WTNT44 KNHC 101436

TCDAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER   8

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

11 AM EDT SUN OCT 10 2004



SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE BROAD AND POORLY-DEFINED

CENTER IS INLAND...AND THAT THE SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW

TROPICAL STORM FORCE.  THEREFORE THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS

DISCONTINUED.  THE PRIMARY CONCERN FROM MATTHEW IS LOCALLY HEAVY

RAINFALL.



THE CIRCULATION IS ELONGATED FROM WEST TO EAST...MAKING THE CENTER

SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO TRACK.  INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE

GENERALLY NORTHWARD...010/9.  MATTHEW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE

MOVING ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE

SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING. 

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT TO THE EAST OF THE MODEL

CONSENSUS.



THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY PACKAGE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE

CENTER.  FUTURE PUBLIC ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT4 AND

UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT34 KWNH. 



FORECASTER PASCH

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INITIAL      10/1500Z 29.9N  90.8W    30 KT...INLAND

 12HR VT     11/0000Z 31.4N  90.4W    30 KT...INLAND

 24HR VT     11/1200Z 33.4N  90.4W    25 KT...INLAND

 36HR VT     12/0000Z 34.9N  90.7W    20 KT...INLAND

 48HR VT     12/1200Z 36.0N  91.0W    20 KT...INLAND

 72HR VT     13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

 

$$