FXUS61 KBOX 241528 AAA AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 1125 AM EDT SUN OCT 24 2004 .DISCUSSION... NEAR TERM...PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON LOOKS GOOD. CONTINUED THE CHANCE OF DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE EASTERN ZONES. ALSO...CONTINUED THE CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST OVERALL. PLEASE SEE BELOW FOR A MORE COMPLETE DISCUSSION. MARINE...PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR POSSIBLE COASTAL SPLASHOVER AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDES TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY MINOR COASTAL FLOODING APPEARS TO BE TONIGHT...BUT GIVEN SEA STATE COULD BE PROLONGED INTO MONDAY MORNING/S HIGH TIDE. ANY COASTAL FLOODING IS MARGINAL AT BEST...BUT GIVEN FORECASTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDE AND FORECASTED STORM SURGE...THE STORM TIDE SHOULD APPROACH NEAR FLOOD STAGE FOR EAST COAST AREAS THEREFORE THOUGHT IT PRUDENT TO AT LEAST HIGHLIGHT COASTAL FLOOD POTENTIAL. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)... LOW CLOUDS ARE LOCKED IN ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING...AND ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH TONIGHT AS MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED BENEATH A STRONG INVERSION. SCATTERED SHOWERS WHICH WERE SHOWING UP ON RADAR EARLIER HAVE DIMINISHED...BUT PLAYING PERSISTENCE WE EXPECT MORE TO POP UP THIS MORNING AND AFFECT EASTERN MA AND RI. GFS HAS DONE A BETTER JOB SO FAR THAN ETA IN PICKING UP THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION...SO WE WILL TREND POPS MORE TOWARD IT AND HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOW CHANCE POPS IN EASTERN ZONES THROUGH THIS EVENING. SYSTEM FINALLY BEGINS TO PULL AWAY MON WHICH MEANS CLOUDINESS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE FROM W TO E...EXCEPT AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS WHERE CLEARING PROBABLY WON'T OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 00Z TUE. .LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)... LATEST MODELS CONTINUE THE TRENDS SET BY THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. OUR SPLIT FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS BREAKS DOWN MIDWEEK...TRANSITIONING TO A STRONG RIDGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA SHOULD DOMINATE OUR WEATHER INTO THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SENDING A WARM FRONT OUR WAY AS WELL. THE UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD BE GONE BY TUESDAY. THE MEX GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY OK FOR MIN TEMPERATURES...BUT FELT THEY WERE TOO LOW FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. I RAISED TEMPERATURES AT LEAST 5 DEGREES THURSDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND +7C EXPECTED. && .AVIATION... VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT WITH BASES AOA 4KFT...BUT AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEAR IMMEDIATE COASTAL TERMINALS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RI BUT SHOULD NOT IMPACT VISIBILITY. CLEARING SHOULD SLOWLY TAKE PLACE FROM W TO E MON. && .MARINE... GALE WARNINGS REMAIN POSTED ON OUTER SE WATERS FROM MONTAUK POINT TO NANTUCKET AND PROVINCETOWN WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ELSEWHERE. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY MON. SEAS REMAIN VERY HIGH DUE TO COMBINATION OF WIND WAVES AND E SWELL...AS HIGH AS 20 FT AT NANTUCKET SHOALS BUOY AND 24 FT AT GEORGES BANK BUOY! SEAS WILL TAKE AWHILE TO COME BACK DOWN AS SWELL COMPONENT PERSISTS FOR SEVERAL DAYS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND. SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK AS SWELLS DIMINISH FROM THE STRONG STORM OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...GALE WARNING MONTAUK POINT TO NANTUCKET AND PROVINCETOWN. ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINDER OF COASTAL WATERS. && $$ NEAR TERM...KAB/TLM SHORT TERM...JWD LONG TERM...BELK