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EuroChoices
Volume 2, Number
3, 2003
Agricultural Economics
Society,
Hampshire, UK
and
European Association
of Agricultural Economists,
The Hague, Netherlands
“Can Russia
be Competitive
in Agriculture?”
Pages 18-23
by William M.
Liefert, Stefan R. Osborne, Olga Liefert, and Michael
A. Trueblood
For more
information,
contact:
William
M. Liefert
Stefan R. Osborne
or Olga Liefert
http://www.ers.usda.gov
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 At
the beginning of Russia’s economic reform in the early
1990s, Western observers predicted that effective reform could
transform Russia from being a big importer of grain into a
major exporter. During the 1990s, this prediction did not
materialize, since in most years Russia was either a small
grain exporter or importer. Russia, however, did become a
large importer of beef, pork, and poultry. In 2001 and 2002,
Russia had substantial grain exports of 7 and 16 million metric
tons, though favorable weather clearly played a key role in
this development. This article examines whether Russia can
be competitive in world agricultural markets and how increased
competitiveness would affect the country’s agricultural
trade.
Russia is the top foreign market for U.S. poultry exports.
The analysis finds that Russia currently is uncompetitive
in the production of meat, and so may continue for the next
decade as a big importer of poultry (mainly from the United
States) and of beef and pork (mainly from the European Union).
Russia is more competitive in grain than in meat. If agricultural
reform continues at the relatively slow pace of the 1990s,
Russia is expected to be a moderate-sized grain exporter of
about 4 to 5 million tons in most years. With more accelerated
reform, however, and a fast pace of productivity increases,
Russian’s annual grain exports could go as high as 15
to 20 million tons. Such volumes would be large enough to
reduce world grain prices.
EEJS-04-04
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