NOAA U.S. WINTER OUTLOOK UPDATE
For precipitation, NOAA's Outlook calls for drier-than-average conditions in the Pacific Northwest and Ohio Valley and wetter-than-average conditions over parts of the South. In Hawaii, temperatures are expected to be above average with precipitation below average. Elsewhere, there are equal chances of above, below and normal temperatures.
"El Niño wintertime impacts over the United States vary considerably depending on the character of the warming in the tropical Pacific," said Vernon Kousky, NOAA's lead El Niño/Southern Oscillation forecaster. "While we are carefully monitoring this current El Niño episode, we are expecting other climate patterns to play an equally important role in this winter's weather." NOAA scientists say the leading climate patterns expected to impact this winter's weather are long-term climate trends and features such as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific/North American pattern (PNA), which influence the jet stream and the track storms take across the eastern Pacific and North America. In addition, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) can affect winter weather in the Northeast by altering the jet stream over the North Atlantic and adjacent areas. “These climate patterns are the physical basis for this season's winter outlook and updates like the one presented today,” said Wayne Higgins, principal climate scientist at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center. NOAA is dedicated to enhancing economic security and national safety through the prediction and research of weather and climate-related events and providing environmental stewardship of the nation’s coastal and marine resources. NOAA is part of the U.S. Department of Commerce. Relevant Web Sites NOAA Climate Prediction Center NOAA
Drought Information Center ENSO
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