FXUS66 KSGX 262032

AFDSGX



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA

230 PM PDT TUE OCT 26 2004



.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG GULF OF ALASKA STORM WILL BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY

RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND

WEDNESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS COULD ACCOMPANY THIS STORM AS COLDER UNSTABLE

AIR ALOFT MOVES IN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FLASH FLOOD...WINTER STORM AND

HIGH WIND WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT IN ADDITION TO A MARINE WEATHER

STATEMENT. SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY. DRIER WEATHER WILL

FOLLOW THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.



&&



.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...

SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO

COUNTIES.



.SHORT TERM...THERE WERE ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS W OF THE MOUNTAINS

TODAY. THE 12Z NKX SOUNDING HAD ABOUT A 5000 FT DEEP LOW LEVEL MOIST

LAYER WITH MODERATELY STRONG WSW WINDS ALOFT. ONSHORE GRADIENTS AND

TREND...ESPECIALLY TO THE NE WITH ABOUT 10 MB SAN-TPH. 



A STRONG STORM WITH LOTS OF COLD AIR ALOFT NEAR THE CENTER WILL

CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY DOWN THE COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE COLD

FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LOW SHOULD PROGRESS S RAPIDLY AND

THEN SLOW AS IT SWINGS INTO THE SRN CA BIGHT. STRONG SW FLOW AHEAD OF

THE FRONT WITH DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE AN EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCER...

ESPECIALLY FOR THE SW FACING MOUNTAINS SLOPES. COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL

BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND FUNNELS WED. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL

START OUT HI IN THE RELATIVELY WARM SW FLOW AND THEN EVENTUALLY LOWER

TO NEAR 5000 FT WED NIGHT. MOST OF THE HEAVY PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF BY

THE TIME THE SNOW LEVEL LOWERS BUT THERE COULD STILL BE LOCAL TOTAL

ACCUMULATIONS TO NEAR A FOOT AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. STRONG GUSTY

WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS STORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND

UPPER DESERTS. THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE BUT TAPER OFF THURSDAY. THE

RAIN WILL END BY LATE THU AND DRIER COOL N FLOW WILL DEVELOP FRI.

RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THIS STORM SHOULD RANGE FROM 1-2 INCHES

COAST...2-4 INCHES INLAND...3 TO 6 INCHES ON THE SW FACING MOUNTAINS

SLOPES WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS TO NEAR 8 INCHES...1 INCH IN THE NRN DESERTS

AND LESS THAN 1/2 INCH IN THE SRN DESERTS. THERE IS STILL SOME

UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS STORM. FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR

ALL BUT THE SRN DESERTS TONIGHT THROUGH 2 PM THU. WINTER STORM WARNING

FOR THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS TONIGHT THROUGH WED INITIALLY FOR WIND AND

THEN EVENTUALLY FOR SNOW. WIND ADVISORIES AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. 





.LONG RANGE...PERIODS OF OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING GENERALLY DRY

WEATHER. HOWEVER...THE FLOW WILL TURN BRIEFLY ONSHORE SUN. 



&&



.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...



FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MOST OF SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA EXCEPT THE

SOUTHERN DESERTS FROM 900 PM TONIGHT UNTIL 200 PM THURSDAY...SEE

LAXFFASGX.



HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOR THE MOUNTAINS

BELOW 5000 FT FROM 900 PM TONIGHT UNTIL 200 PM WEDNESDAY...SEE

LAXNPWSGX.



WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 5000 FT FROM 900 PM TONIGHT

TUESDAY UNTIL 200 PM THURSDAY...SEE LAXWSWSGX.



MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY

MORNINGS...SEE LAXMWSSGX.



HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR ALL OF EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA

THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...SEE LAXHWOSGX.



&&



$$



ATKIN