PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
830 AM EDT THU OCT 21 2004
MONTHLY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR NOV 2004
SSTS NEAR HAWAII ARE NOW AROUND ONE AND HALF DEGREE C ABOVE
NORMAL AND ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE A MORE DIRECT IMPACT ON THE
MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR NOVEMBER. FOR 2004 THROUGH
THE END OF SEPTEMBER - RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE:
AT LIHUE AIRPORT 27.81 INCHES (107 PERCENT OF NORMAL) -
HONOLULU AIRPORT 23.93 INCHES (218 PERCENT OF NORMAL) -
KAHULUI AIRPORT 24.71 INCHES (196 PERCENT OF NORMAL) AND HILO
AIRPORT 101.33 INCHES (112 PERCENT OF NORMAL). CCA - OCN - SMT
TOOLS AS WELL AS THE MAJORITY OF NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE WARM
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR ALL STATIONS IN NOVEMBER 2004.
CCA AND NCEP COUPLED MODEL INDICATE AN ENHANCED PROBABILITY OF
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATIONFOR FOR HILO.
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
HILO A40 74.2 0.4 B40 8.8 12.9 15.8
KAHULUI A40 76.1 0.6 EC 1.0 2.0 2.3
HONOLULU A40 77.4 0.7 EC 0.6 1.0 1.5
LIHUE A40 75.8 0.5 EC 2.3 2.9 3.8
SEASONAL OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR NOV-DEC-JAN 2004 TO NOV-DEC-JAN 2005
REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC
SST AND DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. POSITIVE
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES GREATER THAN +0.5C PERSISTED IN
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC - AND EXPANDED EASTWARD
INTO THE EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC DURING SEPTEMBER 2004. THE
INCREASE AND EASTWARD EXPANSION OF THE AREA OF ANOMALOUS WARMTH IN
THE CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC DURING JULY-SEPTEMBER INDICATE THE
EARLY STAGES OF A WARM EPISODE. THROUGH THE END OF SEPTEMBER
CONDITIONS WERE NOT YET INDICATIVE OF A BASIN-WIDE EL NINO -
PARTICULARLY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF BELOW-AVERAGE SSTS IN THE FAR
EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC BETWEEN 95W AND THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST.
BASED ON THE RECENT EVOLUTION OF OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS
AND ON A MAJORITY OF THE STATISTICAL AND COUPLED MODEL FORECASTS -
IT SEEMS MOST LIKELY THAT SST ANOMALIES IN THE NInO 3.4 REGION WILL
REMAIN POSITIVE - AT OR ABOVE +0.5C, THROUGH EARLY 2005.
CCA - OCN - SMT AND NCEP COUPLED MODEL INDICATE A TENDENCY TOWARDS WARMTH
FROM NDJ 2004 TO JFM 2005. CCA - OCN AND NCEP COUPLED MODEL INDICATE AN
ENHANCED PROBABILITY OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR DJF AND JFM 2005.
. . . . . . . .
HILO
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
NDJ 2004 A40 72.8 0.4 EC 25.5 32.9 41.7
DJF 2005 A40 72.0 0.4 B40 20.1 27.2 35.9
JFM 2005 EC 71.8 0.4 B40 23.9 30.9 39.4
FMA 2005 EC 72.1 0.4 EC 29.5 35.9 43.1
MAM 2005 EC 72.8 0.5 EC 28.3 34.9 42.6
AMJ 2005 EC 73.9 0.4 EC 22.0 26.8 32.2
MJJ 2005 EC 75.0 0.4 EC 19.1 23.1 27.8
JJA 2005 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 19.5 24.2 29.6
JAS 2005 EC 76.3 0.4 EC 22.2 27.1 32.7
ASO 2005 EC 76.2 0.4 EC 23.4 27.0 31.0
SON 2005 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 25.8 31.7 38.4
OND 2005 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.1 33.1 41.3
NDJ 2005 EC 72.8 0.4 EC 25.5 32.9 41.7
KAHULUI
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
