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Research Project: Technologies for Management of Arid Rangelands

Location: Range Management Research

Title: Strategies for Ecological Extrapolation

Authors
item Peters, Debra - deb
item Urban, Dean - DUKE UNIVERSITY
item Gardner, Robert - UNIVERSITY OF MARYLAND
item Breshears, David - LOS ALAMOS NATL LAB
item Herrick, Jeffrey - jeff

Submitted to: Oikos
Publication Acceptance Date: February 24, 2004
Publication Date: September 1, 2004
Citation: Peters, D.C., Urban, D.L., Gardner, R.H., Breshears, D.D., Herrick, J.E. 2004. Strategies For Ecological Extrapolation. Oikos. 106(3):627-636.

Interpretive Summary: In this paper, we develop a synthetic, problem-solving framework for extrapolating information from fine to broad scales that is applicable to a broad range of ecological problems. The framework includes three classes of approaches that differ in their complexity and sources of error. We consider a range of ecological issues requiring complex approaches (i.e., nonlinear processes, thresholds, positive feedbacks, neighborhood processes) and identify options for dealing with these issues. Our operational framework of model selection serves as a practical and objective approach to the problem of ecological prediction across a range of spatial and temporal scales. Thus, this framework should be of interest to all ecologists and range scientists concerned with the problem of prediction.

Technical Abstract: Extrapolation of information collected at fine scales to broader scales is an increasingly important issue in ecology as the recognition of spatial connections within and among different levels of organization expands. In addition, our ability to represent complex behavior in ecological systems has improved with readily available instrumentation and software that allows detailed sampling and analysis and the ease with which geospatial data can be used to support large spatial simulation models or extensive data-based inventories and assessments. However, there is a tradeoff between simple approaches having errors associated with excluding processes and more complex approaches that are plagued by high uncertainty due to increased estimation and measurement error. In this paper, we develop a synthetic, problem-solving framework for extrapolating information from fine to broad scales that is applicable to a wide range of ecological problems. The framework includes three classes of approaches that differ in their complexity and sources of error: nonspatial, spatially implicit, and spatially explicit. We consider a range of ecological issues requiring complex approaches (i.e., nonlinear processes, thresholds, positive feedbacks, neighborhood processes) and identify options for dealing with these issues. Our operational framework of model selection serves as a practical and objective approach to the problem of ecological prediction across a range of spatial and temporal scales. Thus, this framework should be of interest to all ecologists concerned with the problem of prediction.

 
Project Team
Peters, Debra - Deb
Anderson, Dean
Barrow, Jerry
Havstad, Kris
Snyder, Keirith
Tartowski, Sandy
Bestelmeyer, Brandon
Rango, Albert
Estell, Richard - Rick
Frederickson, Eddie
Herrick, Jeffrey - Jeff

Publications

Related National Programs
  Rangeland, Pasture, and Forages (205)

Related Projects
   Transition Models for the Chihuahuan Desert in New Mexico
   Calibration, Testing and Implementation of An Ecosystem Monitoring Protocol for Military Lands (Phase 3)
   Sustainable Disturbance Levels for Military Training on Gypsic Soils
   Arid Rangeland Management
   Guidelines for Sampling and Interpreting Dynamic Soil Properties and Soil Functions
   Indicators of Rangeland Condition: Patch to Landscape Scales
   Study: Impact of Military Training on Desert Soils
   Methods for Using Remotely Sensed Data with Public Land Health Standard Assessments
   Sustainable Disturbance Levels for Military Training in the Southwestern United States
   Enhanced Monitoring and Assessment Protocols for Ground Defense Training and Noxious Weed Control
   Protocols for Development of An Ecological Site Description Manual
   Ecosystem Monitoring and Development of Monitoring Tools for the Fort Bliss Military Reservation (Phase Iii)

 
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