WTPZ43 KNHC 191442

TCDEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER  36

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

8 AM PDT SUN SEP 19 2004

 

JAVIER MADE LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING

SOUTH OF SAN IGNACIO. THE GFS FROM YESTERDAY HAD THE RIGHT IDEA..

KEEPING THE SYSTEM'S MOTION SLOW UNTIL LANDFALL AND ALLOWING IT TO

WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION. THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW-LEVEL

CIRCULATION OF JAVIER IS FILLED WITH COLD-AIR STRATOCUMULUS AND HAS

NOT PRODUCED ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION FOR OVER 24 HOURS.

THEREFORE IT HAS DISSIPATED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THERE COULD BE A

BRIEF RESURGENCE OF CONVECTION OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF

CALIFORNIA ALONG WITH SOME TOPOGRAPHICALLY-FORCED CONVECTION OVER

BAJA CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER... WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY SHEAR AND PLENTY

OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR...REGENERATION IS UNLIKELY.



THE REMNANT LOW OF JAVIER IS LIKELY TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT

ABOUT 15 MPH.  THE MAIN DANGER WITH THE SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE INLAND

FLOODING...SPREADING FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH NORTHWEST MEXICO

INTO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES.  THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO

DISSIPATE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN

ARIZONA AFTER 24 HOURS.



THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON

THIS SYSTEM. BECAUSE OF THE FLOODING THREAT TO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED

STATES...FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC

ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION

CENTER...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPEP3 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ33 KWNH.



FORECASTER BLAKE/LAWRENCE

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INITIAL      19/1500Z 27.5N 112.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND

 12HR VT     20/0000Z 29.3N 111.8W    20 KT...INLAND

 24HR VT     20/1200Z 31.5N 111.0W    20 KT...INLAND

 36HR VT     21/0000Z...DISSIPATED

 

 

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