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Jump to Chapter 4 Sections:
>> Conflicts since the Cold War >> Understanding conflict >> Windows of vulnerability and opportunity >> Foreign assistance, conflict management and conflict mitigation >> Guiding principles for encouraging stability >> Notes >> Background paper >> References
Since peaking in the early 1990's the number of new internal conflicts has been declining around the world-reason for cautious optimism. Although violence can always reappear or emerge along new lines in many parts of the world, the politics of violence appear to be slowly giving way to the politics of accommodation. Much can be learned from places where this change has occurred and from places where violence should have occurred but has not.
Consider the Russian Federation, where the central government has negotiated autonomy agreements with 40 of the country’s regions. Though far from perfect, these agreements may have helped avert the kind of ethnic and religious violence seen in Kosovo and Chechnya. They should serve as models for other countries and regions grappling with ethnic diversity and secessionist bids.
A peaceful, stable world order is a top priority for U.S. foreign policy, as President Bush described in the National Security Strategy, and foreign assistance can help achieve it. But before assessing the many programs that might be effective in addressing this challenge, it is crucial to first understand the issues involved. Otherwise, responses risk being ineffective at best and harmful at worst.
Conflict is complex. It does not happen just because people are unhappy or greedy, because a
country has resources to sustain it, or because state and social institutions are weak or perverse.
It happens when causes at multiple levels come together and reinforce one another. It is the product of deep grievances, political and economic competition, irresponsible leadership, weak and unaccountable institutions, and global and regional forces.
Thus interventions to contain conflict cannot focus on a single dimension of it, such as ethnic
tension or political exclusion. Nor can they be based at a single level, such as the community level
or national level, because gains in one area can easily be undermined by setbacks in another. It is
important to think about how problems emerge at multiple levels and how solutions can be developed
or strengthened at each level.
Such efforts are not a task solely for foreign assistance. They require close collaboration between
diplomacy, the military, international financial institutions, the international business community, and donors. And to support the collective crafting of effective and sustainable solutions, there first needs to be common understanding of the problem.
Conflict since the cold war
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