Expires:No;;997017
WTNT43 KNHC 030236
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  55
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT OCT 02 2004
 
THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN SHEARED TO THE EAST AND MOST OF THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EXPOSED.  ALSO WHAT CONVECTION THERE IS LEFT
HAS WARMED CONSIDERABLY.  A 21Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS MAX WINDS NEAR
50 KT AND DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT OR LESS.  SO THE INITIAL WIND
SPEED IS REDUCED TO 50 KT.  THE CENTER IS OVER THE 20 DEG SST
ISOTHERM OR LESS AND THE WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS A WHOPPING 40
KT.  SO LISA SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 060/23.  LISA IS BEING SWEPT ALONG IN THE
WESTERLIES AND WILL LIKELY ACCELERATE ITS FORWARD SPEED AND IS
EXPECTED TO BE ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.
 
THERE ARE MIXED SIGNALS ON THE STORMS THERMAL  STRUCTURE.  BOB HARTS
FSU CYCLONE PHASE ANALYSIS USING THE GFS AND CANADIAN 12Z MODEL
RUNS ANALYSES A COLD CORE STRUCTURE...WHILE THE UKMET IS WARM CORE
AND THE NOGAPS IS NEUTRAL.  IT IS ASSUMED THAT THE TRANSITION TO A
COLD CORE EXTRATROPICAL PHASE WILL BE COMPLETED IN THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS IF IT IS NOT ALREADY COMPLETED.  THIS WILL BE THE LAST
ADVISORY.  ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER
AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/0300Z 43.9N  31.6W    50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 12HR VT     03/1200Z 44.9N  25.9W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 24HR VT     04/0000Z 46.0N  17.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     04/1200Z...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
$$