FXUS62 KTAE 261933 CCA

AFDTAE



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL

255 PM EDT TUE OCT 26 2004



.SYNOPSIS...UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER CNTRL GOMEX PER GOES WATER 

VAPOR IMAGES. UPPER IMPULSES ROUNDING TOP OF RIDGE FROM THE

SRN PLAINS TO MIDWEST PRODUCING SCATTERED CONVECTION. CLOSER TO

HOME...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ORIENTED NE-SW ACROSS THE

TRI-STATE AREA IS PROVIDING A LIGHT NELY WIND FOR MOST AREAS, EXCEPT 

NEAR THE IMMEDIATE PANHANDLE COAST WHERE WINDS WERE ONSHORE.



&&



.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

UPPER RIDGE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE ERN CONUS AS THE WRN 

CONUS TROUGH DEEPENS/DIGS SWD. THIS WILL SERVE TO DEFLECT MOST OF 

THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY WELL TO THE NORTH AND WEST. HOWEVER, 

SUCCESSIVE GFS RUNS DEVELOP A H5 VORT MAX INVOF NRN AR/WRN TN EARLY 

THURSDAY, THEN MOVE IT TOWARD GA/SC WITHIN 24 HOURS. IT DOES DEVELOP 

SOME QPF AS FAR SOUTH AS OUR NRN CWFA THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT, ALONG 

W/ CHANCE POPS. THE ETA IS LESS AGGRESSIVE W/ THIS FEATURE. WILL 

LEAN TOWARD ETA AND THROW IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR AL/GA ZONES.

STATE LINEA LINE. WILL CARRY SILENT POPS FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. 

TEMPS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO. WILL FOLLOW A BLEND 

OF MAV/MET TEMP GUIDANCE.



.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE 

WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NRN CONUS. BY MONDAY...A TROUGH DEEPENS OVER 

THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES AND ADVANCES EWD TO THE MS VALLEY ON 

TUESDAY. THE NEXT BONAFIDE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE TUESDAY, 

WITH CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS. TEMPS BEGIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THEN COOL 

TO CLIMO ON TUESDAY.



&&



.MARINE...LIGHT WINDS/LOW SEAS DOMINATE THE PERIOD. AN OFFSHORE WIND 

WILL CONTINUE THRU FRIDAY, THEN BECOME ONSHORE THIS WEEKEND AS

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDES EAST OF THE WATERS.



&&



.FIRE WEATHER...NO REQUIREMENTS. RH VALUES EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE  

CRITICAL DURATIONS.



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...



TLH 61 83 62 83/ 00 00 05 10

PFN 66 82 66 82/ 00 00 05 10

DHN 63 82 64 81/ 00 00 10 20 

ABY 59 82 61 81/ 00 00 10 20 

VLD 59 82 60 82/ 00 00 05 10

CTY 59 83 61 83/ 00 00 05 10



&&



.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

GA...NONE.

FL...NONE.



&&



$$



MAJ