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HOME > Expert Assessments > Hazards Assessment >
Latest Assessment
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Temperature / Wind
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Precipitation
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Soil / Wildfire
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Composite
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Valid Monday, October 18 - Friday, October 29, 2004
Summary of Forecasts & Hazards
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SYNOPSIS: At the start of the period the jet stream pattern over the Lower 48
States will be flowing west to east as a deep upper level trough continues
lifting out from the eastern states and a new trough is beginning to develop
over the western states. Unseasonably cold temperatures are expected for much
of the northernmost tier of states for the first day of the assessment period.
The models indicate that the jet stream flow will then amplify, with a trough
developing over the western states and moving into the middle of the nation.
This will support more stormy weather for the eastern half of the nation
during the middle of the assessment period, but bring some relief to drought
areas of the West. Some severe weather is indicated ahead of the trough as a
sharp short wave swings through the base of the trough and across the Southern
Plains and Midwest. During the later half of the period the flow is expected
to be progressive with moderate amplitude waves moving fairly quickly from
west to east. This should bring rather typical, changeable Fall weather to
much of the nation. Throughout the period seasonably stormy weather is
indicated for Alaska, with periods of gale force winds along the Aleutian
chain and west and south coasts.
HAZARDS
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Much below normal temperatures are expected for much of the northernmost tier
of states October 18.
Continued flooding is forecast over portions of Florida and southern Georgia
October 18 - 19.
Severe thunderstorms indicated from northeastern Texas to the southern half of
Missouri October 20 - 21.
A serires of strong storms, typical of the season, are likely to bring gales
the Aleutians and parts of the west and south coast of Alaska.
The wildfire risk continues across much of the far Southwest due to dry fuels
and long-term drought.
Long-term drought in the interior West will continue throughout the Assessment
period, with some relief expected.
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DETAILED SUMMARY
For Monday October 18 - Wednesday October 20, 2004: North of a frontal zone
much below normal temperatures are expected for much of the northernmost tier
of states on Oct 18. A long wave trough is forecast to amplify over the western
states and short wave impulses moving through this trough are expected to
modulate the periods of storminess in the generally unsettled weather ahead of
the through. One strong impulse is forecast to bring a chance of severe weather
from northeastern Texas to the southern half of Missouri by Oct. 20, although
there is still some uncertainty at this time range. Elsewhere, flooding is
expected to continue over portions of Florida and southern Georgia as the flat
land in those areas continues to slowly drain the water from earlier tropical
systems. A stormy period is anticipated for Alaska, with periods of gale force
winds winds expected for the Aleutians and much of Alaska's coast on Oct 18 and
19. Some precipitation is likely in drought areas, with some early season snow
possible for northern parts of the Plains as well as the northern Rockies.
For Thursday October 21 - Monday October 25, 2004: A trough is forecast to be
moving into the middle of the nation, bring stormy weather to portions of the
Plains and Mississippi Valley. There is a chance of severe weather from
northeastern Texas to the southern half of Missouri on Oct. 21, and the latest
model runs also forecast some locally heavy rainfall with this storm system.
The western area of long term drought is likely to continue through this
period, along with continuing periods of coastal gales in Alaska.
For Tuesday October 26 - Friday October 29, 2004: The western area of long
term drought is likely to continue through this period. Although the timing is
uncertain, the latest extended model runs indicate additional strong storms
for Alaska during this period. No other potential hazards can be reliably
identified at this time.
Click here for a discussion of the GFS Ensemble forecasts.
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Please consult local NWS Forecast Offices
for short range forecasts and region-specific information.
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