NDJ 2004 A40 73.8 0.5 EC 5.7 7.8 10.4
DJF 2005 A40 72.5 0.5 B40 6.8 9.0 11.7
JFM 2005 EC 72.4 0.5 B40 6.0 8.1 10.6
FMA 2005 EC 73.2 0.5 EC 4.3 6.0 8.1
MAM 2005 EC 74.4 0.6 EC 2.9 4.2 5.8
AMJ 2005 EC 75.8 0.6 EC 1.0 1.8 3.1
MJJ 2005 EC 77.3 0.6 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5
JJA 2005 EC 78.6 0.5 EC 0.8 1.1 1.3
JAS 2005 EC 79.1 0.5 EC 0.9 1.2 1.5
ASO 2005 EC 78.9 0.5 EC 1.3 1.8 2.5
SON 2005 EC 77.8 0.5 EC 2.2 3.1 4.3
OND 2005 EC 75.9 0.5 EC 4.2 5.7 7.6
NDJ 2005 EC 73.8 0.5 EC 5.7 7.8 10.4
HONOLULU
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
NDJ 2004 A40 75.0 0.5 EC 4.1 6.1 8.7
DJF 2005 A40 73.5 0.4 B40 5.0 6.9 9.1
JFM 2005 EC 73.5 0.4 B40 4.1 5.8 8.0
FMA 2005 EC 74.5 0.4 EC 3.4 4.6 6.1
MAM 2005 EC 76.0 0.4 EC 2.4 3.2 4.3
AMJ 2005 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 1.2 1.8 2.6
MJJ 2005 EC 79.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 2.0
JJA 2005 EC 80.7 0.4 EC 0.8 1.2 1.6
JAS 2005 EC 81.2 0.4 EC 1.1 1.5 2.0
ASO 2005 EC 81.0 0.5 EC 1.7 2.6 3.8
SON 2005 EC 79.6 0.5 EC 2.7 4.0 5.9
OND 2005 EC 77.3 0.5 EC 4.5 6.2 8.4
NDJ 2005 EC 75.0 0.5 EC 4.1 6.1 8.7
LIHUE
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
NDJ 2004 A40 73.6 0.3 EC 9.8 12.5 15.8
DJF 2005 A40 72.4 0.4 B40 8.6 11.4 14.7
JFM 2005 EC 72.4 0.4 B40 8.0 10.8 14.1
FMA 2005 EC 73.1 0.4 EC 7.5 9.6 12.0
MAM 2005 EC 74.4 0.4 EC 7.3 9.2 11.4
AMJ 2005 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 5.3 7.0 9.0
MJJ 2005 EC 77.5 0.4 EC 4.6 6.2 8.0
JJA 2005 EC 78.8 0.3 EC 4.6 5.6 6.6
JAS 2005 EC 79.3 0.3 EC 5.1 6.2 7.4
ASO 2005 EC 79.0 0.3 EC 6.3 8.0 10.0
SON 2005 EC 77.7 0.3 EC 9.1 10.9 12.9
OND 2005 EC 75.6 0.3 EC 10.7 13.3 16.2
NDJ 2005 EC 73.6 0.3 EC 9.8 12.5 15.8
FORECASTER: LUKE HE
NOTE - ON SEPTEMBER 18 2003...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)
MADE A CHANGE TO PROBABILITIES EXPRESSED FOR THE ABOVE
NORMAL...NEAR NORMAL...AND BELOW NORMAL CATEGORIES IN ONE-MONTH
AND THREE-MONTH OUTLOOKS. CPC WILL NO LONGER EXPRESS PROBABILITIES
AS ANOMALIES FROM 33 PERCENT. INSTEAD WE USE THE ACTUAL PROBABILITES
FOR THE CATEGORIES. PLEASE SEE THE FOLLOWING LINK FOR MORE DETAILS:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/service_change_ll.html
NOTE - EC (EQUAL CHANCES) HAS REPLACED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES)
AT THOSE LOCATIONS WHERE THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN.
CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL
INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE
SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS
THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NORMAL - OR BELOW
NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE - A37 MEANS A 37% HIGHER THAN
NORMAL CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE
CLASS - B36 MEANS A 36% HIGHER THAN NORMAL PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE
OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N35 MEANS A 35% HIGHER
THAN NORMAL PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE
NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED THE PROBABILITY OF THE MOST
LIKELY CATEGORY CANNOT BE PREDICTED.
NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF
THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND
SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF
OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT
MONTH ON THURSDAY NOV 18 2004
$$
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