FXUS63 KMKX 241852

AFDMKX



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI

230 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2004



.DISCUSSION...FCST FOCUS ON PCPN CHCS BEGINNING TUE EVENING...

PERSISTING IN SOME FASHION INTO THE WEEKEND.



VRY WEAK SFC RDG IN PLACE TONIGHT WITH SIMILARLY WEAK SFC TROF FROM

NW MN TO NEB SLOWLY APPROACHING.  CLEAR SKIES TO REMAIN OVERNIGHT AS

TROF IS DRY WITH CLOUDS CONFINED RIGHT ALONG IT. COULD SEE SOME

PATCHY FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS AND SWAMPS...



SFC TROF MOVES THROUGH DRY ON MONDAY WITH A FEW CLOUDS EXPECTED.

TEMPS STILL SEASONABLY MILD.



FOCUS SHIFTS TO CHANGES FOR MID WEEK AND BEYOND. UPR RIDGE BUILDS

EARLY IN THE WEEK AND SHIFTS ITS AXIS EAST OF THE REGION BY

WEDNESDAY.  TROPICAL PLUME RETURNS IN DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH

CHANCE FOR RAIN RETURNING BY TUESDAY EVENING AS FIRST WAVE OF WARM

AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT HITS. H8 WMFNT INTO SRN WI BY WED

MORNING.  ETA/GFS DIFFER ON PLACEMENT/STRENGTH OF THE FOCUS

MECHANISMS FOR THE WEEK AHEAD...SUCH AS THE H8 FNT OR EVOLUTION OF

WHAT LOOKS TO BE A COMPLICATED UPR LEVEL JET STRUCTURE. SOUNDINGS

SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME ELEVATED CAPES SO WILL INTRO MORE

THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO

ABOUT 1.5 INCHES...PRETTY HIGH FOR THE SEASON. GIVEN THE

PERSISTENT...MOIST PATTERN FROM MID WEEK ON...TIMING OF EJECTED

ENERGY IMPOSSIBLE TO PEG SO WILL CONTINUE CHCY WX THRU THAT PERIOD.

WITH THE SW FLOW...TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE PRETTY MILD FOR THE SEASON.

THE MAIN UPPER LOW TO TRACK THROUGH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.



&&



.MKX...NONE.



$$

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