TAFB Forecast Products
Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB)
products include: marine High Seas Forecasts over the tropics and
subtropics, Offshore Waters Forecasts over the tropics and subtropics,
Tropical Weather Discussions over the tropics and subtropics, and surface
weather analyses and forecasts over the tropics, subtropics, and
mid-latitudes.
Many TAFB products are available over high seas radiofax on upper side-band
(USB). The TAFB
radiofax product transmission schedule and frequency list is transmitted
daily at 0630 and 1830 UTC. Transmission is from the United States Coast
Guard located at New Orleans, Louisiana and Pt. Reyes, California.
Here is more information on receiving tropical weather products at
sea
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/marine/home.htm
High Seas Forecasts
Nowcasts through 48-hour forecasts of winds, waves, and convection updated
every six hours, including any marine warnings for gale, storm, and tropical
cyclone conditions. Can also include information on reduced visibility and
other marine hazards.
Areas of responsibility: The Atlantic Ocean from
7°N to 31°N west of 35°W, including the Caribbean Sea and Gulf
of Mexico; the Northeast Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 30°N east of
140°W; and the Southeast Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 18.5°S
east of 120°W.
Offshore Waters Forecasts
Nowcasts through 5-day forecasts of winds, waves, and convection
(only nowcasts) updated every six hours. These include marine
warnings for gale, storm, and tropical cyclone conditions. Can also
include information on reduced visibility and other marine hazards.
Areas of responsibility:
The Atlantic Ocean south of 31°N west of 65°W and from
7°N to 22°N between 55°W and 65°W; the entire
Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico beyond the Coastal Waters
Forecast.
Graphic Products Legend
Here is an explanation of the symbols used in the various graphic
forecast and analysis products that follow (black
& white version).
Wind/Wave Forecasts
Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico
24-hour, 48-hour, and 72-hour wind-wave forecast for the western Atlantic,
Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico. Wind values are in knots and significant
wave heights are in feet. Significant wave height contours are defined
for the combined seas (the square root of the sum of the wind wave
height squared plus the primary swell height squared). The forecasts
are presented as full-color and black & white gifs.
Eastern Pacific
Nowcast, 24-hour, 48-hour, and 72-hour wind-wave forecast for the
eastern Pacific Ocean. Wind values are in knots and combined wind/sea
wave heights are in feet. The forecasts are presented as full-color and
black & white gifs.
Note: TIFF versions of most of these products may be
obtained from NWS Weather Charts
Surface Forecasts
Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico
24-hour, 48-hour, and 72-hour surface forecasts for the Atlantic, Caribbean,
and the Gulf of Mexico. Isobars are drawn at 4 mb intervals and
supplemented with 2 mb spacing as necessary.
Eastern Pacific
24-hour, 48-hour, and 72-hour surface forecasts for the Eastern Pacific
Ocean. Isobars are drawn at 4 mb intervals and supplemented with 2 mb
spacing as necessary.
Atlantic Sea State Analysis
Analysis of significant sea state at 3-foot height contour intervals. The
red arrows point along the primary swell direction (yellow arrows are actual
ship observations of swell direction). Analyses are presented as full-color
and black & white gifs.
Peak Wave Period / Primary Swell Direction
48-hour and 72-hour analysis of the period of the primary wave contoured
every 2 seconds, identifying either the locally generated wind/sea (in cases
with strong local winds) or the dominant wave system (swell) that is
generated elsewhere. The arrows point along the primary swell direction.
The charts are manually edited but are based on guidance from the WaveWATCH
III model. Analyses are presented as full-color and black & white gifs.
Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico
Eastern Pacific
Forecast | Issue Time UTC (B&W=black&white version) |
48-hour |
|
1200
B&W |
48-72 hour (2-panel) |
0000
B&W |
|
Tropical Cyclone Danger Areas
Note: The Tropical Cyclone Danger Areas graphic is only issued during the
hurricane season (1 June - 30 November for the Atlantic, 15 May - 30
November for the Eastern Pacific)
Current tropical cyclone forecast track and danger area for each system is
depicted as the shaded region in the graphic. Danger area is determined by
adding 100-200-300 nautical miles to the 24-48-72 hour forecast position and
maximum 34 knot wind radii respectively. The values used in determining
danger areas are based on the latest 10-year average error in forecast
tracks issued by the NHC. The TPC does not warrant that avoiding these
danger areas will eliminate the risk of harm from tropical cyclones.
