Cattle cycle
The cattle cycle refers to increases and decreases in cattle herd size over time. The cattle cycle is usually 8-12 years in duration, the longest of all meat animals. The last cattle cycle lasted 12 years and the present cycle is in its 14th year, with 2 more years of decline likely. The cattle cycle is determined by the combined effects of cattle prices and the time needed to breed, birth, and raise cattle to market weight.

Given the dry conditions that have persisted since 1998, retention of enough heifers to turn the cycle is unlikely to begin until forage conditions improve and heifers are retained. The first real opportunity for meaningful change will come with heifers born in 2004. These heifers were born in late winter-early spring 2004 and would be weaned in the fall, bred in late spring-early summer 2005, and calve 9 months later. These additional heifers and calves could result in an expansion to be first reported in the January 1, 2007, cattle inventory report. The National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) provides information on cattle numbers in semi-annual inventory reports.

Cow-calf operations
These operations are located throughout the United States, typically on land not suited or needed for crop production. Cow-calf operations are dependent upon range and pasture forage conditions, which are in turn dependent upon variations in the average level of rainfall and temperature for the area. Beef cows harvest forage from grasslands to maintain themselves and raise a calf with very little, if any, grain input. The cow is maintained on pasture year round, as is the calf until it is weaned. If additional forage is available at weaning, some calves may be retained for additional grazing and growth until the following spring when they are sold. The average beef cow herd is 40 head, but operations with 100 or more beef cows comprise 9 percent of all beef operations and 51 percent of the beef cow inventory. Operations with 40 or fewer head are largely part of multi-enterprises, or are supplemental to off-farm employment.

Cattle feedlots
Cattle feeding is concentrated in the Great Plains, but is also important in parts of the Corn Belt, Southwest, and Pacific Northwest. Cattle feedlots produce high-quality beef, grade Select or higher, by feeding grain and other concentrates for about 140 days. Depending on weight at placement, feeding conditions, and desired finish, the feeding period can be from 90 to as long as 300 days. Average gain is 2.5-4 pounds per day on about 6 pounds of dry-weight feed per pound of gain. While most of a calf's nutrient inputs until it is weaned are from grass, feedlot rations are generally 70 to 90 percent grain and protein concentrates.

Feedlots with less than 1,000 head of capacity comprise the vast majority of U.S. feedlots but market a relatively small share of fed cattle. In contrast, lots with 1,000 head or more of capacity comprise less than 5 percent of total feedlots but market 80-90 percent of fed cattle. Feedlots with 32,000 head or more of capacity market around 40 percent of fed cattle. The industry continues to shift toward a small number of very large specialized feedlots, which are increasingly vertically integrated with the cow-calf and processing sectors to produce high-quality fed beef. NASS provides monthly Cattle on Feed reports.

for more information, contact: Ronald Gustafson
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page updated: July 7, 2004