   CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK OF SEVERE APPEARS UNWARRANTED ATTM.
   
   ..CORFIDI.. 10/23/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1100Z