Users operating in the vicinity of these systems are advised to continually
monitor the latest Forecast/Advisories from the NHC and proceed at their own
risk. The danger area will not be depicted from tropical cyclones that
transition to extratropical status. (B&W=black&white version)
Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico
Eastern Pacific
High Wind/Wave Graphic
Note: The High Wind/Wave Graphic is only issued outside of the hurricane
season (1 December - 31 May for the Atlantic, 1 December - 14 May for the
Eastern Pacific)
The High Wind/Wave Graphic coverage area for the Atlantic is from 5°N to
40°N between 35°W and 100°W and the area for the Pacific is from
the equator to 40°N between 75°W and 150°W. Current conditions
are depicted with information taken from the latest High Seas Forecasts
(HSF).
For both basins the wind threshold is sustained wind 25 knots or higher
south of 31°N (30°N for the Pacific) and gale conditions and higher
north of 31°N (30°N for the Pacific). Wave heights depicted
correspond to the wind conditions.
The Marine Prediction Center may
occasionally describe wind and wave conditions in the Gulf Stream. When this
occurs the north wall of the Gulf Stream (as given in the High Seas
Forecast) is depicted as a thick solid line with the associated wind and
wave conditions given.
Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico
Eastern Pacific
Satellite Products and Discussions
Tropical Weather and Marine Weather Discussions
The Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (TWD) is a narrative of significant
surface or upper level weather features including fronts, troughs, cyclones,
and anticyclones, and special feature discussions for systems such as
tropical cyclones or tropical disturbances. It also includes satellite-based
descriptions of significant weather. TAFB issues TWDs every six hours for
the Atlantic from the Equator to 32°N between Africa and roughly 100°W,
including the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico.
The Pacific TWD is similar but less detailed. It concentrates on surface
weather systems and satellite-based descriptions of significant weather.
TAFB issues Tropical Weather Discussions every six hours for the
northeastern Pacific from the Equator to 32°N east of 140°W.
Pan-American Temperature and Precipitation Table
A table summarizing the weather, temperatures, and rainfall for the
Caribbean and Central American countries, issued twice daily from 0000 UTC
and 1200 UTC data.
Satellite Rainfall Estimates
Satellite rainfall estimates for tropical cyclones or other significant
convective systems are produced when these systems threaten land. These
estimates employ infrared satellite imagery and satellite observed motion
estimates. Results are given in ranges of potential rainfall in
1-degree-wide semicircles to the left and right of the observed system
motion.
TAFB issues estimates when tropical cyclones or convective systems threaten
the Caribbean region or the southeastern United States. They are also issued
when eastern Pacific tropical cyclones threaten the west coast of
Mexico.
5-day Satellite Hovmöller diagrams
These are (rather large) experimental products and updates may be infrequent.
Upper-Air Time-Section Analysis
Time-Height (pressure) section analysis of upper-air soundings of wind
speed/direction and relative humidity for meteorological stations in the
southeast US, Central America, and the Caribbean.
Tropical Surface Analyses
Atlantic and Eastern Pacific (Wide Area)
Wide-area surface analysis for synoptic-scale systems with isobars every 4
millibars (2 millibars in the tropics) issued four times a day (0000 UTC,
0600 UTC, 1200 UTC, 1800 UTC). Analysis covers the region from 20°S to
50°N between the Greenwich Meridian westward to 160°W.
Southwest North Atlantic
A subsection of the Tropical Surface Analysis covering the region from the
Equator to 40°N, 40°W to 110°W. Issued four times a day at 0000,
0600, 1200, and 1800 UTC.
Caribbean Sea
A subsection of the Tropical Surface Analysis covering the region from
5°N to 25°N, 50°W to 95°W. Issued four times a day at 0000,
0600, 1200, and 1800 UTC.
Gulf of Mexico
A subsection of the Tropical Surface Analysis covering the region from
15°N to 35°N, 75°W to 105°W. Issued four times a day at
0000, 0600, 1200, and 1800 UTC.
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Surface Analysis
A subsection of the Tropical Surface Analysis covering the region from
5°S to 35°N, 75°W to 125°W. Issued four times a day at 0000,
0600, 1200, and 1800 UTC.
Streamline Analysis
Note: These products are presented in TIFF format from the
weather.noaa.gov servers. If you are having difficulty viewing the TIFF
images, then please read
this.
850 mb Streamline Analysis (Updated twice daily)
200 mb Streamline Analysis (Updated twice daily)
Sea Surface Temperature Analyses
A monthly one-degree global SST climatology produced once a week from
monthly optimum interpolation (OI) SST analyses with an adjusted base period
of 1950-79. The coverage is roughly between 40°S and 60°N globally.
The analyses are based on ship and buoy SST data supplemented by satellite
SST retrievals. In addition, SST climatology is derived from monthly
analyses using sea-ice coverage data over a 12-year period (1982-93). The
one-degree climatology resolves equatorial upwelling and fronts.
More information is available here.
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